Joined November 2009
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"Israel is concerned that Iran will be stronger, the US will be weaker and that the future for it will be bleak in the region. This war has been a disaster for Israel." They probably shouldn't have started it then
Netanyahu has decided to accept the Iranian deal. Security officials are despondent and see it as a disaster. Ynet brings some high level quotes from them: 1) A senior Israeli official said "Nobody is happy with this. We understand it is not good for us, and that it harms Israeli interests. What is troubling is that Israel cannot influence it. Its voice is not being heard." 2) The anger at Trump is palpable.: "Trump screwed us, we took the hit. We're no longer in the loop and can't really influence anything." 3) Israelis fear Iran will be economically revived: "They've blown money on the Iranians, who are getting everything they want. They'll build a missile corps, and we'll have to pour money into interceptors." Israel sees oil revenue flowing back into the exact capabilities the war was meant to degrade. 4) They don't believe a deal will adequately deal with the nuclear issue: "The real test of the deal is removing the uranium and destroying it. If that doesn't happen, the sense of a bad deal will turn into something more concrete." 5) They fear this will embolden Iran: "Iran has smelled that it can achieve things by force, and it will use that against its neighbors and against us." 6) The deepest worry is not military. It is perception. After months of direct fire, Iran is seen across the region as the side that took the pressure and did not fold: "the regional working assumption will be that it was signed under Iranian pressure and American capitulation, rather than the reverse." Israel is concerned that Iran will be stronger, the US will be weaker and that the future for it will be bleak in the region. This war has been a disaster for Israel.
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Mathias Rust retweeted
Replying to @robertgraham
My neighbor, Hong Xia (naturalized Chinese man), has informed me that Trump's grasp on the Mandate of Heaven is now tied to the state of the algae in the reflection pool. It will stay clear if God wills it, if not we all apparently know what it means
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Mathias Rust retweeted
Silent gen: we ate dirt sandwiches during the great depression Boomers: my dad died in ww2 and I got drafted to fight in Vietnam Gen X: leaded fuel made us psychotic and we started smoking at 9 years old Millenials: my parents are divorced and im bartender with a PhD Gen Z:
Being raised in an anti SpongeBob household is a lifelong social handicap and lowkey abusive
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I hate when this happens and you can't get out the door without accepting the quest
Trying to avoid eye contact with my wife this Saturday morning as she has a big exclamation point quest giver mark over her head
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Mathias Rust retweeted
No matter how self-evidently disastrous the Iran War was the FDD and other more sophisticated institutional advocates for it will continue doing everything they can to stay upbeat and frame it as a positive because that is the only way they can hope to sell a future president on somehow resuming it, or even generally just staying involved in the region at this point. People who advocated for this war for decades are like the proverbial dog who caught the car and would have been better off had it not happened. The fulfillment of their wildest dream turned out to be something far more onerous than they bargained for and they wound up doing serious harm to the United States in the process.
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Mathias Rust retweeted
There is such a gap between the US and Iranian descriptions of what has been agreed to that the only thing that makes sense is to ignore all the noise until we actually know the facts and to focus on the Knicks in the meantime.
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"FDD is a think tank. We engage with ideas. We don't call for murdering people for their ideas." You literally spend decades advocating a war to kill lots of people, against all sensibility and wisdom. You are as bad as any of these people
I'm actually quite proud to work at FDD and not at a place where people engage in the worst kind of social media gotcha-ism to crucify someone for the worst possible interpretation of something they said, something they never intended. FDD is a think tank. We engage with ideas. We don't call for murdering people for their ideas. That's what Iran did by putting FDD on its hit list. No, we advocate policies and call out terrible ideas, like when Beinart advocates for Jews to relinquish self-determination in the world's only Jewish state. Anyone who knows the history of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and follows Palestinian current events (or other sectarian conflicts) would know that that is a recipe for a bloodbath. Khamenei, Sinwar, and Nasrallah all engaged in military efforts to destroy Israel and were themselves dealt with militarily. Beinart engages in intellectual efforts to destroy Israel and should be dealt with intellectually. Perhaps stepping out of social media's toxicity would be helpful for those putting words into Mark's mouth and attacking him for their imagination.
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A biostatistician friend was excited for mythos. Not so much anymore
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know the Claude rules
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BMD bros in SHAMBLES
Huh it is true. Wow Combined with the confirmed hits on radars and this...dang, the US looks baaad.
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Huh it is true. Wow Combined with the confirmed hits on radars and this...dang, the US looks baaad.
Iran 🇮🇷 posted high resolution satellite image of Israel 🇮🇱 Ramat David base hit by its ballistic missiles 👇 Worse than I thought. Direct submunitions hits. NOT "debris".
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Mathias Rust retweeted
Gulf officials to sycophantic thinktankers/journalists: Iran has really done it, they've united the region against them, they're a mad dog that needs to be put down Gulf officials to Iranian officials: ok fair play, let's cut a deal before the Americans get us all killed
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Mathias Rust retweeted
Euros keep pretending that somehow America's greater capacity for assimilation is just due to the different immigrants we get. Meanwhile, Lawrence, Kansas, is maybe two weeks away from sending a battalion of volunteers for the Algerian efforts to aid the Sahrawi.
Won’t shock me if Lawrence residents learn the Algerian national anthem. The KU band learning the anthem for them is impressive enough in itself. Plus, the Algerians will be putting on a kids camp after about 45 minutes of training. #LesVerts
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"a lot of smack talk heard today"
C-17 crew is up there citing #OSINT like the rest of us squinting at a sketchy tweet at 1 AM. @thebaldgeek
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Mathias Rust retweeted
American credibility has deteriorated to the point where the president can announce a diplomatic agreement and the near-universal reaction is "let's wait for confirmation from Tasnim"
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I'm not a 100% clear on recent sat photos on Israel. Maxar and western companies are still limiting purchases afaik and the Chinese companies don't usually have great clarity
Satellite imagery confirms yesterday's Iranian ballistic missile attack scored a direct hit on a warehouse at Ramat David Air Base, located at 32°39'43.65"N 35°10'53.39"E. Ramat David is the Israeli Air Force's only major base in northern Israel, about 46 km from Lebanon.
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This would be a *very* major hit though, if it occurred. Regardless of what exactly is in the warehouse, the salvo numbers of Iranian fires were small enough that Arrow *should* have been plenty to defend, especially adding Jordan
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x.com/BarakRavid/status/2065… Never beating the allegations

Trump has claimed an agreement was close multiple times before, and Tehran has yet to confirm his latest claim. However, three sources briefed on the talks told me that key gaps were narrowed during talks between Iranian officials and Qatari mediators on Wednesday
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۲۲:۲۷/ ۲۱ خرداد برخلاف ادعای ترامپ، هیچ متن توافقی میان ایران و امریکا نهایی نشده است.
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Christ
📍Confirmed hit at Jabal al-Dukhan Long Range Radar site, Bahrain. *found a photo of the hill on a hiking website, matches the cropped image of smoke on the mountain.
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