This is a sobering take. For research, intelligence may mean better search and more derived from existing knowledge.
But that hits a wall, we produce information through empirical experimentation, which is bottlenecked by experiment time, often the speed the universe moves at.
This highlights the need for a high-fidelity and high-speed means to run simulations. We've understood this problem for a while and numerous fields are producing simulations for study where we don't have closed form understandings, like weather modeling, markets, etc.
I think the drug trial example is a solid thought experiment
- no closed-form model of what will happen, we have to run experiments to see what will happen, which can take months, years, or more to really capture long-term effects
- Intelligence can help us interpret results, choose better hypotheses, connect the dots to other knowledge, build models from observations, but given what knowledge is actually established, it cannot shortcut us to a full closed-form understanding where we could start with a molecule and predict an EXACT outcome for a given biology
Accelerating drug trial research (and other fields that need empirical studies) comes to, I think:
- Simulation fidelity and speed: improving models for the extremely diverse and varied response to a drug, with the goal of it being faster than real life, unbiased (not giving incorrect information), and high-fidelity (model is complex enough to provide something of value even if not as high resolution as reality)
- More closed-form understandings: The more we can predict within some level of noise, with a reliable equation, whether thats drug metabolization half-life, absorption rates, neuron desensitization expectations etc.
Ultimately, AI will likely help with both of the above, we feasibly could see a speedup in drug research, but it has fundamental obstacles before recursively improving just snipes it into instant solves
Anthropic is questioning whether AI may turn out to be altogether useless. This is the single most honest thing Anthropic has ever written.
“But achieving recursive improvement alone does not suggest an immediate change in how industrial production occurs, societies organize, or markets function. More intelligence can’t learn what a drug does over decades of use, can’t hold elections sooner than a constitution dictates, and can’t turn a stranger into an old friend in a weekend. For most people, the felt pace of this future will still be set by the bottlenecks, even if the laboratory upstream runs at the speed of compute. That collision, where recursive intelligence building itself ever faster meets the world of humans, relationships, and governance, is another part of this future we can’t predict.”