I meet the most interesting people. A man just came up to me and asked if I speak English (I get asked that a lot).
I said “yeah, what’s up?” I saw him glance at my crucifix and he walked closer and said, “don’t worry, I mean ya no harm. I’m gonna be honest with you, I have HIV. The medication I need is $9.87. Same stuff
@MagicJohnson takes. Can you help me out?”
I never carry cash, but fortunately I was standing by an ATM. Gave him a $20. He said he was gonna get food with the rest.
One of my favorite books in high school was “Things Fall Apart” by Chinua Achebe. This idea of inosculation — that sometimes our roots fail, but strong trees with deep roots hold up those trees whose roots have failed — makes me think that in the toughest of times, things might also fall together.
I’ve been thinking a lot about this in the context of complex systems and geopolitics.
One paradigm for understanding the current state of the world is best described as “recalcitrant interdependence.”
The unipolar world that Krauthammer wrote of had given way to bifurcated world that’s torn between freedom and authoritarianism.
While America remains the largest grantor of humanitarian assistance worldwide, in a “worst case” scenario where many nation states fail almost simultaneously, would America’s economy be strong enough to sustain our moral obligations to help the most poor and vulnerable, wherever they are?
What keeps America moving and alive?
I would argue that it’s our strategic energy base, followed by our productive farm capacity and food supply chains, our defense industrial base, and then our industrial base more broadly.
If many nation states were to collapse simultaneously, the inexorable urge for authoritarians would be to make themselves insular in order to attend to their own needs first, in order to prevent the same fate — a collapse of governance and a loss of social control — from befalling them.
This would accompany a kind of vascular constriction on the free flow of information, and thar would in turn cause a suppression of market price discovery mechanisms for basic goods… and this would, ironically, lead to the kinds of shortages which might hemorrhage into the streets in the form of revolution.
Fortunately, America’s market resilience is built into the First Amendment, and by God’s Grace, the First Amendment is built into
@X. Even in the worst of times, we are able to speak up — if nowhere else, then here, on this platform which has become the world’s town square — and say “you need that? We have this.”
Anyhow, it’s sometimes best not to plan merely for the worst case scenario, but to target the best endstate for what comes *after* that worst case scenario. Every challenge is an opportunity.
If tomorrow the world were to find out that a massive flood is going to submerge the entire planet, would truly wise people build an ark just big enough for themselves?
Or would wise people build an ark big enough for everyone who is willing to verifiably disarm themselves and join together in the great undertaking of planning and preparing for the flood to come, provided, of course, that they repay us for our contribution of early warning and early action — or pay it forward in our name — if they’re able?
I don’t have a definite answer for every “what if,” but the way my brain works is that I assess 0.001%-type problems and risks and try over and over again to converge on solutions or mitigations with 99.999% accuracy.
Every captain knows that the most consequential decision they make is who they allow onto their vessels. Because I’m cursed with foresight, many of the problems/risks that I forecast and have sought to solve or mitigate in the past are no longer 0.001%-type problems/risks today, so maybe we should give more thought to the kinds of scenarios that we previously considered unthinkable, and then prepare for those… before the levees break.
How to bear each other's suffering – Nobel Peace Prize laureate Elie Wiesel on the antidote to our paralysis in the face of overwhelm
themarginalian.org/2023/01/1…