one must imagine oneself cozy
Joined July 2011
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- Followers 42,644
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17,894 Photos and videos
number one rule in life
Don’t get confused.
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cozy retweeted
Jun 12
The 25-delta BTC put in MA #69 worked because direction, vol, and convexity were one trade in the last regime, stacked onto a single cheap line because the down move and the vol spike printed together when compression broke.
Crypto sold off 18%, and the trade hit 6.4x.
Jun 10
The 25-delta BTC put flagged in MA #69 has gone 6.4x as 1W ATM vol blew out from 30% to 50% over two weeks.
Monday Alpha #70 covers the four catalysts that converged and what to roll into now. Here's a summary:
x.com/KyanExchange/status/20…
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cozy retweeted
Jun 10
The 25-delta BTC put flagged in MA #69 has gone 6.4x as 1W ATM vol blew out from 30% to 50% over two weeks.
Monday Alpha #70 covers the four catalysts that converged and what to roll into now. Here's a summary:
x.com/KyanExchange/status/20…
Jun 8
The Alpha is free on Mondays 🔵
The Kyan x @Sellingvol Monday Alpha 70 is out!
Told You Vol Was Cheap
TL;DR: The vol was mispriced, the hedge was cheap, and now the regime has flipped.
Read it on the Kyan blog
blog.kyan.blue/p/monday-alph…
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ocarina of time has been released twice before gta 6
The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time will be reborn on Nintendo Switch 2 in 2026. #NintendoDirect
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Just in case you aren't already burning your Claude tokens fast enough
INTEL: Anthropic will release Claude Fable later today, a safeguarded Mythos-class model priced about 2x Claude Opus, after initial Mythos pricing was 5x Opus, The Information says
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cozy retweeted
Jun 9
A perp long that got liquidated last week lost 100% of its margin. Not because the thesis was wrong, but because the wick touched the liq price.
Now price the mirror: BTC sits at $63.7K. A 30-day $60K/$55K put spread costs about $1,000 to put on. That $1,000 is your max loss. If BTC closes at $55K or below, it pays $5K, so you net roughly $4K.
The same wick that zeroed the long was a clean, pre-sized payoff for whoever owned the downside.
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cozy retweeted
Jun 8
The Alpha is free on Mondays 🔵
The Kyan x @Sellingvol Monday Alpha 70 is out!
Told You Vol Was Cheap
TL;DR: The vol was mispriced, the hedge was cheap, and now the regime has flipped.
Read it on the Kyan blog
blog.kyan.blue/p/monday-alph…
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cozy retweeted
Jun 7
Marty's closing line in Monday Alpha #69 two weeks ago: "Vol is meant to be sold, until it is not. We are entering weird territory that could introduce a vol spike and knock out all these sellers."
BTC was still at $77K, and vol surface had just compressed 21 vols in 3 months.
May 25
The Alpha is free on Mondays 🔵
The Kyan x @Sellingvol Monday Alpha 69 is out!
TL;DR: Gave It Back, Got a Deal
Vol collapsed, skew steepened, an now diplomacy decides direction.
Read it on the Kyan blog
blog.kyan.blue/p/monday-alph…
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cozy retweeted
Jun 5
Being directionally right on BTC and losing money on a naked call is what pushes most traders into spreads, where you pay less premium for capped upside.
What strikes would you pick for a spread with spot near 61k?
Full walkthrough on the Kyan blog:
blog.kyan.blue/p/call-spread…
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‼️🚨 A new npm supply-chain attack compromised 57 packages across over 286 malicious versions in under 2 hours. The attackers used self-replicating malware, a new version of the Miasma worm, which also used evasion techniques to stay under the radar.
The payload targets CI/CD and developer credentials, including GitHub Actions secrets, cloud credentials, Vault tokens, SSH keys, npm and GitHub tokens, and password-manager stores. This variant also injects AI coding assistant config files at `.claude`, `.cursor`, `.gemini`, and `.vscode` paths, a separate persistence and repo-poisoning angle.
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cozy retweeted
Jun 3
On-chain perps moved $X trillion last year
Options are trading about 1% of that, which most of the timeline takes as evidence that options are a small cousin to perps.
The same ratio used to describe perps versus spot back in 2017, and that framing didn't age well.
May 4
The Kyan Mainnet is open. The waitlist is gone.
Any wallet, just sign in and start trading. Options, perps, portfolio margin, 6-leg combos, zero trading fees.
Referrals are live, and Krystal rewards are accruing on all your activity
app.kyan.blue
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Kyan coded
Jun 1
Building index-tracking assets on top of options instead of debt
ethresear.ch/t/building-inde…
What if the use options as the base of defi, instead of CDPs and liquidations? So instead of extreme price movements creating a sharp and global "you get liquidated" effect, instead your exposure to the index diverges quadratically from your preferred exposure in a smoother way?
A key benefit is getting rid of the need for instant oracles, and instead making everything work on top of "slow oracles" (ie. the type that prediction markets use)
This design has a significant downside - the need to do regular rebalancing - and an open question of whether and how this rebalancing can be made slippage-resistant enough. But it's worth considering and trying IMO. I would feel much safer holding algostables inside something like this, than in something that depends on an oracle that has to give real-time answers (and therefore could be tricked into giving wrong real-time answers with no time for human recourse).
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Krystal farming is live.
Every trade counts.
Jun 1
May was the month the Kyan waitlist closed for good and the rewards system came online, with Krystals accruing on every trade.
The full wrap-up has the rest of what shipped this month and the numbers behind it:
blog.kyan.blue/p/kyan-monthl…
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