Market Structure Insight — MVRV | Hash Rate | Puell Multiple
Based on the current readings across the three indicators, we can build a broader view of the phase the market is moving through — especially when linking holder profitability, miner revenues, and network strength together:
1️⃣ MVRV
The MVRV ratio continues to approach levels that historically reflect significantly reduced unrealized profits among Bitcoin holders. A large portion of the gains that existed near the highs has already been absorbed during the recent drawdown.
Reaching these zones typically signals that the market has flushed out a meaningful share of accumulated greed, with portfolios gradually rotating back toward cost-basis levels.
However, it’s important to clarify:
Entering these ranges does not necessarily mark the final bottom. More often, it reflects:
• Advanced stages of correction
• Extended re-accumulation ranges
• A bottoming process built over time — not a single sharp reversal
2️⃣ Hash Rate
From a network perspective, the Hash Rate remains relatively elevated despite the price decline. This reflects strong underlying infrastructure and indicates that large mining operations have not capitulated yet.
But when Hash Rate is viewed alongside miner profitability, clear pressure begins to emerge:
• Lower BTC price
• Stable or rising operating costs
• Compressed mining margins
This environment creates what’s known as Miner Stress.
If price pressure persists, this phase can evolve into Miner Capitulation — where weaker miners are forced to shut down and liquidate reserves to cover operational expenses, adding additional supply to the market in the short term.
3️⃣ Puell Multiple
The Puell Multiple, which measures daily miner revenue relative to its yearly average, is currently hovering near historical contraction zones.
This indicates:
• Depressed mining revenues
• Profitability under pressure
• Miners earning below their annual norm
Historically, when the indicator enters these levels, miners begin selling newly mined BTC — and sometimes treasury holdings — to sustain operations, increasing short-term sell pressure.
At the same time, these zones have frequently aligned with:
• Late bear market stages
• Long-term value areas
Connecting the Three Indicators
When combining the full picture:
• MVRV → Holder profits largely eroded
• Puell Multiple → Miner revenues compressed
• Hash Rate → Still strong, but under rising stress
This structure reflects a market undergoing financial cleansing — where easy profits are removed, producers are pressured, and supply redistributes into stronger hands.
Not an instant bottom…
But a gradual base-building environment.
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Conclusion:
• The market is in a clear profitability compression phase.
• Holder gains have declined toward historically bottom-range levels.
• Miner revenues are contracting significantly.
• Miner Capitulation risk is emerging but hasn’t peaked yet.
• Hash Rate remains strong — signaling no mass surrender so far.
We are most likely in the second half of the bear market,
approaching long-term value zones…
But it’s still premature to confirm the end of the Bear Market.
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