The BBC's Projected National Share in GB translates into the following seat tally: ➡️REF: 376 ( 371) 🌹LAB: 113 (-299) 🔸LD: 71 (-1) 🌳CON: 12 (-109) 🟢Green: 5 ( 1) Reform Majority of 100.

I'm calling it. Burnham wins by a margin that exceeds the vote share of Restore Britain. 🌹LAB: 47% ➡️REF: 35% 🇬🇧RES: 7% BOOKMARK THIS TWEET.

Oh yes. Who could forget about the Scottish seats as well? There's not 1 parliamentary by-election taking place on Thursday, but 3: Makerfield Aberdeen South Arbroath and Broughty Ferry Outside chance of Tories gaining Aberdeen South (20% chance), but both Scottish seats should be SNP holds. Anything else would be an upset especially considering the SNP was reduced to a rump in Parliament back in 2024.

What do the vote shares in the upcoming Makerfield by-election mean for the parties? Here is my list of what bad/average/good/great looks like for the top 3 parties: 🌹 LAB: 37% / 42% / 46% / 50% ➡️ RFM: 32% / 36% / 40% / 45% 🇬🇧 RES: 3% / 7% / 10% / 15%

Judging by this response, the Labour Party may want to U turn on votes at 16.

There isn't an industry standard for defining what a 3 horse race is in British politics, but if 1st place and 3rd place are separated by a margin lower than 10%, then I will record myself eating a hat.

Three mutually exclusive scenarios from the Makerfield by-election and their probable outcomes. 1) Labour wins by a margin greater than Restore's vote: Andy Burnham becomes PM and Reform pivots to the centre policy-wise to court a bigger pool of voters. 2) Labour wins by a margin that is lower than Restore's vote: Andy Burnham becomes PM and Reform pivots right to win back disaffected Restore voters and in so doing alienates the Tory/ex-Labour waverers, but quashes Restore's momentum. 3) Reform wins: Business as usual and pressure mounts to oust Starmer, except there is no obvious replacement. Starmer stays on until 2029 and Restore remains a threat on the right to Reform. If this poll is anything to go by, then expect a Starmer sacking and a Burnham bounce.

Very good analysis here. Another point worth analysing is the proportion of voters in 2026 locals who didn't vote in 2024. The party that can re-engage with non voters the most effectively will get the keys to Number 10.

A key point from the data we collected for this post is the importance of differential turnout in the local elections. Reform 2024 voters were just much more enthusiastic than those of other parties. Had it been even their percentage would have fallen into the low 20s.

I wonder. If Labour beat Reform in Makerfield by a margin wider than Restore's vote share, will there be any fall out?

Restore Britain is a good eg of the Netflixification of British politics, where social media has reduced the barriers to entry so much you can now find and vote for a political party that is most entirely attuned to your preferences without needing to swallow bits you don’t like. Why Netflixification? In the past with TV you’d have to watch one of four or five channels with content tailored to the median viewer. Some were habitual channel hoppers but for most you’d like some of it not all of it and switch between them if you were really unhappy. Netflix, Disney, Prime change all of that, rather than watching median content you can watch exactly what you want when you want, no compromises needed. So too with political parties. In the past most would stick with the big 3 or 4. Some people were habitual swing voters, most stuck with parties even if they didn’t like everything they advocated. It was best fit rather than perfect match. Social media changes that, it reduces barriers to entry for new parties and enables more choice. Increasingly we find can vote for parties that directly fit our world view because of the platform They are given to reach people directly as Lowe has shown. Reform was a product of that opening, but what’s striking is Restore shows it’s not the end point. For some Reform involves too much compromise and so they are able to go for a more “full fat version” and so rather than the 7 party system in Britain being the new end point it could just be the start (an extreme end point is a form of direct democracy where parties are perfectly attuned to individual voter preferences). Obviously there are still factors which pull against the personalisation of politics, greater fragmentation also incentivises more tactical voting which squeezes that individual choice. Nor is social media the sole reason for fragmentation, the failure of the main parties to deliver post 2008 and the broken social contract are clearly the biggest drivers of the turn away from traditional mainstream, but social media enables it more. In fact the internet/social media have enabled (for good or ill) more personalisation in every other area of life, politics was a bit slower getting there.

Makerfield by-election briefing. Data tables and all prior materials are on the link below: Points to note. *This is a poll of 505 people in Makerfield this week and should be seen as an indicative early look. *By-election headline voting intention with named candidates as were available is the 3 point Labour lead over Reform from table V5 *Reform (45%) have a 9 point lead over Labour on a generic Westminster polling question *Burnham has strong leads among women and younger groups, Kenyon fares better with older voters in general and leads among men. *How the Green and Restore campaigns pan out could be key. There's also at least a 7% Green Westminster vote share up for grabs. *Do get in touch if you have question or concerns and have a lovely Sunday! mailchi.mp/survation/whats-t…]

If Labour's vote drops by only 2 points since 2024, then that is a real vindication of @AndyBurnhamGM's popularity in Greater Manchester. Pincer movement from Restore doesn't help Reform much either. Restore getting 5-7% in Reform target seats will cost Reform up to 100 seats.

Fasten your seatbelts. 30-Year treasury gilts have reached a 10 year high. Even higher than just after the Truss mini-budget was announced

Reform may have fallen short in the Banffshire and Buchan Coast constituency by 300 votes, but they topped the vote there in the regional list by nearly 5%. ➡️ RFM: 33.8% 🟡 SNP: 29.0% 🌳 CON: 20.5% 🟢 GRN: 4.5% 🔸️LD: 4.4% 🌹 LAB: 4.0%