$200/month on Claude Code is the easiest ROI bet available to anyone making over $40k a year. If you can't max out those credits every month, that's not a spending problem. It's an imagination problem.

Vibe coding has gotten so easy I expected an explosion of new startups.Vibe coding has gotten so easy I expected an explosion of new startups. It didn't happen. A few vibe-coded apps here and there. That's about it. Turns out engineering was the excuse, not the obstacle. You also have to: * Care about a problem deeply enough to learn it * Put your reputation on the line by actually shipping * Support the product after it's live * Do the marketing * Build the list * Build the site All the unsexy stuff everyone assumed didn't matter. There are a thousand people I know who told me they'd start a business if they just had the engineering talent. Turns out engineering wasn't what was standing in their way. AI tore down the lowest barrier to entry. Now we can see who the real players are.

taxing unrealized capital gains would hurt him more than bill gates or Elon musk btw

Vibe Code is the new VC.

"Bitcoin is up because of ETF inflows" is like saying "Bitcoin is up because people bought it on Binance." ETFs, Binance, Robinhood, DEXs are venues, not reasons. Price discovery doesn't care where the buying happens. Macro, fear, greed, supply shocks. Those are reasons. The venue is just where the reason shows up.

This motherfucker ran a solid kingdom and I think some acknowledgement of that is overdue. Low crime, clean streets, quality monarch.

The Nadal Federer rivalry gave birth to the GOAT (Novak). I predict the Alcaraz Sinner rivalry will give birth to Novak 2.0. It could be Kouame, Fonseca, or Rafa Jodar.

"Thoughts?" is not a question. "It depends" is not an answer.

Vibe coding an app that you'll use every day, for years, is a massive competitive advantage. You'll keep building long after everyone else has quit. Indifference to traction is the moat. Before I moved my notes to @reflectnotes, I asked @maccaw how long they'd be around. He told me he had years of notes in there and would maintain it regardless, just for himself. I believed him. The future belongs to solo founders who'll keep shipping whether anyone notices or not. The ones with the conviction to push projects that look dead for years. Build for a theoretical market... and your customer count might be zero. But build for yourself and you'll always have at least one customer. Simply put: when you build for yourself, you're probably deploying new updates weekly. Do this for years on end and you might strike gold. Luck just favors infinite time horizons.

Vibe coding is reminding me how much I love software.

Never stop selling

Went surfing for the first time. NGL it was kind of life changing.

When my wife asks how we are going to afford our trip

David Friedberg: Is This Pesticide Causing a Colon Cancer Spike in Young People? Colon cancer rates in people aged 15-39 are up 80% over the last 20 years. A team from the University of Barcelona might have figured out why: Picloram exposure

Most leadership decisions are not complex. They're obvious. The bad hire is obvious. The wrong direction is obvious. The mistake is obvious. They're just emotionally hard. The leaders who win don't confuse "difficult" with "complex." They just do the obvious thing fast.

In my experience, everyone whose personal brand is "IDGAF" tends to be deeply insecure.

Florida is going to brain drain NYC (and wealth drain it too). Florida house voted 80-30 to abolish all property tax.

Never underestimate a psychopath on a warpath. Re: Sama and Codex on GPT 5.5

The most interesting standoff in Bitcoin right now: the four-year cycle camp vs. the structural camp. * The four-year cycle camp (e.g. @CryptoCon_ et al) expects a $35–45k bottom in Q4 2026 * The structural camp (@saylor, @BlackRock /Fink, @CryptoHayes-adjacent) calling the cycle dead. Both sides have data. Both deserve serious engagement. #btcım Which side do you think is correct?