Stats guy that has practicing safe science since 2017. PhD but always a student. #Rstats #OpenScience
Joined October 2011
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950 Photos and videos
Pinned Tweet
29 Jul 2023
🚨New SimplyAgree (early) release🚨
Proud to announce that SimplyAgree v0.2.0 is now available on GitHub and feedback is welcome/wanted. A few details below 🧵
aaroncaldwell.us/SimplyAgree…
#Rstats
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Apr 24
Oh percent change, how I continue loathe you
Apr 23
RFK Jr: "A Democratic senator claimed it's mathematically impossible to have a drug drop by 600%. I said, 'Well, if the drug was $100 and it raises to $600, that would be a 600% rise. If it drops from $600 to $100, that's a 600% savings.'"
Trump: "Right"
Community note
Factual and mathematical error
A 100% reduction means the entire original value is removed, resulting in a final amount of zero. It signifies complete elimination or a 100% discount, such as a price dropping from $600 to 0$
increase from $100 to $600 is 500% increase
mathcentre.ac.uk/resources/uplo…
vedantu.com/calculator/per…
calculator.net/percent-calcul…
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Aaron Caldwell retweeted
Apr 13
There's a form of secular creationism that we might call Malicious Design: The idea that the limitations imposed by nature are actually the product of human systems designed to exploit or otherwise harm the masses. 🧵
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Mar 31
As a stats reviewer, can confirm and agree with all this!
Mar 31
I review the statistics in ~200 manuscripts a year for some of the top urology journals in the world.
Here's what I actually do — and the mistakes I see in almost every paper. 🧵
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Aaron Caldwell retweeted
Mar 13
"How to Lower Electricity Bills to $100 a Month"
The biggest impact is equalizing industrial and residential rates which currently reflect cost to serve but don't have to. I don't endorse all of these ideas but it's a serious proposal worth considering.
vanderbiltpolicyaccelerator.…
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Aaron Caldwell retweeted
So they are trying to blacklist Anthropic for having red lines, then agreed to the exact same red lines with OpenAI.
It's an entire administration of tryhard cosplay dorks, obsessed with the appearance of toughness, stumbling through it like drunk toddlers.
NEW: The Pentagon has agreed to OpenAI's rules for deploying its technology safely in classified settings, though no contract has been signed, a source tells Axios.
The department appears to have accepted conditions similar to those put forth by Anthropic. axios.com/2026/02/27/pentago…
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Aaron Caldwell retweeted
We did a lab experiment that showed this behavior years ago.
link.springer.com/article/10…
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Aaron Caldwell retweeted
Jan 30
I learned all this really secret awful stuff that shows the hoaxes and conspiracies really happened, but I can't tell you because it's secret and can't do anything about it because I quit because going to work every day is really hard.
Jan 30
.@dbongino says details he uncovered at the FBI of the Russia collusion hoax are shocking, warning the abuse of power against President Trump shows a total systematic breakdown:
“I was reading through some stuff that you could only read in the office, and it basically involved the collusion hoax, Crossfire Hurricane as it went by, and the various other spinoffs. And when you read it from the inside, when you see the details of what these absolute animals did to President Trump—I mean, I’m not shocked often, Sean—just reading through it and seeing it in detail for the first time, all put together. You can’t run a republic like this. You can’t—you absolutely cannot. It’s just stunning how all these guardrails broke down at the exact same time. It’s frightening how nobody thought to speak up and say, ‘Hey man, not only is this wrong, this is demonic—this is evil stuff.’”
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Aaron Caldwell retweeted
Someone made a 2025 College Football season montage to One Shining Moment and it’s amazing 😭
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Aaron Caldwell retweeted
Why is this illegal you might ask?
Anti-massing design guidelines.
Guidelines against using one material.
If you want to see these in your city, please advocate for stripping the overwrought design guidelines, AND as many other BS regulations as possible, so that builders can spend money on actual design and quality materials!
You do that by attending your local city planning meetings.
By bugging your elected officials on the local and state level to discard these outdated concepts.
Thank you for coming to my TED Talk
Jan 25
It doesn’t get much better than this.
It’s a real shame that it’s illegal to build like this on 90% of land in this country.
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Aaron Caldwell retweeted
Jan 21
Motor vehicle theft is the easiest property crime to address through tech and yet it's the one that we've gone backwards on over the past 15 years. The tools exist today to essentially end car theft if adopted: PIN to drive, remote disable, GPS tracking, cameras, encrypted keys.
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Jan 17
RT @sapinker: I resigned from the board of advisors of the University of Austin (UATX, not to be confused w U T Austin) within weeks of the…
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Aaron Caldwell retweeted
🚨New RFP Alert!🚨 @Arnold_Ventures Evidence & Evaluation team released just two new RFPs to support research evaluating the causal impacts of U.S. social programs and policies: bit.ly/4aXA43k
A short 🧵on what we're prioritizing and what's new this cycle (1/n)
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Aaron Caldwell retweeted
Jan 14
I understand why a politician has to frame it like this, but scapegoating billionaires for a problem that is in many ways bottom-up cultural issue is actually itself part of the rage economy.
Jan 13
.@ezraklein: “What is, to you, the ‘rage economy’?”
@JamesTalarico: “The billionaires own the algorithms and the news networks. They have created for-profit platforms that divide us on an hourly basis — by party, by race, by gender, by religion. They elevate the most extreme voices very strategically to provoke our outrage, because that leads to more clicks, which leads to more money for them.
They are selling us conflict right into our bloodstream, and they’re calling it connection.
And I think it’s left people starving for actual community.”
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“What is its mission?” - @HDTGM
Jan 2
American research institute IHMC’s six legged robot is built for speed and off road mobility.
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Aaron Caldwell retweeted
29 Dec 2025
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Aaron Caldwell retweeted
29 Dec 2025
This sentiment from Philip Rivers is why whole teams opting out of bowls bothers me so much.
x.com/RomeovilleKid/status/2…
29 Dec 2025
Don’t tell #Colts QB Philip Rivers a game is “meaningless.” nytimes.com/athletic/6923956…
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Aaron Caldwell retweeted
29 Dec 2025
League source confirms Marcus Freeman declined the Giants HC job after the NFL rejected his proposal for the team to set its own schedule and receive an automatic playoff berth each year.
29 Dec 2025
Head coach Marcus Freeman announced that he’s staying at Notre Dame in 2026.
NFL teams were interested in him.
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Aaron Caldwell retweeted
26 Dec 2025
I wrote about Bari Weiss-the link follows. But the largest portion of my piece focused on a critique of Weiss and the Free Press as beingfree speech hypocrites. @AdamSerwer put together the most detailed version of this complaint. theatlantic.com/ideas/2025/1… His thesis is Weiss has "a curiously narrow definition of free speech. That hypocrisy, shared by many, brought us to where we are today". Problem- his case is totally belied by the many many articles @TheFP has run blasting MAGA/right wing censorship. Serwer builds a case that depends on him ignoring copious amounts of evidence. I guess Serwer didn't know, didn't look, or doesn't care bc it hurts his thesis. But here are specific and direct contradictions of what he alleges ...
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Aaron Caldwell retweeted
13 Aug 2025
Very good @Noahpinion piece debunking the claim that corporate ownership is driving up rents noahpinion.blog/p/corporatio…
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