The main effect of AI in the biotech industry over the next 5-10 years will be to greatly increase the value of an already scarce resource: senior scientific judgement
when every senior scientist has greater operational leverage (faster hit finding, better lead optimization, agentic execution of experiments, AI aided recruitment of clinical trials, etc.)
--> the key *scientific* decisions in making a drug become even more critical:
- target selection --> already the make or break question for most biotechs, but definitely can't be replaced by AI for the time being
- indication selection for chosen target
- clin dev strategy (which patient pop to enter first, what to choose as control, etc)
Small groups of scientists, armed with computational tooling, a la nimbus, nuvalent, etc. will have an outsized share of drugs developed