Since i am building
@bangodotfun and keep getting a lot of question's about prediction market,
so i thought to create a series of thread about prediction market's covering technical aspects, history, earning startegies, future potential and painpoints
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What is Prediction Market?
A Prediction market is platform where you can trade outcomes of future event based on your belief and get rewarded for being right,
it is also called as infromation market coz price of each outcome, after all the buy and sells represent's probability of event happening in future, which becomes a great real-time metric to measure crowd sentiment,
a user place bet on his belief for profit and unknowling becomes a part of collective intelligence.
The whole idea of using prediction market for decision making comes from the concept of "wisdom of crowd",
which states "group of invidivuals are more accurate than Expert individual "
So how exactly you can make profit from Prediction markets?
Simply by information edge, if you know something for sure will happen in future and it have a market on
@Polymarket, then you can check the odds and buy share of that specific outcome with USDC, generally you will make 2x if odds is 50%-50%, or if odds are less (>50%) then profit ratio will increase (<2x)
and after placing bet you changed your mind about outcome then you can still sell your share and buy another outcome, once the bet is resolved then you can claim your profit.
for example:
question :"Will Bitcoin close above $70k by December?”
market price : yes $0.50 (50%)
the crowd believes there’s a 63% chance and the amount you bet will be double if this predictions gets true