I've been bearish on L1 / L2 tokens for a long time.
But the only one I could see potentially justifying the valuation and coming back from here is
$SOL.
Figured, I'd share my POV given I have the unique vantage point of someone who spent ~5 years as part of the
@solana team and now manages a liquid fund that holds no
$SOL atm.
My best guess at what the triggers for the
@solana /
$SOL comeback story are laid out below. No guarantees the triggers happen, but if they do, I think
$SOL could [for a third time] run it back turbo.
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1/ Solana facilitates many of the apps and tokens with strong price action in 2026.
---
@Collector_Crypt and
$CARDS is already one and I suspect the run will continue. Crazy business
--- I have a strong hunch for what the next breakout will be, but not going to say more atm. Let's just say, the memecoin casino brought the retail energy back to Solana in 2023/2024. I think we will see history rhyme and that casinos of various flavors could bring retail back to Solana
2/ Solana continues to take share from CEXs as the best place for spot trading
--- What's been happening with
@sunrisedefi and stuff like:
x.com/vibhu/status/206292475โฆ is underrated atm
--- Solana is increasingly a great spot venue for tokens of all kinds and if the network can continue growing RWA volumes as well, even better
---
@MetaDAOProject and ownership coins are also a very interesting spot asset ecosystem (of seed stage startups)
3/ One or more perps platform on Solana also gain relevance
--- Whether it's
@PhoenixTrade or some other platform I am not sure, but some platform has to make Solana relevant in the most important line of business in crypto
--- I think this is the most uncertain of my triggers
4/ 1 2 3 above also translate into increases in network fees / REV
--- it's not good enough for Solana to be home for financial activity. The network also needs to prove it can monetize that activity.
I am highly confident in 1 and 2 happening. Medium confidence in 4. Least confidence in 3
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If we see the above happening, I think the narrative will turn. Solana will be once again be seen as the L1 with a credible shot at the biggest vision of "house of finance" because it is also making progress in payments and various institutional efforts.
Historic day for
@solana:
For the first time ever, HYPE did more spot volume on Solana than all centralized exchanges in the last 24 hours.
This is truly insane, IMO. For an asset that didn't exist on Solana until just a few months ago.
ZEC also did more volume than all CEXes (other than the binance ZEC/USDT market).
BTC also posted almost $200m in 24h volume.
My guess: Solana is going to eat global spot trading marketshare in everything.
First from CEXes for all crypto assets. Then from trad spot exchanges for equities.
Lower fees, self custody assets, fully open & transparent markets that anyone can participate in, and a huge amount of distribution through hundreds of front-ends
This is a winning product formula.