building blocks @monad / ex-mev dev @SeliniCapital / just my opinions

Joined January 2022
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Pinned Tweet
How I almost took down Arbitrum - and how it radicalized me 🧵
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flashboy retweeted
Ray Dalio logs on once a quarter to remind you he’s still sidelined and btw China might win
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The only edge in markets that never gets arbitraged away — from a crypto quant running Sharpe ~4: Leigh Drogen (@LDrogen), CIO of Starkiller Capital. Sharpe ~4. Started his career as a quant at a NY equity hedge fund. Drogen: "If the only thing you ever did was put a 50-day moving average on Bitcoin — long when above, out when below — you would massively outperform everything." "You would stay out of the massive puke-inducing crashes." "If you knew nothing — couldn't tell Ethereum from the Nth lending protocol — and just bought the top 20th percentile by 30-day return and shorted the bottom 20th, you'd make a whole bunch of money." "What is the intrinsic value of Dogecoin? Nothing. You could make the case Bitcoin has no intrinsic value either." "The vast majority of assets in digital asset space have no intrinsic value — which is why cross-sectional momentum works so well." "Momentum is the only persistent alpha in all markets. All other alpha gets arbitraged away. Human behavior never will."
A 4-Sharpe crypto fund. 27 of 28 months positive. Leigh Drogen (@LDrogen) is CIO of Starkiller Capital, a crypto quant fund running momentum and market-neutral crypto strategies. His edge is diligence — and a "never lose more than 1%" position rule. We cover: - Why block space is worthless — and the fiber-optics-in-1999 analogy that explains every L1 collapse since blobs launched on Ethereum - Starkiller's "never lose more than 1%" position sizing rule (how it compounds into 27 of 28 positive months) - The Ripple / RLUSD / USCC trade — borrowing at 2.5% against a 5-8% yielding tokenized basis fund, hidden in plain sight on Aave Horizon - How Starkiller dodged the Kelp DAO hack, lending USDC at 17-18% APR while the rest of DeFi was on fire - Why momentum is the only actual persistent alpha (it's the only persistent behavioral characteristic of humans) - "F*ckery risk" on the short book — why Drogen runs a more diversified short book than long book, even when his thesis screams short - Why "sales is way overcompensated" relative to the difficulty of the job — and what that means for ambitious young quants - The 2019 DM from a 21-year-old that became Drogen's biggest career miss — and how Polymarket's Shane Coplin (@shayne_coplan) actually solved the SEC problem ("USDC and VPNs") Highlights: 00:00 Intro 01:09 Mechanics of a 4 Sharpe market neutral DeFi strategy 03:24 Quantifying protocol risk and code provenance 06:40 Case study: Exploiting incentivized spreads in carry trades 10:53 Three primary sources of alpha in liquid crypto markets 14:28 Capacity constraints and institutional yield compression 18:54 Position sizing via the 1% max loss rule 21:38 Pro-cyclical returns and the risk modulation framework 26:44 Compounding capital through trend following and cross-sectional momentum 33:35 Why momentum is the only persistent behavioral alpha 48:39 Extracting alpha from token unlock schedules and market structure 51:20 Lessons from building Estimize and the SEC/ForceRank fight 55:00 The Polymarket origin story: Arbitraging regulatory hurdles 01:01:45 Career risk premia and the value of "eating sh*t" 01:05:34 Table selection: Positioning your career on the right macro curve
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only the average prediction market user is stupid enough to believe this
Kalshi is the only financial market where Main St. has an edge over Wall St. Gigi, Nicholas, Brandon, Joel, Heather, Paul, and Stephanie have all found their edge and mastered their own niche on Kalshi. Prediction markets are the people’s markets.
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flashboy retweeted
it's been 14 months since hyperevm launched it has less capacity than ethereum mainnet now slower, more expensive, worse tooling, zombie ecosystem filled with mercenary teams mass farming airdrops, risks of getting your app steamrolled by hyperliquid's team it is what it is
May 11
started speaking to a lot of builders on hyperliquid there's some v talented and smart ppl launching interesting things. reaffirms my thesis that hyperliquid will indeed be the blockchain to house all finance i will say though the focus is heavily concentrated toward trading and HIP-3/HIP-4. i think there's a lot of potential for ppl to build with hyperEVM as the central focus (treating it as an L1), not just the trading systems already present been enjoying it though, been good to get to know some of the teams doing cool stuff
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Too many crypto products reference the name of the blockchain they're built on in the product name Name one successful web2 company that put AWS in their name
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why: I am so tired of worrying about & spending lots of time fixing memory leaks and crashes and stability issues. it would be so nice if the language provided more powerful tools for preventing these things.
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HyperEVM is just a honeypot for builders If your idea is actually good, the HL team will simply take it and put it in HyperCore - and you out of business
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The problem with Solana is it thinks it has already won
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The new Turing Test: If you can’t tell the UI was built by AI, we’ve hit AGI
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Hedge funds charge 20% to manage your positions These guys charge 50% for positions you manage yourself
We've heard today's feedback on Kumbaya's LP fee mechanics. Updated documentation along with more details on Kumbaya's fee structure is coming tomorrow.
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only @monad could turn an account suspension into a timeline takeover
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This is the best argument I’ve seen for raising yields in DeFi There should be 0 circumstance where lending on Aave pays less than T-Bills
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Encrypting transactions is the zero-to-one moment for killing toxic MEV
Apr 18
An encrypted mempool is a holy grail of blockchain design @category_xyz released BTX, the first practical Batched Threshold Encryption scheme that suits the needs for encrypted mempools A working encrypted mempool would keep transactions hidden until finalized, reducing MEV
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Apr 13
jane street has an alert that triggers when they make too much money lol
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market orders without a limit price should be illegal
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It's extremely weird that Venmo has a social media-like feed I don't want to see other people's payments, and I don't want people to see mine - even if we're friends
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WTI’s success on Hyperliquid is a win for all of crypto
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flashboy retweeted
what's the point of polymarket now that it's not even good at what it was sold as crazy how altcoin-perps was a better solution in every way possible
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The dumbest person you know is being told 'you are absolutely right' by some LLM right now.
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flashboy retweeted
first date idea: we establish a tcp connection
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