Not an Oil Expert
Joined March 2010
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8 Oct 2025
Please watch and share this video I made 15 years ago if you can. If you disagree, let’s talk about it.
youtu.be/9hyz4Hnb64o?si=dR47…
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Sold a little of my FANG calls and bought short term USO and BNO call spreads expiring mid July today. 5-10x potential on the spreads if price rallies over the next 5-6 weeks. If not, I’ll reevaluate and do a similar play for the next month. Due to a lot of upside potential on the spreads, I’m able to ration it out to smaller monthly bets. I’m roughly 20% AMD, 60% cash, 15-20% oil related. I’ll likely invest a lot of my cash soon in safer, long term positions and only attempt to outperform the market with a set amount of the rest.
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Climb That Ladder retweeted
Even better, the IBIT $100 call for June 2027 is only $0.50. Bitcoin $300k is around IBIT $170 so that’s a 140x and if we hit 300k before then it would be worth even more.
To be clear for anyone reading this, I think this is a stupid idea. I’m just calling the bluff of anyone claiming they truly believe we will be $300k in a year.
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If you truly believe bitcoin will be $300k in a year, you can almost 100x with the $500-600 call spread for MSTR June 2027. In other words, those options are pricing the odds of $300k bitcoin (or even less) being around 1%.
We will be looking back at this in a year in disbelief as Bitcoin crosses 300k
Mark my words.
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Climb That Ladder retweeted
Jun 11
The year is 2028.
Trump just announced that the deal with Iran is about to be signed this weekend.
Iran says it is reviewing the final text.
The U.S. says discussions are constructive.
Pakistan says a breakthrough is imminent.
Qatar says it is honored to have played a constructive role in facilitating the talks. Qatar did not facilitate the talks.
Israel says it learned about the deal from Truth Social.
Hezbollah in southern Lebanon is still getting bombed daily.
Axios reports a rift between Netanyahu and Trump. The White House denies it. Trump then posts a photo of himself and Netanyahu. Netanyahu is not in the photo.
Oil jumps 3%.
Then falls 4%.
Trump says the deal is being signed at the request of Pakistan and Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir, who Trump describes as “one of the great generals, maybe the greatest, people are saying.”
A senior official says we’re “closer than ever.”
A different senior official says “significant gaps remain.”
They work in the same office.
The next round of talks is scheduled for next weekend.
It will also be described as a breakthrough.
Qatar thanks Pakistan for its important role and takes credit for the progress.
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😂
Jun 11
A senior Israeli official responding to Trump's Iran post tells Channel 12: “We are not aware of any agreement being reached.”
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Climb That Ladder retweeted
Jun 10
It's pretty ironic that we're going to empty the reserve that we created because of what happened in Iran because of what's happening in Iran
The U.S. SPR last went below 300 million barrels in January 1983 during initial fill-up. It crossed above ~301 million in early February 1983 and stayed higher for over 43 years. Recent drawdowns put it at ~349 million barrels as of early June 2026—the lowest in decades.
No official reports tie structural integrity of the salt caverns specifically to a 300 million barrel threshold. Salt creep causes gradual deformation and well stress as oil is withdrawn, with risks to capacity and operations rising at very low levels (some analyses flag concerns below ~150 million). DOE monitors this, but aggressive/repeated drawdowns increase long-term maintenance needs regardless of the exact number.
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Climb That Ladder retweeted
I was listening to this last night. It was not recorded though.
The most interesting thing was when I heard Grain of Salt assure the listeners about Strategies' capital raising abilities. He told everyone that he met Strategy CEO Phong Le in person, and was told by Phong that they could raise a years worth of capital to pay $STRC dividends in a week.
The complacency about raising capital reminded me of the case study of Valeant Pharmaceuticals.
Valeant became a Wall Street darling by borrowing money, buying drug companies, cutting costs, and repeating the process. Their CEO famously said, "R&D is a sucker's game," and investors came to view Valeant's ability to raise capital and do acquisitions as a competitive advantage. Critics like Charlie Munger and Jim Chanos kept asking a simple question: What happens if the market stops funding the machine?
The pushback to these critics was basically "You don't understand the model."
Valeant bulls argued that critics were applying old-school metrics to a new kind of pharmaceutical company.
Strikingly similar to the debate today about $MSTR
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66.2 million oil barrels have been drained from the US SPR since the start of the Iran war. Yes, that’s 16% of the prewar holdings, but as about 250 million is the operational low, we’ve actually drained about 40% of our usable SPR buffer.
Jun 10
Strategic Petroleum Reserve down 7.9mm barrels in latest week to 349 million, lowest since August 2023.
66.2 million SPR barrels have been drained since the start of the war, or 16% of the pre-war total
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Agreed. That’s why I picked $FANG to be my largest upside position with $150 strike calls for Jan 2027. The stock was $170 and rising before the crisis, when oil was $60ish . Q1 profit was great with average crude sold at $73. Q2 will be $85 or higher I’d guess.
Jun 10
Starting to sound more and more like any return to 'normal' will take a while. Oil bears need to remember that energy companies don't need $200 oil to make good money. Quality companies can do quite nicely to these prices and these prices appear to be here to stay for a while....
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Fang hasn’t gone up much since pre crisis levels. Nothing is a guarantee, but for now at least I’m glad to have exposure to the upside here.
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RT @HFI_Research: API reported ~17 million bbl draw for crude.
EIA will be close to that figure. It would be either the 3rd, 4th, or 5th…
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Crazy. I can’t wait to start making my own charts of this stuff.
API storage update (all numbers in barrels)
Crude -9.119 million barrels (analysts expected -3.4mil, again being wrong; they're refusing to increase draw expectations!)
Gasoline -1.191mil
Distillates 1.3mil
Cushing -1.125mil
SPR actual -7.9mil
Total crude draw: -17.019mil!
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Actually, the futures curve that’s in backwardation has flattened. Here’s Dec 2026 futures over time (YYD). Later months bullish, front months bearish is more about equilibrium than overall bearishness imo.
Jun 9
US Oil has broken the wedge to the downside (again) and is now entering the capitulation zone where suddenly people realize it's heading to $50 instead of $200.
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Climb That Ladder retweeted
Jun 9
Narrative: Strait of Hormuz transits are up
Reality: Strait transits are at very low levels
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I’m normally not a fan of stop losses, but in October when I announced my sale of all MetaPlanet shares when it was around 515 yen, I had to because given taxes and other personal things I went in preservation mode. I would have held some shares longer if I didn’t also believe the mNAV arb thesis was completely broken and almost entirely a thing of the past.
Bitcoin unable to even double its previous cycle high (which was a non-parabolic high essentially hit twice months apart) without even adjusting for inflation was embarrassing. That’s with the Bitcoin ETFs and Saylor.
Last year Saylor said there would be no more winters. Early this year I think right after the first dump to $60k, Saylor said winter was behind us. Recently Bitcoin hit new lows and I don’t personally believe this will be a double bottom.
I’m bearish MSTR partly because of being bearish Bitcoin and partly due to being bearish mNAV. I expect the bear market mNAV to be 10-25% lower than it is currently, and worse if there’s legit panic. Time will tell and no one has a perfect batting average with this stuff.
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So many people said I sold the Metaplanet bottom and nothing I said could convince people otherwise. I’d just made a huge prediction mistake which makes sense that some people would not understand why I felt the need to flip, but I couldn’t stay married to a thesis which failed (by my own personal criteria). Now the stock is down about 60% from where it was when I flipped. All any of us can do is preserve capital and learn from mistakes.
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“Historic buying opportunity”, or this is a 16 year bull trend that’s been knocking on the lower trend door a lot over the past few years and not hitting the top even once in about 9 years.
BITCOIN HAS FALLEN BELOW "FIRE SALE!" TERRITORY 👀
A HISTORIC BUYING OPPORTUNITY! ✊
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Same.
Jun 9
I’ve only bear posted like this a few times before. Last one was April 2022 (definitely late but not at the lows)
Wouldn’t do it now if I weren’t convinced things with Strategy were as fragile as they are
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Climb That Ladder retweeted
Jun 9
There's still time to sell your $MSTR above $100
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