After Helene, there will be more Atlantic hurricanes to come...
A convective pulse (🟢) traversing the basin will move and hold over Africa in the weeks ahead.
This will leave the Atlantic very favorable toward additional development.
October could be quite a busy month!
8pm EDT Aug 29th -- NHC is now monitoring two tropical waves, one in the central Tropical Atlantic that has a medium chance (50%🟠) & one off the coast of Africa that has a low chance (20%🟡) of TC development over the next 7 days.
Latest Outlook: nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=…
ALT 7 day Tropical Weather Outlook Graphic for 8pm EDT 29 August 2024 highlighting two tropical waves with a chance to become tropical cyclones.
An Atlantic hurricane during the first week of September has been consistently forecast by ECMWF/AIFS over the last two days.
It will be interesting to see if the dynamical guidance catches onto this signal or if the artificial intelligence guidance loses it as it get closer...
Looking to find out how #WildfireSmoke is expected to move across North America over the next 72 hours?
Check out the #Wildfire Smoke Prediction System (FireWork) map ⬇️
ow.ly/a3pn50T4wJY
ALT Wildfire Smoke Prediction System (FireWork) map showing surface fine particulate matter from wildfire sources.
Quiet Atlantic today behind #Ernesto, on the proverbial "bell ring" day of 8/20. The next (possible) area to watch is a wave a few days from moving off Africa. Some models try to develop this wave as it interacts with the monsoon trough off Africa. Probably 7-10 days from any potential development, though, and it's not a lock due to dry air and uncertainty about wave structure.
I know that smell! Got some wildfire smoke in the #MTL area. Low-concentration; visibility is still great on this beautiful, breezy day (after the deluge yesterday). Image from firesmoke.ca#meteoqc
Debby's passing over Montreal right now. Can see blue sky amidst all the chaos. No, it is not "eerily calm". It is windier than ever and my friend around the corner just lost her power. But she can't come over without a canoe (seriously).