Co-founder and Principal @Pendulumgroupca Geopolitical Advisory. Also @MLInstitute @CNAPS_ @CU_NPSIA @superforecaster. Banned by 🇷🇺

Joined October 2009
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War brings clarity, not only regarding friend-enemy distinction but also for others as it reveals our moral circles, their extend, direction, and who is in & out. That determines the price we are willing to pay and the risks we are willing to take. Human, all too human.
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#DoubleTrouble @MLInstitute is back. In this episode I talked with @AaronGBurnett @DSI_Strategy on how to #MakeRussiaPay. ~$20 billion CAD of the aggressor #Russia’s money that #Canada can confiscate is sitting there. Why the Liberal government is not taking the lead in #G7?
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As I argued in a piece published in early 2021, #DoubleTrouble is here and they are at war with us, whether we want it or not. @MLInstitute
Replying to @nickschifrin
“We have frankly all collectively perhaps underestimated the magnitude of this emerging axis and the strategic impact it’s having… These growing webs of sanctions evasion, tech sharing, disinformation, collusion, coordination, potentially in the area of sabotage across that spectrum of hybrid warfare, there was more going on than we were attuned to.” “Putin is in the process of regaining the momentum in [Ukraine], thanks in part to the infusion of North Korean troops.” “We won’t take the disruptive deterring types of measures that we need to pick apart this axis as we need to, until we shift our mindsets… and become more assertive… If we don’t face up to the reality that Putin is only still in the war in Ukraine today because of China’s economic and dual use support, we’re not going to fashion effective strategies for countering China’s strategic ambitions.” “I think driving wedges between them is pretty fanciful”
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The new episode of #DoubleTrouble is out! In this episode I talked with @EHunterChristie on why West's obsession with escalation management is the wrong framework to understand and deal with #Russia and what needs to replace it. @MLInstitute youtu.be/s_K0zS3-B54
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Balkan Devlen retweeted
11 Oct 2024
Sure, the bros using it can be annoying, but I actually think it’s good to use “prior” for “belief”. It implies that belief is inherently dynamic, & it adopts the language of Bayesianism, our best model of optimal belief change There’s some value to being reflexively open-minded
next person who says 'prior' when they just mean 'belief' is gonna get a kick to their 'posterior'
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It is #DoubleTrouble time again. In this episode, I talked with @MLInstitute Senior Fellow and National Security project lead Alex Dalziel about his recent paper exploring #Russia - #China geopolitics in the Eurasian #Arctic. @KAS_Canada @NAADSN_RDSNAA youtu.be/yw7qmkRR92w
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ICYMI: Check out the special episode of @MLInstitute’s #DoubleTrouble series in which @jbmllr, Colin Dueck, and yours truly discuss #Canada - #US relations and how to advance our common interests around the world. Many thanks to @KAS_Canada for their support and @AEI @AEIfdp for allowing to republish the video from our May 8th event in Washington, D.C. @CNAPS_ youtu.be/cMGUtSD-efs

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