Venezuela has entered Cassandra’s “cascade zone” for the first time.
This week’s signal is not just that fragility rose or recovery weakened. The structural picture changed: elite cohesion fractured, the regime narrative collapsed, electoral integrity hit the floor, and U.S. pressure moved from coordination to something closer to supervision.
At the same time, the opposition is articulating a 2026 pathway outside the regime’s electoral architecture.
The result is a regime squeezed on three flanks at once: internal fracture, external tutelage, and an opposition timeline it does not control.
The key question now is not whether the system is under stress. It is which pressure point breaks first.
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