Into computer vision and crowd forecasting. PhD student and Good Judgment @superforecaster
Joined January 2025
- Tweets 44
- Following 452
- Followers 79
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I'll be at CVPR (Denver, June 3-7) and Manifest (Berkeley, June 12-14), looking forward to meeting people :)
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Shower thought: Polymarket is now rolling out fees widely. And for market buys only they collect the fees in shares not USDC. So if one side disproportionately market buys, Polymarket-the-company has a stake in their own markets. Isn’t that potentially dicey?
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Here are their biggest holdings. Had the shooter at the Correspondents’ Dinner yesterday been successful, Polymarket as a company would have won about $25,000 in their own prediction market!
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Update: Polymarket’s V2 contracts fixed this! They now collect all their fees in pUSD so this shouldn't be an issue going forward.
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Also it brings me no pleasure but here is my referral link :( polymarket.com/?r=JohnnyTenN…
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This seem really exciting! Forecasting workshop at ICML with talks @PTetlock, @rohanalur, @tshevl and Nicole Kagan from @KalshiResearch forecasting-workshop.github.…
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Johnny Ten-Numbers retweeted
New feature: ROI
If a trader deposited $1,000 and turned it into $10,000 profit, that's a 1,000% ROI
Someone making $10k from $1k is way more impressive than making $10k from $100k.
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There's a bunch of third party trading terminals for Polymarket now. Wish list 🧵 with some more involved features I'd love:
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9. Another way of trading shares. Now that Polymarket has fees enabled for some markets, it would be interesting to have another exchange for the exact same conditional tokens but without the fees.
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cc @betmoardotfun @insight_predict @polymtrade @StandDOTtrade @Chance_ @fireplacegg @polyfactual @PolymarketBuild I would pay money for these
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