This is a great analysis,
@VishnuNDTV sir. A country cannot base its national security on assumptions or optimism alone. The only sensible path is to push the AMCA program with Indian private sector, at scale and with urgency, while creating a robust domestic aerospace ecosystem and resilient supply chain.
Until then, we remain heavily dependent on geopolitics and to some extent, the mercy of fate.
The Tejas Mk 2 enters service in meaningful numbers in the mid-2030s, assuming it ticks boxes. Reminder: the prototype has still not rolled out. It will probably be the world's only NEW fourth generation, non-stealth jet entering squadron service at that stage. Being non-stealth in that period is being obsolete. The Rafale is already in service with the IAF presently. If a agreement can be arrived at this year for more, we could see the first new deliveries of the jet to the F4/5 config starting in 2028. There is no getting away from the Rafale. Its a jet in service already, the existing ones will be upgraded to the new standard as well. What India needs is the AMCA to fill the stealth void. But don't count on that for close to another decade.