Was talking with a friend at a large VC fund a customer at another an asset manager today. Went into the Thoma Bravo and Medallia news from yesterday. Sharing notes / the "so what" below.
TL;DR
-Thoma Bravo handed Medallia to its lenders. $5.1B of equity, gone.
-Thoma Bravo bought Medallia in 2021 for $6.4B. About $3.4B of equity, $3B of debt. Five years later the company couldn't service its debt. Lenders (Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Antares) took the company in a "debt-for-equity" swap. Thoma Bravo's equity went to zero.
Three things broke at once
1.) Rates. Medallia's debt was "floating rate". In 2021 the all-in rate was around 4.5%. Interest expense was $135M a year. As rates rose, that bill more than doubled to $278M. An extra $143M each year w/o that big of a change in revenue.
2.) Multiples. Software businesses like Medallia traded at 15-20x EBITDA in 2021. Today they trade at 8-12x (maybe even less). Even with flat EBITDA, enterprise value compresses 30-40% from multiple contraction alone.
3.) AI. Medallia's core offering is customer experience. Collect survey and feedback data across every touchpoint (web, call center, email, in-store), run text analytics on the unstructured stuff, build dashboards for ops and CX leaders, feed it back into workflows. That used to be a moat. You needed the survey infrastructure, the NLP models, the integrations, the enterprise sales motion. Hard to replicate. AI-native versions do most of this better. An agent can read every call transcript, every support ticket, every review, every chat in real time. No traditional survey needed.
Any one of these alone may have been okay. Together they create the zero.
The more interesting point from PE land.
PE firms can't control rates. They can't control multiples. The only variable they control is EBITDA. And in a world where AI is both the biggest threat to SaaS moats and the biggest lever for EBITDA improvement, the firms that figure out AI inside their portfolios will have very different outcomes than the firms that don't.
How we're thinking about it at Casper Studios is shifting too. I'm for sure biased but I see this as a tailwind for the business.
We're working with a few large-cap PE portfolio companies right now. The work is interesting and intense (!). There's a ton of pressure to drive EBITDA improvement fast, to get to a better multiple and a better story. Some are moving fast. Some aren't. It's been fascinating to be in the middle of it.
I can't share much more than that, but this is the most top-of-mind conversation I'm having right now. A few months ago I wouldn't have said you're late. Today, at a minimum, this should be a topic in every exec meeting.
The next few years of PE (and funds, and private credit) are going to be interesting. DM me if I can share any insights we're picking up in the space.
Thoma Bravo is reportedly handing over the software company Medallia to creditors after restructuring negotiations failed to materialize
This is a $5.1 billion equity wipe out for the firm, who bought the business for $6.4 billion in 2021
Largest creditors include Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Antares and Ares
This loan was last marked anywhere between 70c to 100c on the dollar, according to most recent BDC filings from them