Strategic mistakes carry consequences
I strongly agree with
@DanielBShapiro
The deal is deeply flawed. It will likely create serious strategic costs for any future confrontation with Iran. But given the options President Trump actually had, it was probably the least bad choice.
A naval blockade was not going to force Iran to surrender. Returning to war would have caused massive economic damage, with no guarantee of Iranian capitulation. In the end, Trump was forced to accept Iran’s terms because the alternatives were even worse.
This is a very bad deal but it may have been the best available option after a campaign that became a strategic fiasco. It was built on a profound misunderstanding of the Iranian system, and it has likely produced a more extreme and more determined Iran.
In American terms: you break it, you own it. Israel and the United States may not have succeeded in toppling the Iranian regime, but they did shatter the fragile stability of the Gulf, and, to a significant extent, the stability of the global economy, without achieving regime change in Iran.
At that point, it became America’s responsibility to restore at least a measure of stability to the global economic system, even at the high price of accepting the survival of the Iranian regime, strengthening it economically, and allowing it to preserve much of its conventional capabilities.
It is an extremely costly price to pay. But when the alternatives are bad there was no other way. when you break the system, you own the consequences.
#IranWar
#Iran
With all due caveats about a deal that has not been announced yet, some thoughts:
The US-Iran deal being described in the news is a weak deal, and the net result of this war is significant damage to US strategic interests. That said, since the war was a mistake from the beginning, we can at least be thankful it appears President Trump is moving, belatedly, to end it.
This war was ill-conceived in every respect. There were no clear strategic objectives, and no way to achieve most of the objectives mentioned at an acceptable cost.
After the Strait of Hormuz was closed, and the global economic crisis started to spread, reopening it became the most important objective.
That meant Iran had far greater leverage than we did.
So President Trump faced only terrible options, of his own making. The deal being reported is among the less terrible options he could have chosen. At least he is not choosing to escalate the war, which would cause an even greater global economic crisis.
The least terrible deal would have been a verified opening of the Strait -- and nothing else. Keep full sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program, maintain watchfulness and deterrence established in the 12-Day War last June, and try to negotiate a significant rollback of the program and intrusive inspections.
This deal is weaker than that. It reportedly provides $25 billion in unfrozen assets without receiving any concessions on the nuclear program. That money will give the regime a lifeline and help it begin restoring funding to its proxies. And there are no guarantees that Iran will make meaningful concessions on enrichment or HEU once those talks do start.
Those talks, which will likely drag on, may well take place without a credible US military threat backing them up, as the United States labors to recover from all it expended and lost in this campaign and shore up other strategic priorities (IndoPacific) that have been set back, and as US midterm elections approach.
Meanwhile, the deal says nothing about Iran's ballistic missile program or its support for proxies. Yes, US and Israeli strikes degraded, but did not eliminate, many Iranian attack capabilities. But overall, Iran has gained significant leverage for the future by demonstrating it can control the strait, by attacking its neighbors and US bases in the region and causing significant damage, and by taking the United States' and Israel's best punch and surviving with enough ability to project aggression in tact.
It's a bleak day for US strategic interests. But it's better than continuing the war and making it even worse.
Once the dust clears, one thing must not be forgotten. The Iranian people continue to live under a vicious regime. Trump has barely spoken of them in weeks. They deserve help, support, and appropriate non-military external pressures on the regime to give THEM the best chance to change it.
The Administration, which put so much faith in military power to do what it could not, should invest in Iran experts, communicators, Persian language broadcasting, transition planning, diplomacy, and more aimed at supporting the Iranian people in their quest for freedom from tyranny.
That was true in January when the Iranian people were demonstrating for their freedom. And it is still true today, despite this stupid war.