My biotech long/short basket for 2026. Long: $CADL, $SRPT, $NMRA, $LXRX Short: $FLNA, $QURE, $GALT Expected returns: 3mo: 12% 6mo: 23% 12mo: 32% Not good vs bad companies. The market is mispricing catalyst risk over the next 6-12 months. — The long side is simple. I want names where the market is underpricing a real 2026 catalyst, real product traction, or a regulatory path better than the stock implies. Best longs: $CADL and $SRPT Highest-risk long: $NMRA Slow-burn long: $LXRX — $CADL — cleanest small-cap long. ~$4.87 / ~$280M mcap Expected upside: ~55% Window: Q2-Q4 2026 Prostate cancer data updates, biomarker readout, planned Q4 BLA. Cash into Q1 2028. One clean update can re-rate the whole name. — $SRPT — damaged, not dead. ~$21.79 / ~$1.9B mcap Expected upside: ~40% Window: 2026 Market still pricing the 2025 safety/regulatory panic as permanent. But ELEVIDYS is a real commercial product with meaningful revenue and a Japan launch adding credibility. Thesis isn't "everything is fixed." It's "too much permanent damage is priced in." — $NMRA — the binary long. ~$2.06 / ~$295M mcap Expected upside: ~25% EV, much higher if data hit Window: Q2 2026 Market hates it after KOASTAL failed. Fair. But KOASTAL-2 and KOASTAL-3 are fully enrolled and read out together Q2 2026. Not the safest long. It's the lottery ticket where upside dominates if data surprise. — $LXRX — boring asymmetric long. ~$1.71 / ~$491M mcap Expected upside: ~25% Window: 2026 to Q1 2027 ZYNQUISTA regulatory path in 2026, SONATA-HCM topline Q1 2027, better cash position after Novo milestones. Not the biggest upside name but the price looks too dismissive. — The short side isn't "these go to zero." These are stocks pricing too much regulatory optimism, too much story value, or too much credit for weak evidence. Best short: $FLNA Most valuation-risk: $QURE Messiest but still overpriced: $GALT — $FLNA (formerly $SAVA) — cleanest short. ~$1.62 / ~$141M mcap Expected downside: ~35% Fair value: ~$0.85-$1.05 Window: mid-2026 Alzheimer's story failed. Company renamed. New TSC epilepsy angle is early/preclinical and under FDA clinical hold. Cash expected to drop hard by June 2026 from burn litigation. Still overvalued for what's left. — $QURE — overpriced regulatory optimism. ~$17.92 / ~$3.2B mcap Expected downside: ~25-30% Fair value: ~$11-$13 Window: Q2-Q3 2026 AMT-130 may have real signal — this isn't a zero thesis. But FDA pushed back on Ph I/II external-control data and recommended a randomized sham-controlled study. Path is longer and messier than the stock prices. — $GALT — weaker-evidence short. ~$2.35 / ~$150M mcap Expected downside: ~20-25% Fair value: ~$1.60-$1.85 Window: Q2 to early Q3 2026 Not a "fake science" short. The issue is the bull case leans on per-protocol, biomarker, and subgroup arguments instead of a clean primary win. Shouldn't trade like a clean pivotal-data story. — Basket math: Longs: CADL 55%, SRPT 40%, NMRA 25% EV, LXRX 25% Shorts: FLNA 35%, QURE 25-30%, GALT 20-25% Equal-weight L/S basket: 3mo: 12% | 6mo: 23% | 12mo: 32% — The whole bet: Long the names where 2026 catalysts are underpriced. Short the names where the story trades cleaner than the evidence. Biggest risks: NMRA data fail, QURE gets a friendly FDA path, SRPT safety overhang worsens.