Joined July 2015
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My last piece on fixed income markets (where I talk about G4 rates) is out.
I talked of sensitivity of the front end to oil and of the future path of central bank.
How the long tenor are (some cases) less sensitive to that and talked about my tactical views and trade about that
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[{NSN TGQENQR24UB4 <GO>} - *US-IRAN DEAL WILL ALLOW IRAN TO IMMEDIATELY SELL OIL: WSJ]
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From backwardation (too low oil) to contango (too much oil) in just a couple of months.
The greatest oil shock since 1970 flipped now?
CHART OF THE DAY: What goes into backwardation, can go into contango.
The time spreads of some key Middle Eastern crude grades have collapsed. Murban from UAE is now in contago, even before Hormuz formally re-opens with the signing of the deal, scheduled for Friday.
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Chinese Economy Stalls as Retail Sales Slump Most Since Pandemic
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And always on China some good charts from my friends at @MacroOps
With weak financial conditions and credit impulse (and headwind for industrial commodities)
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This is exactly what I meant yesterday
A low profile meeting but verbal speeches by nembers later
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🇪🇺 #ECB GOVERNING COUNCIL MEMBER NAGEL COMMENTS BY EMAIL - BBG
*ECB'S NAGEL: INFLATION OUTLOOK HAS WORSENED
*ECB'S NAGEL: SHOCK PROVING TO BE `STRONG AND PERSISTENT'
*ECB READY TO HIKE RATES AGAIN IN JULY IF NECESSARY, NAGEL SAYS
*ECB'S NAGEL: THIS WEEK'S HIKE NEEDED EVEN IF WAR ENDS QUICKLY
*ECB'S NAGEL: KEEPING ALL OPTIONS OPEN AT NEXT MEETING
*ECB'S NAGEL: WE CAN'T SIMPLY LOOK THROUGH THE SHOCK
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*TRUMP SAYS US MUST RESPOND TO IRAN'S ATTACK ON US HELICOPTER
Didn't we have a deal?
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Ratio of Nasdaq to Stoxx 50 down from the post below
Taking some profit here
Nasdaq vs Stoxx Europe, I am fading the up move here.
Some reasons:
- high equity supply in USA (IPO) and secondary (Google)
- crowded positionining in USA
- high performance in USA vs implied by earnings
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€€€ Italy Euro Benchmark Dual Tranche, Jun-2033 and Oct-2055 Taps: Book Update / Spreads Set €€€
- Jun-33 book in excess of €100bn (including €7.245bn of JLM interest
- Oct-55 book in excess of €85bn (including €5.645bn of JLM interest
I assure you that there will be no shortage of demand even if the new BTP Italia is on its way for retail.
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Hedged funds are at record short position on JPY, arguing that even another rate hike will do little to reverse structural pressures.
JPY near intervention area of 160
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Crypto and NASDAQ in free fall
As I was trying to warn that mega IPOs and equity issuances are in fact liquidity drain events.
If you were not afraid by high hyperscaler capex (and negative FCF) the now:
- record IPO (SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI)
- record secondary equity rising (80bln)
should!
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*TRUMP: STOCKS SHOULD GO UP ON 'GREAT' JOBS REPORT
*TRUMP: STOCKS SHOULD GO UP, NOT DOWN
This is true if it weren't for the short end rising by 10bp due to high inflation caused by the SoH closure
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Short Nasdaq vs long Stoxx 50 Europe was not a bad deal after all
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Tsy/Bund spiking on the stronger than expected NFP print
US Econ on 8:30AM Data:
*NFP 172k vs 88k expected
*Unemployment rate in line at 4.3%, 4.30 unrounded
*AHE in line 0.3% vs 0.3% expected
*Large upward revisions 93k to prior months in total
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US Econ on 8:30AM Data:
*NFP 172k vs 88k expected
*Unemployment rate in line at 4.3%, 4.30 unrounded
*AHE in line 0.3% vs 0.3% expected
*Large upward revisions 93k to prior months in total
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Today reading various pieces I founded it
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IRAN INFORMED PAKISTAN OF ITS ACCEPTANCE TO TRANSFER PART OF ITS URANIUM TO A THIRD COUNTRY IT AGREES UPON
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