My @CarnegieEndow report on China’s nuclear policy is out today after extensive work: “Political Drivers of China’s Changing Nuclear Policy: Implications for U.S.-China Nuclear Relations and International Security” A brief thread: carnegieendowment.org/resear…

The rulers of America, China and Russia despise Europe’s consensual ways. They favour winner-takes-all-politics & power wielded for the “good”, diligent majority. But maybe, as global turmoil & AI scramble who’s a winner and loser, consensus has its uses economist.com/international/…

My post mortem on the Trump-Xi summit: The TL:DR version is that the "deal" struck in Beijing wasn't Boeings, soybeans, and chips. It was about definitively moving to a "principal-to-principal" model on US-China for the next three years. That model, long advocated by some, has upsides and risks. The main thing is that the effectiveness of that model now depends on the respective political strength of each leader. That means for Xi, a politically strong Trump is preferable to ensure US-China stability. That could also determine outcomes that are currently not priced in (eg Iran). @CarnegieChina carnegieendowment.org/emissa…

During the Trump-Xi summit, the Chinese President "became vocal and agitated when discussing Japan, surprising US officials because the subject had not featured in talks with their Chinese counterparts before the summit." In response, President Trump said Tokyo had to take a more assertive security stance because of the rising threat from North Korea. It was unclear if Trump mentioned China — the biggest Japanese security concern — in the same context. ft.com/content/70e922b3-c423…

Informative & insightful review by the brilliant @zhaot2005 of 3 new books about China's nuclear program/ ambitions. great stuff from @chinabksreview chinabooksreview.com/2026/05…

Very, very pleased with this formidable essay by @zhaot2005 on the secrets of China’s nuclear past… and present. Transparency could prevent a new arms race; but a Chinese nuclear scientist’s autobiographical novel shows just how difficult that might be. chinabooksreview.com/2026/05…

China has likely almost tripled its stockpile of nuclear warheads since 2019. It’s not slowing down. And the U.S. is taking notice. Are the two countries on a road to nuclear disaster? @zhaot2005 unpacks, for @ForeignAffairs: foreignaffairs.com/united-st…

“The Chinese government believes that, rather than generating risk, a stronger nuclear deterrent will actually stabilize relations with the United States by forcing American officials to treat Beijing as a peer and avoid challenging its core interests,” writes @zhaot2005. fam.ag/4w56alK

Happy to share my latest in @ForeignAffairs. As China reshapes the global nuclear order, can the U.S. and China forge a new framework to rein in competition and break the spiral? foreignaffairs.com/united-st…

Having been in “stealth mode” for a little while, this week I can finally say that @CarnegieChina is officially open for business. It was wonderful to see familiar faces and meet new friends. We couldn’t have asked for a warmer reception in Singapore. Great appreciation for our distinguished guests who traveled from Beijing, Delhi, Jakarta, and DC to celebrate with us. What a fantastic line-up of speakers that covered the waterfront from tech and geopolitics to Asian agency and whether we’re moving to a “multilateral world with strong bipolar features.” It was a privilege to be alongside @CarnegieEndow leadership Tino Cuéllar @EvanFeigenbaum and Daniel Baer for this special occasion. I remarked at the outset that grappling with China’s arrival as a great power is a team sport – having a community of scholars, industry practitioners, thought leaders, and policymakers and diplomats is essential. We intend to continue to build and strengthen it. As the first and only American think tank with a physical presence in Singapore, I’m excited about what lies ahead. This may be a new chapter for Carnegie China, but it is only the first chapter.

It was a privilege to join @damienics, @VGokhale59, @dinopattidjalal, Bilahari Kausikan, @mawangcun1, and an amazing cast of colleagues and friends from Singapore, Washington, New Delhi, Jakarta, Beijing, and beyond to formally launch @CarnegieChina in Singapore. The East Asia-based research center of @CarnegieEndow, focused on China’s regional and global role, the Center will cast a critical eye on China's strategic and economic trajectory from our new base in Singapore. This was a happy arrival event to welcome our center to the Lion City.

For decades, China had a minimal nuclear force. Under Xi Jinping, it’s been surging warhead numbers and building one of the world’s most advanced missile arsenals. But why? What are these weapons for? What is Xi preparing for? youtu.be/Rcoa29k-oNc?is=kyub… 1/2

Had a good discussion on conventional counterforce and implications for strategic stability, with Keir Lieber, Dan Plesch, and Manuel Galileo: youtube.com/watch?v=Gh6sk8UZ…

Great opportunity for undergrad and grad students who are eligible to work in Singapore: @CarnegieChina's #YoungAmbassadors program is now recruiting new paid interns, to work at its new office in Singapore! Details at: carnegieendowment.applicantp…

It's always an awkward conversation when your friend tells you they want a nuclear weapon... @toby_dalton breaks down the ongoing discourse on "friendly" nuclear proliferation for @TWQgw. Check it out here: tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.…

Join us as we examine how Advances in precision-strike technology, ISR capabilities, and missile defense integration are reshaping deterrence, escalation dynamics, and arms control, with an incredible panel of experts. REGISTER TODAY! events.teams.microsoft.com/e…