$xom please do not buy $wds …. Too much too soon

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17 years. Howard Marks @HowardMarksBook calls it the longest uninterrupted credit bull run he can recall. It started at the March 2009 low. The pandemic interrupted it briefly - "easily solved" in credit terms - and then it resumed. What 17 years of credit generosity looks like in practice: theory recedes, skepticism declines, due diligence declines, FOMO takes over. Lenders compete by cutting prices because if they don't make the loan, the competitor does and they're shut out. That ratchets down standards one quarter at a time - invisible in any single period, obvious late in the cycle. Marks via @Barrons also sees no reason to cut rates. Higher-for-longer hits every leveraged position originated expecting cuts. Historically generous conditions. Not stress-tested yet. Full read: podcastalpha.substack.com/p/… Source: At Barron's - youtube.com/watch?v=ZPpcUUe9…

Truth

I’ll give Justin a pass here. Rethinking priorities for V is bipartisan #usmnt

Nothing to see here, right?

Elon Musk in this 2012 interview: " My proceeds from PayPal after tax were about $180M, $100M of that went into SpaceX, $70M into Tesla, and $10M into SolarCity and I literally had to borrow money for rent." $SPCX $TSLA

Miss this

🚨Friday Night #EFT RollCall🚨 Strait of Hormuz closed forever Ceasefire pending, total war Drone strikes Deal is done Back to war You better count yo money!

Antonio Gracias on @SpaceX IPO: he's not selling. "It's one of the most consequential companies in human history." "Think of it as owning the British East India Company as you colonize the solar system and beyond." "We have 20,000 people here. They are some of the best engineers in the world. We're building the entire stack from energy to compute to launch to orbital compute." "It's really building the future." "I plan on personally holding my stake as long as I can." His firm, Valor Equity Partners, holds 7% of SpaceX, the second-largest stake behind Elon Musk himself. With SPCX currently at $174, that's ~$160 billion.

Epic! Amazing 😂😂😂

If The Big Short was made in 2026

Don’t go too far down Bourbon street. It gets different…

I've got my eye on a 100-year-old federally chartered savings bank It's based in New Orleans and it converted from mutual to stock ownership 22 months ago, raised $54.6 million in its IPO and sits on a Tier 1 leverage ratio of 21.41% (more than four times the well-capitalized minimum) and trades at a ~30% discount to its tangible book value This is a rare setup The board has authorized the repurchase of 10% of outstanding stock and is executing at a pace that retires nearly 7.4% of shares per year, every dollar of which is bought below liquidation value and immediately accretive to remaining holders. Four of the most active community bank specialist investors in the country are already on the cap table: FJ Capital Management, Mangrove Partners, Fourthstone, and Stilwell Value. Just wrote this one up in my newsletter.

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20,000 Bbl/d Yemen Wells: "Here's a quick funny story on Yemen as an example. We were drilling vertical wells. Think about today's technology — having to drill 4,000 or 5,000 meter laterals just to get 1,000 barrels a day out of a well." "In Yemen, if we didn't get 15 to 20,000 barrels a day of light oil production out of a vertical well, we saw that as a miss. When we hit 20,000 barrels a day in a new well, it was steak dinner night in the field." "It just gives you perspective on the scale. We had a 250,000 barrel a day operation going there, and at the time our project alone was 40% of the country's GDP." •Outwest Energy CEO Mike Backus