1/ Been thinking a lot about this lately: What if the cycle everyone was waiting for actually ended in early December 2024 and we’ve already been in a bear market for almost a full year? The OTHERS chart (total crypto market cap excluding the top 10 coins) is the best way to visualize this.

Imagine the smell when ETH.D reaches the 1.618 extension level

I need you to stop scrolling and try to understand something. @jvisserlabs hasn't been perfect on everything, but he has called markets much more accurately than most. For decades. The whole market has been two steps behind him on AI investing since this all started. What is Jordi buying right now? Ethereum. Jordi Visser is buying $ETH. Not loudly. Not even aggressively. He's just calmly building a position while everyone else top blasts AI. Read this over and over until you understand what's happening here. Two of the most prominent macro analysts alive, who built their careers at Goldman and Morgan Stanley, agree on this. Raoul said Ethereum was, "fking obvious." You don't have to agree with them on everything. I'm not telling you what to do. What I am saying is simply, try to understand this.

It is easy to replicate speed and scalability but it is extremely difficult to do the same for decentralization.

Everyone gets to buy ETH at the price they deserve

ETH investor Stanley Druckenmiller: “Our whole payment system will be stablecoins in 10-15 years” BitMine (BMNR), the ETH treasury company chaired by Tom Lee, holds almost $10 billion of ETH. Legendary investor Stanley Druckenmiller is listed among key backers like Founders Fund, ARK's Cathie Wood, and Bill Miller. This aligns with his recent bullish comments on stablecoins and blockchain payments: “Blockchain and the use of stablecoins — if you want to throw crypto and tokens into that — are incredibly useful in terms of productivity. I assume our whole payment system will be stablecoins in 10-15 years. Efficient. Quicker. Cheaper.”

NICE

Feb was the Panic Capitulation Anger and we are probably in depression now. Good period to accumulate for the longer term. Feeling much more comfortable to shill crypto to my normie friends at these prices.

If Ethereum becomes the dominant settlement layer, ETH functions less like a stock and more like a scarce reserve commodity-money hybrid — closer to spice (in the Dune universe) than to a typical asset.

What if this is Apr 2025 but playing out over a longer duration? ethereum:native

⚡️This print is the war premium photographed in transit through the pipeline, and the divergence inside it is the entire story. Headline 1.1% against 0.7% expected, while core misses at 4.9% against 5.4%. A fifty basis point downside miss on core YoY is a large miss, the kind that moves a regime read. Strip the energy shock out and the real signal appears: pass-through is failing. Core goods fell outright at the consumer level. Wholesale margins are compressing. Producers are eating the war premium instead of passing it on, because demand is too weak to accept the pass-through. That is a slowdown wearing an inflation print’s clothing. Put the energy shock back in and the pipeline is on fire. Both are true at once because they are two different phenomena sharing one index: a geopolitical supply shock layered on top of a cooling core economy. The number contains a war and a slowdown, and the market that trades the headline will misprice the second one. The “Fed is trapped” framing is the consensus read, and it has the logic inverted. The print untraps them. Rate policy cannot reopen Hormuz, cannot clear mines, cannot restart tanker traffic. Hiking into a supply shock buys nothing on headline while crushing a core economy where margins are already absorbing the damage. Meanwhile the core miss hands Warsh exactly the analytical cover his position requires: he can stand at his first meeting on the 16th and say the underlying trend is contained, the headline is a war tax that monetary policy cannot fight, and patience is the credible posture. A chair installed by a president who wants cuts, walking into his first FOMC with core missing by half a point. This print is his permission slip, delivered five days early. The deeper structure: the inflation trade and the Iran trade have now fully merged into one trade. If core is contained and margins are absorbing the shock, then the entire remaining inflation problem is the war premium, and the war premium resolves through the deal, not through the Fed. Which means the actual reaction function for US inflation currently runs through Doha and Lebanon, not through Eccles. The Fed’s mandate has been functionally outsourced to foreign policy for the duration of the containment process. And follow that one step further, because this is where the regime shows itself. The administration controls the deal that controls oil that controls headline inflation, and it installed the chair who decides how to respond to that inflation. Both ends of the inflation problem, cause and response, are now held by the same actor. Trump can manufacture the disinflation headline by closing the deal, then collect the rate cuts from the chair he appointed, and the data will validate the whole sequence because core was genuinely contained underneath. That is the institutional mutation in live operation: monetary policy as a downstream variable of White House statecraft, with the data cooperating.

Looks like the options thing is happening already! See also: various people thinking through and building different versions of the idea in the thread: ethresear.ch/t/building-inde… Though I do strongly urge that if any of these get on mainnet quickly, we formally verify it first. I hope @vyperlang and/or github.com/lfglabs-dev/verit… folks ( @Fricoben) can help! (Also, now is a good time to be thinking about robustness-optimized oracles) firefly.social/post/x/206494…

The lower the exchange supply the quicker the bounce when demand emerges. Selling your spot ETH is one thing but shorting ETH is poor r/r at this point

I still love Ethereum

Danny Ryan on why Wall Street cares about Ethereum's decentralization Etherealize co-founder and a key architect behind Ethereum’s transition to proof-of-stake is asked if Wall Street institutions care about “decentralization.” “That’s not the right word,” Danny replies. “They care about counterparty risk.” He explains: “They care about — in a transaction or a particular market — who can screw me over? And if the infrastructure is decentralized, nobody can turn it off, and their transactions will execute as intended . . . [that’s an] elimination of counterparty risk. That’s the operative lens of how they view the world, and if you explain how these systems work to them — and the difference between Ethereum and alternatives — they’re like, ‘Oh yeah, we do love decentralization because we have risk models and this helps us on our risk model.’” Danny jokes: “I’ve been looking for a customer of decentralization other than the cypherpunks I hung out with for the past 8 years, and I found it on Wall Street.” As long as you speak the right language and frame it the right way, Ethereum’s decentralization is deeply important to Wall Street institutions.

Bitcoin spends roughly 93% of its history with more than half the supply in profit. Currently, only 50% of supply is in profit, meaning we are in the bottom 7% of all historical readings. These are not normal market conditions. They are rare, uncomfortable, high-stress accumulation zones.

ETH is the easiest story for Wall Street to sell to retail when the time is right

The more negative comments on ETH I get from my posts, the more bullish I get

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Max pain is ETH outperform every other asset for the rest of the year

"I really think Ethereum's best time is yet to come." The first decade of smart contracts was about building the infrastructure. The decade of real-world adoption has started, and Ethereum's role has to change with it. @adietrichs of @ethereumfndn on the Main Stage at ETHConf.