Both are partially right.
1) OI is low because you have to have physical market makers (who can make/take delivery) and financial market markers (spreads and volume). We have this in precious but itās still just a handful. It drops off significantly end of month from both our expiry window, as well as Comex expiry windows where a lot of traders are arbing and trading against. In VCMCarbon we also have physical makers/takers (unlike a major competitor who literally wrote a contract spec where there was no available āphysicalā to their spec, nobody to make/take registry transfer). LNG and Lithium is close. When, not if on building OI and deliveries.
2) But volume does matter. Bank FCMs donāt even start onboarding until they can seen the liquidity and tight spreads needed for institutional flows. Thats about 20k per day from what we learned at Boca (which is when many flipped the green light end of March to submit clearing applications and/or find carry broker connections). And arb revenue against other markets, even if it slows end of month, is still rev.
3) Finacial futures startups (MiaEx ext) arenāt relevant here from a V/OI perspective due to #1. And weāre the first full stack physical clearinghouse perhaps ever (new contracts, new clearinghouse FCMs/ISVs connect, new tech, all from scratch, takes time). And physical commodities liquidity is winner take all (see #1 again), financial futures and equities are replicable and all compete (even though best liquidity pools still take most). We arenāt listing copies of WTI to take market share, weāre ramping up our own products with no competition (other than carbon).
4) So the billion dollar question where these threads all startedā¦.What should be forward priced into the stock based on the risk/reward of above, runway/dilution, and where V/OI is at?
Should you go long or short on early volume/low OI versus market cap?
If you think we donāt have the clearing members and physical market makers onboarding and we donāt know what weāre doing, and we wonāt through the low budget runway weāre operating on ($_30mm annual āburnā to wait on this āoptionā is literally nothing on our market cap & the backers we have, ~2% dilution per year). Remember, we already sunk all captial for a 1mm ADV exchange, dilution behind us, pre-built. And now look at how Iāve managed dilution for 6years WITHOUT revenue and ramp up, on-boarding momentum; you think now is where Iām going to dilute uncontrollably and lower the probability of a 1mm ADV NAV that I still own 10% of? If we hit it anytime in the next 7 years youāre going to make [many] multiples on your shares here (Lol, or the moron-take that Iām just going to pump & dump my future 4/5-figure stock into an indexā¦Claire, ms. 4%. zero-DD).
(This is all the conservative take btw, competing on the incumbents web1 playing field, weāll still go up multiples from hereā¦but they canāt even play on the MarketOS Web3.5 playing field we are building, in that we are 1 of 1 and will be coming to take existing markets and liquidity as well).
Alright cool, so now letās get back to addressing the morons shorting an illiquid call option now, with a month plus to cover liquidity, on shares that canāt be pried out of the cold dead hands of me, [major family offices and institutions] and people that have held for 4-5yrs because they understand the simple math weāve set up. I guess some people donāt know how to do forward probabilities and share counts, canāt see the flood of institutions now wanting limited stockāfor them they can go ahead and short the coin toss in a heavily skewed coin and cry FRAUD (lol, we literally have NYMEX people that have been building markets for 5 decades, Goldman partners that helped build Brent, ICE, former head of CME metals and energy, former head of product launching clearport, head of DME / Omani crude, co-head Goldman Asiaā¦and andā¦all in on a pump and dump and not here to build markets hahahaha)