I spent a larger part of this morning rereading a
@CJIDAfrica report we published a few years ago on the expansion of Boko Haram and related extremist groups beyond their traditional strongholds. As I see the part we highlighted on Northern Oyo, I feel so sad that some of our predictions turned out to be correct, and we are now dealing with the cost of inaction with the kidnap of the school kids and their teachers.
Today, forests and nature reserves are becoming governance vacuums with armed actors embedding themselves within communities before openly asserting control. The strategic use of generosity, protection, and economic incentives to build local legitimacy. Reading it in 2026 felt less like reading history and more like reading a commentary on current events.
Which raises a question I have been thinking about:
What happens to warnings after they are written?
Not just this report as there are several investigations, intelligence briefs, community complaints, research findings and countless documents produced every year identifying vulnerabilities before they become crises.
Our public conversations often begin after tragedy. By then, everyone is looking for solutions in state police, forest guards, and more deployments.
But what if part of the challenge is not the absence of information?
What if the challenge is our inability to absorb, connect, and act on what we already know?
For those interested, the report is attached below
thecjid.org/wp-content/uploa…