$IREN: What to Monitor in 2026
Revenue
No doubt
$IREN is rich in power, what
$IREN investors need to focus on is revenue. The demand is certainly there, it's about getting GPUs online. Even the rate at which
$IREN can sign contract is bottleneck by getting GPUs online because getting GPUs online derisk your ability to meet timelines to sign the next contract.
So what you see in
$CRWV is that at the beginning they were really fast and then started slowing down. At first, a Neocloud will 2x revenue every quarter but then the ramp are bounded by the physical world. The benefit of having alot of power is that you'll be able to keep growing at a high rate until you ran out of power or your colocation provider(s) hits their limits. However, that's not
$IREN's challenge.
$IREN needs to get it's ramp -> cashflow -> ramp feedback loop going. Getting slow GPUs slowed down the whole ramp as you are doing theory based preparation for your datacenter until you get the GPUs and then problems can be uncovered sequentially.
Benchmarks
2024 was
$CRWV's ramp year:
Q4 2023: 116m
Q1: 188.7m ( 62.7% QoQ)
Q2: 395.4m ( 109.5% QoQ)
Q3: 583.9m ( 47.7% QoQ)
Q4: 747m ( 27.9% QoQ)
Q1 2025: 981m ( 31.4% QoQ)
2025 was
$NBIS ramp year:
Q4 2024: 37.9m
Q1: 50.9m ( 34.3% QoQ)
Q2: 105.1m ( 106.5% QoQ)
Q3: 146.1m ( 39% QoQ)
Q4: 227.7m ( 55.9% QoQ)
Q1 2026: 399m ( 75.2% QoQ)
What Will Move the Stock
To look what will move Neocloud stocks, I admit that
$NBIS has done a fantastic job this year. What
$NBIS executed well objectively was:
1. Sign a 12B Meta Contract with 15B Extension Option
2. Back up their capability to fulfill the contract by hitting revenue numbers and critically showing acceleration in revenue growth. Observe how
$NBIS Q1 2026 earnings show an acceleration to 75.2% revenue growth.
I monitor the whole industry to figure out what's going on and for
$NBIS, I got to give credit where credit is due,
$NBIS put up the GPUs and in this market it doesn't matter if you pay colocation or whatever, getting the GPUs up and showing revenue growth is what the market wants to see from early stage Neoclouds.
IREN's Revenue
IREN's ramp was suppose to start in Q4 2025 but really it's Q1 2026 because we couldn't get GPUs delivered on time due to HBM shortgage which snowballed the whole ramp process back.
Using currently delivery guidance, here are my calculations for the next few quarters revenue:
Q1: 33.6m
Q2: 100.8m (200% QoQ)
Q3: 207.6m (106% QoQ)
Q4: 385.4m (85.6% QoQ)
Q1: 843.8m (118.9% QoQ)
Q2: 1454.7m (72.4% QoQ)
Q1 Calculations: Reported in Q1 earnings
Q2 Calculations: PG exited Q1 with 307m run rate (page 19 of 10Q in source 1 - also screenshotted 1st picture) from the financial digging that
@_Sgr_A_Star did and should be at 500m run rate by end of quarter. With linear ramp, (307 500/2)/4-qtr = 100m.
Q3 Calculations: 125m from PG and H1 Handoff stated by Dan to be in Q3 which I will take to be July. I'll take August Sept of 124m from H1 so 124m * 2/3 = 82.6m.
Q4 Calculations: 125m from PG; 124m from H1; assuming we get Mackenzie handed half way through the quarter = 432.8/4qtr/2-halfway = 54.1m; assuming we get 2/3 duration of H2 and 1/3 duration of H3 and H4 get's handed over at the very end of the quarter, we only count the 2/3 H2 1/3 H3 = 124m. Sum = 427.1m
Q1 2027 Calculations: 125m from PG, 485m from H1-4, 108.2m from Mackenzie, CF = 40.6m, half duration of Nvidia Childress site = 85m.
Q2 2027 Calculations: 125m from PG, 485m from H1-4, 108.2m from Mackenzie, 40.6m from CF, 170m from Nvidia Childress, 1/2 duration of Block 7-9 is 330.9m, SW1 50MW IT is 195m
Share Price
IREN's ramp started late but having the power supply abundantly clear, means that the ramp can sustain high % growth for longer because power is not the bottleneck.
If IREN can have report 385.4m quarterly revenue for Q4 2026 it will mirror NBIS 399m quarter where most of its revenue was either H100/H200s and bare metal to MSFT with colocation payments so margin are similar. With an SW1 contract in hand, it would match the Meta 12B with potential 15B extension contract NBIS has. In this case, market is giving NBIS an 55B valuation.
Let's give 5B for NBIS 25% Clickhouse stake at 20B next round valuation even though at 15B valuation now. The rest of NBIS's subsidiary the power they secured is rough equal to value of IREN's power portfolio (I know must IREN investors wouldn't make this trade off let's just call this even to make comparisons easy, you can do whatever adjustments you want). IREN Q4 2026 report will be which would be 50B (current NBIS market cap) / 22.89B (current IREN MCap) * 64.07 (current IREN stock price) = $139.95/share. Q4 earnings is early Feb 2027 but IREN also has higher sustain revenue growth rates due to it's power abundance but since Q4 earnings is Feb 2027, let's take 20% of for the time delta between EOY 2026 and earnings report for Q4 2026 to have a target of $111.96 share price for EOY 2026.
The really strong year for IREN will be 2027 as it sustains high growth rate and not be stuck in early ramp pains.
Sources
(1)
iren.gcs-web.com/static-file…