$YB
IMO if you talk about stocks publicly, you also have to be transparent about your losers. Yuanbao is one of those losers for me.
The stock has lost more than 50% since my writeup at the end of July 25. I completely sold my position on May 12th and rotated the money into HROW.
The frustrating part is that my assessment of the business in the deep dive was spot on. The fundamental development played out almost exactly as I expected: top-line growth of >30% in the quarters following my analysis, coupled with expanding margins and outstanding cash generation. But none of that helped the stock price.
The market seemingly couldn't care less that the stock is now trading at an NTM FCF yield of probably 45% and a fwd PE of roughly 2.5, while currently holding 97% (!) of its market cap in cash & equivalents on the balance sheet.
In my writeup back then, I correctly highlighted selling pressure from legacy shareholders and the low free float as risks. However, I clearly underestimated their magnitude. It seems the early VC investors are creating constant selling pressure by offloading their shares. Consequently, the chart looks absolutely catastrophic, and not just since today’s news regarding
$FUTU and
$TIGR.
Of course, management's ongoing refusal to initiate shareholder returns, despite hinting at it multiple times during earnings calls, isn't helping as well. At the current valuation, a C-suite that actually cares about its shareholders should be announcing a buyback program for >50% of the outstanding shares. Why this still hasn't happened is beyond me.
Ultimately, before selling, I asked myself whether I would average down again, and the answer was no. With HROW, I had that conviction, which is why I rotated my money.
Of course, all of you should know that I’m not giving financial advice here, but I am still truly sorry for anyone who discovered the stock through me and lost money on it.
But I guess losing is just part of the investing game.