The best remaining option—the only remaining option to have a chance of staying on a trajectory in which the physical and biogeochemical conditions in the Anthropocene at least vaguely resemble that of the Holocene inter-glacial, as we will show in more detail in the next section—is a trans-formation toward
sustainable stewardship (pathway 1).
Such a transformation would entail a drastic reduction of human pressures, on all scales and in all domains (e.g., 7.5% annual greenhouse gas emission reduction (United Nations Environment Programme, 2024). Over time, it would bring the Earth system back from its current transgression of seven ofnine Planetary Boundaries to the safe operating space (Richardsonet al., 2023; Sakschewski et al., 2025) (albeit with an effectively permanent loss of biosphere integrity—both in terms of loss of species and loss of ecological functions). A major problem we are facing, however, is the long residence time of carbon dioxide (Archer & Brovkin, 2008) in the atmosphere: only part of our emissions is taken up by the ocean and the terrestrialbiosphere on a timescale of decades to centuries, while much of it remains for tens of thousands of years until gradually removed by sedimentation inthe deep sea (Cartapanis et al., 2018; DeVries, 2022). Our current actions will affect humanity's living conditions for thousands of years to come. Soeven the best outcome, pathway 1, cannot be considered “good”– it is merely “manageable” in the sense that the Earth system would continue to operate in a Holocene‐like way and that there is hope that established ways of living overall could be preserved. But our environment would still deviate far away from what it was during the Holocene, and we would be burdened with committed change to both the physical/chemical and the living world for millennia to come.
New Anthropocene paper. Earth still operates in "Holocene logic", buffering heat imbalance. Anthropocene = Pressure. But, BAU, reaching 3°C in 2100 & we get "stuck" in a Hothouse trajectory for 1000 years. Anthropocene risks turning into a state. No Good.
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