"You are never as smart as u think you are when you are making money or as dumb as u think when losing"

"The UFC event captures something about this moment in our history. After all, it’s vulgar, it’s violent, it’s commercial, it’s grandiose, it’s tacky, and it dishonors a place once thought worthy of care and respect. In other words, it’s Donald Trump." open.substack.com/pub/thebul…

Putin is taking lessons in bald-faced lying from Trump?

Feeling like I must have missed Iran's "unconditional surrender." Feel free to give me the dang details.

There are now 40 different ETFs with direct exposure to SpaceX $SPCX stock just 1 day after the company goes public per @EricBalchunas

FIRST HALF OF JUNE NEW HIGHS TENDS TO LEAD TO HIGHER HIGHS The S&P currently resides 2.34% from the June 2nd High. Since 1950, I see sixteen, prior cases of new 12 Month Highs being set in the first half of June. The performance in the remainder (Jun15-Dec31) of those 16 years was somewhat normal, 12-4 for an avg/med gain of 5.2/8.1% with three of the sixteen time frames experiencing a 10% Drawdown at some point as measured from June 15. But you were promised Higher Highs before year end as none of those 16 years was the High set in June and, In 14 of those 16 cases, the High for the year was set in the 4th Quarter, nine occurring in December. A snippet of the presentation on this subject shared with Study Subscribers this week. waynewhaley.witterlester@gmail.com for subscription inquiries.

Lost in the noise of the $SPCEX IPO yday was how orderly it was. Credit the underwriters. Over the yrs they have gained the ability to control to whom stock is allocated to manage the amount of flipping. That helps (See DTC IPO Tracking). They opened trading before noon.

I am somewhat comforted that age and experience are not completely useless. A friend asked me on here where I thought $SPCX would open and I said $150 - $158. I just hurt myself trying to pat myself on the back.

$SPCX coming down on Hyperliguid.

Sadly, U.S. residents can't trade $SPCX perpetual futures on Hyperliquid. They are having a picnic there as the indications move around for the U.S. opening.

3 NASDAQ Hindenburg Omens in 3 days: An “OMG, SELL EVERYTHING!!!” signal? No. A warning of potentially below-average results over the next 2 to 6 months? Yes. React as you see fit. @sentimentrader

$SPCX Unlike most everyone else, I have no idea where the stock will trade. But I can tell you that a level to watch is $175.50. If $SPCX trades 30% ⬆️ issue ($135) for 5 of 10 consecutive trading days, approximately 400 million shares would be freed from their 6-month lockups.

$ES_M is trading 7415.00 19.00. Overnight trading had something for everyone with a low of 7374.75 and a high of 7451.25. The unknowns of the vague declarations of a deal with Iran by Trump are mixed in with animal spirts from the $SPCX IPO.

The odds of the @nyknicks, the visiting team in game 5 of the NBA Finals with a 3 - 1 lead, winning game 5 are only slightly better than 50 - 50 at 52.6%. There have been 38 prior such occasions and the team leading the series only won 20 of them. Thank you Mr. Perplexity.

A balanced take on the $SPCX IPO from Dan Niles and how he thinks it trades in the coming weeks.

Choose wisely. The list ignores that somewhere between 17% - 20% of companies that went public in the last 35 years no longer exist. About 45% of IPOs merge or are acquired and not necessarily have been profitable investments vs. their IPO price. Lucent is an obvious example.

"Cash on the sidelines" is an inevitable theme in bull markets. That said, it's a hopeful narrative that never comes to pass.

Risk management should never go out of vogue

W/ the $SPCX hype, take a look at $AMZN's IPO. It went public on 5/15/97 priced @ 0.075 (split adjusted). It traded as high as 0.125 ( 66.67%) that day. A wk later it traded as low as 0.0656 -47.5% from 1st day's high. Impulsive chasing can be expensive.

As a retired flipper/dumper of IPOs, I'd stick to my MO, sell my allocations on the opening tick knowing full well it might look foolish quickly. I'd trade the IPO, buying the IPO in the after-mkt to show the underwriters what a good fellow I am (and quickly sell what I bought).