RECAP:
-The U.S. military conducted strikes inside Iran on Monday, which CENTCOM framed as "self-defense." American forces sank two IRGC ships attempting to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran responded by launching surface-to-air missiles at U.S. planes, prompting American strikes on missile launchers near Bandar Abbas. CENTCOM says it's "using restraint during the ongoing ceasefire."
-Despite the strikes, Rubio said from India that a deal is still possible within days. The holdup is now down to "specific language in the initial document" on the nuclear program and sanctions.
-Trump posted his "Nuclear Dust" statement, laying out how Iran's enriched uranium gets destroyed. Either turned over to the U.S. and brought home, or preferably destroyed in place in coordination with Iran, with the IAEA witnessing. The existing stockpile gets handled. Future enrichment still gets pushed to phase two.
-The deal split the Republican Party. Ted Cruz called it a "disastrous mistake." Roger Wicker warned Operation Epic Fury "would be for naught." Pompeo said "not remotely America First." Graham and Bolton piled on. Trump's response was to think bigger, demanding Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, and Jordan join the Abraham Accords as part of the package. Graham flipped overnight and called it "simply brilliant." The Gulf states almost certainly won't sign. Saudi still wants a pathway to a Palestinian state first.
-Brent crude fell more than 5% to around $95 on deal optimism, still 30% above pre-war levels. Roughly 1,500 ships remain stranded in the Gulf.
RECAP:
Israel launched Operation Arrows of Fire tonight. 70 Hezbollah sites struck across Lebanon. Beirut's southern suburbs evacuating. Schools in northern Israel closed tomorrow. Netanyahu ordered the military to step on the gas. And they did.
Simultaneously, explosions hit Bandar Abbas, Iran's primary naval base and the command hub for the Strait of Hormuz. Similar sounds reported at Sirik and Jask. A US Air Force tanker is currently orbiting over the Gulf of Oman. Unconfirmed reports of a clash between IRGC and US Navy vessels in the Strait.
Iran warned Washington that Israeli strikes on Beirut could kill the nuclear deal. Washington is coordinating the Lebanon operation with Israel. Both things are true at the same time.
Iran's top negotiators landed in Qatar anyway. Trump said today: "The deal will either be great and meaningful, or there will be no deal."
Meanwhile Hamas told everyone what they already suspected. Gaza is not part of any agreement, Tehran never told them otherwise, and if Lebanon goes quiet they know exactly what happens to them next.
Lebanon's death toll hit 3,185 since March 2. The Strait is still at 5% capacity. JD Vance is being sidelined. Rubio is winning the Iran argument inside the White House.
On a different note, Russia's Lavrov called Rubio to warn him that Russia is planning systematic strikes on Kyiv and the US should evacuate its embassy.
Pope Leo formally apologized for the Church's role in the slave trade and warned about AI in a 42,300-word encyclical. The Vatican is now partnering with Anthropic.
Some nights are harder to keep up with than others. This was one of them.