El Niño is coming… and it could be a big one! The Forecasted atmospheric response to the onset of El Niño looks very similar to what we saw in 1997-98. There is a pretty subtle but significant difference between the 2026 forecast and 1997 though… and that is the El Niño is being forecast to extend much further west into the Central Pacific than it did in 1997. If you look very closely you can see the green rising air is forecast to be much further west into the Pacific than it was in 1997. If true, remember it still is just a forecast at this point, it would mean that the weather pattern we see in the US would not necessarily be the same weather pattern we saw in 1997-98. So before you get carried away with “Winter is Over” talk here in May… just remember the positioning of these large scale atmospheric circulation cells (called Walker Cells) is very important with regard to precipitation patterns. If you’re in the part of the circulation cell that enhances upward motion, you’ll see more rainfall, however if you’re in a part of the circulation cell that enhances sinking motion, you’ll see less rainfall. For example, during a typical El Niño pattern the sinking portion of a Walker cell is usually positioned over the Tropical Atlantic Ocean which tends to inhibit hurricane development. ~Meteorologist Mark Margavage #wxtwitter #wxX #Tropicalwx