A closed human population needs about 500 women of reproductive age (15-45) to remain biologically viable in the medium run. That number is not what drives a population to zero: sub-replacement fertility does that on its own. The 500-floor mark is the point of no return: the size below which the gene pool is too narrow to recover, even if fertility later bounces back. In a hypothetical scenario where Thailand maintains its total fertility rate (TFR) at the 2025 level of 0.87 and has no immigration, its population of women of reproductive age would fall below 500, entering the extinction-risk zone, around the year 2445. We can play with the numbers a bit (extending the fertile-age window, for example, or lowering the floor through medical advances), but the message holds. Any population that remains below replacement eventually goes extinct. I make this point because when I write statements of the form “with its current TFR, country A will have a population of X in the year 2200,” I hear the reply “we can live with that.” That reply misreads the year-2200 population as a new stationary point. No, it is just a snapshot of a population still in decline. Sub-replacement fertility has no resting place above zero. Now, one can legitimately argue that as the population falls, the TFR will rise again, perhaps due to cheaper housing or the selection of groups with higher fertility. (The “more natural resources per capita” story I trust least: the demographic transition broke the old Malthusian link between abundance and fertility, so in modern conditions the sign runs the other way.) These are possible mechanisms, and we can discuss another day whether, given the current evidence, they will be enough to get back to replacement (my two cents: I have run some quantitative simulations, and the answer is likely “no”). I only want to force everyone to accept the realities of demographic accounting. If you tell me “we can live with that,” you are asking me to buy two separate claims: 1) that we can go from population X to 0.05X without a major social breakdown, and 2) that we will not only avoid that breakdown but also bring the TFR back to replacement by the time we reach 0.05X.

Productivity growth and equality track each other closely.

While we await for the deal, I think we can already highlight a few oil lessons: 1) Although we don’t yet understand how, China can reduce oil imports massively (>5m b/d cut) 2) Saudi/UAE bypass pipelines work 3) OECD nations can release their SPR at flow rates of >2.5m b/d

Good morning my loves, happy Saturday. Sorry I've been quiet, obviously been busy, but thought it'd be nice to give you all the details on the multi-strategy absolute return program that experienced the 28% drawdown this year. (1/n)