People keep confusing a bubble with “stocks go up and get overvalued”. A bubble is when when a prevailing trend and a prevailing misconception about that trend interact reflexively, each reinforcing the other until the gap between perception and reality becomes unsustainable. A bubble is not when everyone realizes that right now every iota of AI demand eventually, at some point upstream, must move through memory OEMs. Nor is it when estimates continue rising because things are better than expected. And it’s not just when stocks trade expensive to historical valuations. The reason behind the moves in the AI infrastructure layer so far have been simply that we don’t have enough. They’ve been driven by the fundamental reality more than the perception of the future. It’s why the bulk of the most bullish parts of this cycle have been lumpy and centered around earnings season when companies uniformly come out and confirm there’s still not enough. In the bubble, the reality is driven by the market - not the other way around. Everyone keeps saying “people are gonna freak out if it’s not a bubble!”. I think that’s silly, we have a transformative new technology that needs crazy capital to fuel it coming to fruition, that has and always will result in a bubble as long as we have financial markets. But if you want to call the top in a bubble, you need a much stronger view on what the misconception is and what negative catalyst forces broad perception to align with realizing it than you do on valuation.

Taiwan makes the most important chips and AI infrastructure on earth, then trades them on a market with 10% daily price limits and a "disposition" rule that freezes hot stocks the moment they move. Worldbclass fabs, an exchange a decade behind. Hope the new rules fix it.

1/2 Macronix (2337.TW). Pounded the table on SK Hynix in Nov 25 and that worked out. I think this one could be as good or better. Q1 GM went 17% to 40.8% YoY. April revenue 154%, record.eMMC prices doubled MoM. Trading ~13x FY26. Coverage hasn't shown up yet.

With Climate Doomerism fading, AI Doomerism will become as the central organizing catastrophe on the Left. It justifies their takeover of the economy and especially the information space. And it has enough pseudoscience and Hollywood storytelling behind it to seem compelling.

Google parent Alphabet on Monday announced a plan to issue $80 billion in equity to finance enormous capital expenditures tied to the artificial intelligence race on.wsj.com/4dYLLGE

American sex symbol Jayne Mansfield in the unlikely setting of the directors' box at White Hart Lane where she saw Spurs beat Wolves 5-1, October 10th 1959. Mansfield was filming Too Hot To Handle in the UK. She also found time to open the Chiswick Flyover!

UBS Desk: "I can’t remember a time when I have received so many inquiries from one our research reports than this $MU report did not to mention the level of controversy it created (Tim actually received a few rogue threatening emails not cool…)"

April: Macronix revenue 154% YoY, an all-time record. That's the MLC scarcity showing up in real numbers for the first time. Taiwan reports monthly, so the thesis gets proven or broken every 30 days. That number is the signal. Everything in between is noise.

SECRETARY RUBIO: The straits have to be open. What’s happening there is illegal. It’s unsustainable for the world and it’s unacceptable.

$MU is now up about 200% since the TurboQuant lows, back when Google solved the memory crisis

Just in: SK Hynix’s market cap has surpassed $1 trillion.

Ahead of COMPUTEX, the two most important CEOs on the planet right now Jensen Huang and TSMC CEO C.C. Wei, having dinner together and celebrating decades long partnership FYI, $NVDA accounted for 20% of $TSMC revenue $40B dollars and they don’t have a a single legal agreement 🤯

🚨 | Luca Cordero di Montezemolo on the new Ferrari Luce: "If I said what I really think, I'd harm Ferrari. We're risking the destruction of a myth, I'm very sorry about that. I hope they at least remove the Prancing Horse from that car"