There is such a gap between the US and Iranian descriptions of what has been agreed to that the only thing that makes sense is to ignore all the noise until we actually know the facts and to focus on the Knicks in the meantime.

Wait two hours...

IRANIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY SPOKESPERSON SAYS IRAN WILL HAVE TO CHARGE FOR SERVICES PROVIDED IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ -FARS NEWS AGENCY

There’s a real question mark over what nuclear commitments Iran has made in an MoU. There’s a suggestion from a senior U.S. official that they made commitments on stockpile, decommissioning sites, stopping nuclear program. But a closer look suggests some of that is deceptive. -1-

"the Iranians are not receiving any cash, and no funds are being released for simply signing a deal or attending a meeting"

NEW: US, Iranian, and diplomatic sources have published contradictory reports about the details of the draft US-Iran memorandum of understanding (MoU). The conflicting reports indicate that there is significant disagreement between the two sides as well as within Iran. IRGC-affiliated media published a version of the MoU that would be tantamount to a US surrender and includes all key Iranian demands, including “management” of the Strait of Hormuz, the release of frozen Iranian assets, and a US-developed reconstruction plan for Iran. Top Iranian and US officials — including Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi, US President Donald Trump, and US Vice President JD Vance — disputed the accuracy of these reports. An ultra-hardline Iranian parliamentarian said that the deal strips Iran of its ability to collect fees or manage traffic in the strait, which indicates that some ultra-hardliners also believe that the IRGC-affiliated media reports about the details of the agreement are incorrect. US sources have also suggested that Iran would make concessions under the draft MoU. A US official speaking to CNN claimed that the draft MoU includes provisions to dismantle Iran’s nuclear program and end Iranian support for the Axis of Resistance. Most other reports have stated that Iran and the United States would negotiate nuclear issues during a 60-day period after the signing of an agreement. Iran has consistently sought to strip the United States of its leverage—such as the US blockade—before entering nuclear negotiations. ISW-CTP will provide further analysis about the negotiations in its June 12 update.

Iran’s Mehr News claims a draft Trump-Iran deal would leave the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian control, provide $300B in reconstruction funding plus $24B upfront, suspend sanctions, withdraw U.S. forces from the region, ease pressure on missiles/proxies, and restrain Israel in Lebanon. #OOTT

IRAN NOT TO RESTORE HORMUZ STRAIT STATUS TO PRE-WAR LEVEL: IRNA ……IRAN SEEKS WAR COMPENSATION IN 'REALISTIC' FRAMEWORK: IRNA #OOTT

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran's @MehrnewsCom out with details of "the 14-point draft" of the MOU, as per "a source close to the Iranian negotiating team:" ▪️Permanent and immediate cessation of war on all fronts, including Lebanon. ▪️America's commitment to non-interference in Iran's internal affairs and respect for the sovereignty of the Islamic Republic of Iran. ▪️Complete lifting of the naval blockade within 30 days ▪️America's commitment to withdrawing its forces from around Iran ▪️Reopening the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days with Iranian arrangements ▪️Suspension of sanctions on the sale of oil, petrochemical products and derivatives and full access for Iran to its financial resources. ▪️The need for the United States and its allies to present reconstruction plans for Iran worth at least $300 billion. ▪️60 days of negotiations to reach a final agreement based on nuclear issues and the complete lifting of primary, secondary, US sanctions and resolutions of the UN Security Council and the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency ▪️Reiterating Iran's commitment in the NPT not to produce nuclear weapons ▪️During the negotiations, the United States has committed not to increase its forces in the region and will not impose new sanctions. ▪️Release $24 billion in blocked Iranian funds during the 60-day period of final negotiations. Half of this amount must be made available to Iran before the negotiations begin. ▪️Establishing a monitoring mechanism to implement the agreement. ▪️The final agreement will be approved by a UN Security Council resolution. ▪️The final negotiations will not begin before the release of half of Iran's frozen funds, the suspension of Iran's oil sanctions, and the lifting of the naval blockade. The final agreement will be made solely on the fate of enriched materials and enrichment, the lifting of sanctions, and the Iranian economic reconstruction program. Discussions about Iran's missile program and support for resistance groups have been definitively removed from the agenda. "As the Foreign Ministry spokesperson announced, this text still needs to be reviewed and finalized by the relevant institutions in Iran."

BREAKING - US forces have shot down two Iranian one-way attack drones, U.S. official says. Seems Iran tried to strike commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Traffic flow continues through the Strait, the official said.

Update: Fox News, citing a senior Pentagon official: In response to the Islamic Republic's attempt to target ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. forces shot down two Iranian drones.

Aside from the Hormuz traffic graph, this one best captures the essence of the last few months

The real reason oil is below $100/bbl. It isn’t fundamentals. It’s capital aversion. Policy uncertainty has made oil too volatile to hold. Investor VaR has collapsed by c.$5B. Open interest is at the lowest level in years. Global oil stocks are still drawing 5-6mb/d; however, investors say they don't care. Start with investor VaR - the best measure of how much capital is willing to engage with oil. It has collapsed to $1.4B (see chart). Not forced out by rising rates, sanctions or external margin calls. Investors are simply choosing not to hold. The policy noise - deal on/off, attack, not attack - has made the carry uncompensable. VaR compression has one direct consequence: it drains open interest. Contracts are closed. Market depth disappears. 2026 YTD open interest decline is the worst on record. Unlike 2022, there’s no rates shock or sanctions forcing the exit. This is capital aversion. Managed Money VaR and YTD OI Change

A senior Israeli official tells Channel 12 news that Jerusalem has not been made aware of a finalized US-Iran deal, seemingly contradicting an announcement made by US President Donald Trump a short while ago. timesofisrael.com/liveblog_e…

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Fars News, linked to the IRGC, says quoting an informed source close to the negotiating team: "No text for the initial memorandum of understanding with the United States has been approved."

Iran has not yet approved any text for the agreement - Fars News citing informed source

#Iran has not yet agreed any document for MOU with US - Fars

This is new - now not only do we get Iran denying existence of agreement but also the Israelis are like “what the what?”

🔴 ‘We are surprised by President Trump’s announcement, we need to wait and see what the Iranians publish to determine if its accurate,’ two Israeli officials tell i24NEWS @GuyAz

NEWS | Bessent says Iran's frozen assets will pay for Gulf damage, Hormuz tolls al-monitor.com/originals/202…