Delighted that the paper I'm proudest of has just been accepted for publication at @BJPolS 🥳 In it, we investigate global trends in political trust, using data from 50 different survey projects! Check out the pre-print here: osf.io/preprints/osf/puekh And some results below👇

Ég er svo ógeðslega hræddur um að flokkar komist til valda hérna sem ætla að hrófla við borgarlínunni. Bara rétt fikta nógu mikið í henni, til þess að þetta hætti að vera hágæða verkefni og verði þess í stað hin dæmigerða íslenska æpa. Þetta er það eina sem ég hef verið spenntur fyrir í Reykjavík, síðan ég man eftir mér. Ég finn að ég er byrjaður að þróa með mér svona kaldhæðna- brynju um niðurstöður kosninganna. Eins og mér sé dröll, en mér er ekki dröll. Ég keyri heavy mikið, þú veist stundum 2000km á mánuði. Tek strætó heavy mikið. Hjóla smá. á þrjú börn, hund. Með allt í gangi. Leiðakerfi og tíðni borgarlínunnar myndi gjörbreyta því hvernig ég fer um, þó ég myndi samt mest hossast á bíl. Mér finnst engar gáfulegar umræður hafa farið fram um borgarlínuna fyrir þessar kosningar. Þeir sem eru á móti, og eru með einhverjar þriðja flokks útfærslur að stinga upp á staðinn - nálgast borgarlínuna sem samgönguverkefni, en hún er svo miklu miklu miklu meira. Að láta eins og þetta sé einhver trilljarða bein fyrir Samfylkinga-fólk, bara plís. Þetta er sérsniðin lausn sem mun koma einstaklega vel við borgarbúa, sama hvort þeir nýti sér vagnana eða ekki. Hún saumar saman borg sem fúnkerar illa, hún mætir þörfum yngri kynslóðar og hún kallar á mjög organíska þéttingu, þar sem þjónusta og íbúðir byggjast í grennd við stoppistöðvar. Bara umræðurnar um Suðurlandsbrautina, hafa aldrei farið dýpra en hróp og köll um að það sé verið að þrengja umferð. Hefur fólk kynnt sér hvernig skipulagið við Suðurlandsbrautina er? Það er ógeðslega flott og ógeðslega spennandi, býr til alvöru borgargötu í gegnum Reykjavík. Þarna mun vera stræti stútfullt af þjónustu og íbúum við fokking þjóðarleikvanginn! Og á þessari leið, í götum fyrir ofan er ennþá bara mikið af húsnæði sem stendur autt eða er í dularfullri notkun, þar sem eitthvað spennandi getur kviknað, ólíkt því steríla drasli sem sem getur greitt leigu í því nýbyggða. Það er einhver dýpt farin úr umræðunum um þetta. Og þvílík vonbrigði að sjá eftir Hildi Björns fara þennan veg. Þetta er manneskja sem ég hef heyrt tala af innlifun um borgarlínuna. Þetta er manneskja sem hefur hingað til staðið keik og kosið með öllum þeim ákvörðunum sem hafa komið þessu verkefni á þann stað sem það er í dag. Og svo er hún mætt til Tóta að hnussa og fussa og láta eins og þetta sé eitthvað tómt píp úr einhverjum galgopum á Kaffi Vest. Djöfulsins drasl. Allavega þegar við Hildur hittumst á Hosiló í vetur og hún spurði mig hvort ég vildi taka sæti á lista Sjálfstæðisflokksins fyrir komandi kosningar - þá var hún talsmaður Borgarlínunnar. Hvað gerðist í millitíðinni - ég veit það ekki. Það er fólk í framboði, það er fólk sem mun enda í borgarstjórn sem segist ætla að byggja íbúðir í útjaðri Reykjavíkur og laga umferðina - þau segja þetta oft í sömu setningu. Þau ætla að laga umferðina með því að bæta við bílum í hana. Ég veit ekki alveg hvað maður segir við þessu. Er þinn frambjóðandi heimskur? eða er hann lygari? Það verður ekki bæði haldið og sleppt. Það sem við spörum með því að þynna út Reykjavík, því töpum við svo í umferðinni - og öfugt. Borgarlínan er svo fokking vandað verkefni. Og það er ekki að ástæðulausu að það eru bara gamlir karlar sem skrifa greinar gegn henni - (og enginn þeirra minnist á skipulagsþáttinn) Á að neyða fólk upp í borgarlínuna? Nei maður. Alls ekki. En þú ert neyddur til að borga skatta mánaðarlega og pls setjum þá í eitthvað sem er alvöru. En þú veist, líklega mun þetta fara til fjandans. Ég jafna mig, heima vorum við Alþýðubandalagsfólk á meðan Davíð Oddsson var Davíð Oddsson og við kunnum þá list að éta skít betur en aðrir. Ég verð samt að reykja vindil og hlusta á rapp. (Að gefnu tilefni, hef aldrei kosið Samfylkinguna og myndi aldrei taka sæti á lista Sjálfstæðisflokksins)

Antivaxers died at disproportionate rates. This isn't the flex you think it is...

North Korea is a democracy. It's name is Democratic People's Republic.

Republicans in 2021: Kyle Rittenhouse is a hero for being armed at a political protest. Republicans in 2026: Alex Pretti is a domestic terrorist who deserved to die for being armed at a political protest.

Statement from Alex Pretti’s parents, Michael and Susan Pretti: “We are heartbroken but also very angry. Alex was a kindhearted soul who cared deeply for his family and friends and also the American veterans whom he cared for as an ICU nurse at the Minneapolis VA hospital. Alex wanted to make a difference in this world. Unfortunately he will not be with us to see his impact. I do not throw around the hero term lightly. However his last thought and act was to protect a woman. The sickening lies told about our son by the administration are reprehensible and disgusting. Alex is clearly not holding a gun when attacked by Trump’s murdering and cowardly ICE thugs. He has his phone in his right hand and his empty left hand is raised above his head while trying to protect the woman ICE just pushed down all while being pepper sprayed. Please get the truth out about our son. He was a good man. Thank you.”

RT @mehdirhasan: The people who spent years defending and even lionizing Kyle Rittenhouse and Ashli Babbitt now want us to believe that an…

Seems to me that if you're going to film ICE actions in the USA, you need to use an app that: 1) Uploads to the cloud somewhere in real time so that the footage is preserved if they (illegally?) take your phone off you. 2) Has a "panic button" function that auto-sends the footage to trusted third parties and/or posts it to social media if you haven't hit it for x minutes/hours. Means if your phone is taken, the signal gets out.

He shot her out of anger, not fear for his life

“Just do what they say & you won’t get hurt” is what you tell hostages, not free people.

Two major shootings from yesterday are making the news. One was in Sydney, Australia, which has not had a mass shooting on this level in 30 years. 11 people were killed. One was at Brown University in the USA, which hasn't had a mass shooting in... two weeks. 12 people were shot. There have been 389 mass shootings in the USA this year. Today is the anniversary of the Sandy Hook massacre. The Sydney shooter was heroically stopped by a Muslim fruit shop owner named Ahmed al Ahmed (video below). The Brown shooter is a white male, possibly in his 30s, who was arrested after a manhunt involving hundreds of officers over at least 10 hours of searching. So tell me why all the "centrist" pundits and news shows are all focusing on one thing: the religion of the Sydney shooter.

A few reminders of what Trump said in the lead up to Jan 6th December 19th: “Big protest in D.C. on January 6th. Be there, will be wild!” December 26th: “We will never give up. We will never concede.” December 27th: “Just say the election was corrupt and leave the rest to me and the Republican congressmen.” December 30th: “We’re going to fight like hell. If you don’t fight, you’re not going to have a country anymore.” December 31st: “We’ve won this election. They just don’t want to admit it. We’ll see what happens on January 6th….The people are angry.” Jan 3rd: “They’re not taking this White House. We’re going to fight like hell.” Jan 4th: “If the Democrats take control, we’re not going to have a country anymore… You have to get your people to fight.” Jan 5th: “Washington is being inundated with people who don’t want to see an election victory stolen. Our country has had enough, they won’t take it anymore!” On Jan 6th itself Trump over roughly 70 minutes used the words “fight”, “fighting” or “fighters” more than 20 times.

Það er ekki "tölfræðileg staðreynd" að Íslendingar séu að lenda í minnihluta í eigin landi, það gefur sér þá forsendu að næstu áratugi muni ca. enginn aðfluttur Íslendingur í raun vera Íslendingur. Jafnvel þau sem munu hafa búið hér í áratugi.

⚠️TYLENOL & AUTISM—RFK Jr and Trump are wrong—the largest & best study in the world in 2.5 MILLION KIDS—found no increased autism risk with acetaminophen (aka paracetamol, Tylenol) use by the mother during pregnancy. A crude unadjusted analysis found only a preliminary 5% risk, but once you adjust for family by matching using sibling controls (who didn’t get autism), the even tiny 5% risk vaporizes to 0% 📉. (Fun fact: I used to do drug safety epidemiology and have been whistleblower against big pharma when their drugs were dangerous—so I know a few things about drug safety data). Thread 🧵.

To be clear: It's not "ABC pulls Jimmy Kimmel after comments about Charlie Kirk," it's "ABC pulls Jimmy Kimmel after threats from Trump FCC chair" The distinction matters here.

“Josh Shapiro’s arsonist was pro-Palestinian.” Yes, but the suspect was also apparently bipolar. He strongly criticized Biden, and his brother said he pushed family to vote for Trump in 2024. “Melissa Hortman’s assassin was a Walz appointee.” Yes, the suspect was on a low-profile, non-partisan board. He was also a deeply religious anti-abortion conservative, according to family, and a Trump supporter, according to friends. He had a hit list full of Democrats, per the local US Attorney. “The left tried to assassinate Trump.” Thomas Matthew Crooks once donated a small amount to a liberal group. But the group was known for misleading fundraising pitches, and he later unsubscribed from their list, per CBS News. He was also a registered Republican, and his ideology largely remains a black box.

It's sad that many of the people on the right denouncing left-wing extremism have said nothing about an attack in Denver by a perp with right-wing extremist views that happened the same day Charlie Kirk was shot. All this is completely horrifying, especially if you are a parent. There is something really awful happening to young people that is pushing them toward violent extremes. It will not be addressed through partisan bickering that takes tragedies and reduces them to moments for partisan point-scoring. Imagine having to wonder whether people will care about your loved ones, about what they will say and how they will react, based on the ideological profile of the attacker.

I respect @ezraklein a lot, but this is dead wrong and frankly a baffling thing to say. Charlie Kirk was the *epitome* of our modern brand of poisonous politics. Ezra tries to make the point that he went around to college campuses to debate people. And that's true, for a very tortured version of the word 'debate'. But Charlie Kirk was not trying to build bridges. He was not trying to reach a common understanding with his opponents in the way that Ezra himself does. He was not operating in good faith, and his goal was not respectful two-way conversations where both sides can grow and change. Kirk's goal at his college 'debates' was not to find experts on tricky issues of culture and policy and then have a Socratic dialogues and learn from them. His goal was to find a purple haired nineteen year-old sociology major with more feelings than sense, and then dunk on them. He wanted to farm clips he could use on social media to make his opponents look ridiculous, and he was good at it. When I think about how social media has changed politics for the worse, Charlie Kirk and his style of engagement is one of the main protagonists. We live in a heavily polarized era where the parties hate each other more than they have in decades and political violence is on the rise. And while it might be distasteful to say it directly after he was murdered, Kirk was one of the people driving that hatred and that polarization. He taught his audiences to hate and fear their opponents. He egged on the public's worst and basest instincts. He flirted heavily and repeatedly with the idea of political violence. It should obviously be said that none of that justifies killing him. Anyone who advocates for political violence is no friend or ally of mine. But for a man who wrote a book called "Why We're Polarized" to look at Charlie Kirk and say that he practiced politics the right way is delusional.

RT @mehdirhasan: So much disinformation on this site tonight in the wake of the horrific Kirk murder, with conservatives cynically suggesti…

Dear MAGA, He didn’t just lie to you about Epstein. He lies to you about everything. Thank you for your attention to this matter!

*Yawn*