JPMorgan Reiterates Overweight Rating on
$MRVL, Maintains PT at $130
Analyst comments: "Marvell is set to report earnings Thursday, and we expect a continued volume ramp of its two large AI ASIC programs (Amazon Trainium 2 ASIC/Google Axion ARM CPU), strong demand for its 800G products, and the initial ramp of 1.6T optical DSPs. This is combined with a continued cyclical recovery in its enterprise and carrier segments. Overall, we expect April-quarter results (we estimate $1.875 billion, up 3% quarter-over-quarter) and July-quarter guidance (we expect $2.00 billion , up 7% quarter-over-quarter) to be in line with JPMorgan and consensus estimates, with solid datacenter growth led by its AI ASIC ramps, growth in 800G/1.6T AI optical shipments, 400ZR shipments, and HDD/SSD controllers. The remainder of its business should also show sequential growth driven by cyclical improvements and new product cycles.
Recall that the team reaffirmed its April-quarter revenue outlook in early May. Since then, we believe accelerated compute demand remains strong, as indicated during earnings season from cloud and hyperscaler capex spending and AI infrastructure beneficiaries (e.g., MTSI, ALAB). On custom ASICs, the team continues its production ramp at Amazon with the Trainium 2 AI XPU ASIC, and as we recently highlighted, we believe Marvell’s Trainium 3 (3nm) program at AWS is progressing well and is on track to ramp in calendar year 2026 in high volumes. We also believe Marvell’s Microsoft AI ASIC MAIA Gen 2 (3nm) program is on track for a CY26 ramp, and Marvell has already won the Gen 3 MAIA (2nm/3nm chiplet – 3DSOIC) program, with production planned for a CY27/28 ramp.
Within the optical business, 800G PAM4 optical DSP orders and shipments remain solid, with an increasing ramp of next-gen 1.6T DSP into the second half of the year. Overall, we estimate the team will drive $4 billion in total AI ASICs and networking revenues this year. In the cyclical business, demand from enterprise networking (Cisco) remains healthy, and demand in carrier infrastructure is stabilizing. In automotive, the divestiture of the auto business, expected to close in CY25 ($225–$250 million revenue in FY26), is a revenue headwind but should be accretive to earnings by $0.05–$0.10, assuming proceeds are used for share repurchases.
More importantly, we see the team’s custom datacenter and AI ASIC pipeline continuing to expand (SmartNIC/DPU ASIC chips, HBM4 base die controller ASICs, eSSD controller ASICs, follow-on AI accelerator ASIC wins). We maintain our Overweight rating, as we see the team’s AI ASIC, optical, cloud, and storage segments continuing to drive solid growth while cyclical 5G and enterprise businesses recover."
Analyst: Harlan Sur