UPGRADE! A SEVERE or G4 geomagnetic storm is now predicted by the Space Weather Prediction Center ! This *could* bring widespread auroral displays to the United States *if* things ensue as modeled. This is anticipated TONIGHT, Monday night, January 19!
We are awaiting a magnetic shockwave called a CME, or coronal mass ejection. A NASA model shows the CME may be stronger, and faster, than originally modeled, meaning it could slam Earth's magnetic field around 8 p.m. Eastern time Monday night. That impact will spark auroral displays.
The northern U.S. may see some colors overhead, primarily green and/or purple, whereas areas to the south might notice a reddish or green glow on the northern horizon. The colors won't appear quite as vibrant to your eyes as they do on camera, but an impressive display remains possible.
NOTE: there remains uncertainty regarding the timing, and realistically the impact could ensue any time within 6 hours either side of that time frame.
Also note that, while we believe the CME will hit Earth, a more glancing blow can't be ruled out. That would reduce impacts.
This is all associated with an X2-class solar flare, which launched off the sun around 11:09 a.m. Eastern time Sunday. It originated from sunspot 4341, a large, bruise-like discoloration on the surface of the sun throbbing and pulsating with magnetic energy. It's also a cooler region on the sun's surface.
Solar flares are flashes of light and electromagnetic radiation that expel high-energy particles through space at the speed of light. This particular flare caused a degradation of radio wave propagation and partial radio blackout over western South America and the eastern South Pacific.
The flare was followed by a CME, or coronal mass ejection, accompanied the flare. CMEs are slower waves of magnetism and ejected solar plasma that surf through space like a shockwave. They take a couple days to reach Earth (when they’re Earth-directed). Stronger ones are usually faster.
CMEs interact with Earth’s magnetic field, which transforms potentially harmful energy and magnetism into visible light — the aurora.
This CME is set to reach us within about 36 hours, which is very fast. That means a heftier impact.
Isolated yourself from city lights and find a clear, unobstructed view of the northern horizon. Check the weather forecast first too... and stay tuned here for updates.
Also note that we do NOT HAVE A SPECIFIC TIME. Space weather forecasting is still in its infancy, and timing your observation with the occurrence of an auroral “substorm” is purely a game of luck. 10 p.m. Eastern time/9 p.m. Central may be a good time to attempt viewing.