#Alert
Türkiye’s Rising Influence in Somalia as Western Leverage Declines
Türkiye’s influence inside Somalia is growing steadily at a time when the role and political leverage of Western partners appear to be diminishing. As political tensions in Mogadishu intensify, sections of Somalia’s political opposition remain hesitant to align openly with Western actors seeking to mediate the crisis, particularly while Türkiye is already deeply and actively involved in the country’s political and security landscape.
At the same time, the contributions of the United States, the United Kingdom, and the European Union to Somalia’s state-building process remain substantial, albeit increasingly constrained by limitations in political engagement and operational approach. Western partners continue to play an important role in supporting state institutions, infrastructure development, security sector reform, counterterrorism efforts, humanitarian assistance, and budgetary support. However, their comparatively cautious and measured involvement has created perceptions of reduced influence at a time when Türkiye’s presence continues to expand.
In a recent interview, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud (HSM) made clear the scale of Türkiye’s commitment, influence, and willingness to remain engaged in Somalia. His remarks reinforced a broader perception among political analysts that Ankara recognized strategic opportunities in Somalia long before many Western capitals did, or before they were prepared to act on them.
Fifteen years ago, Türkiye made what many considered a high stakes gamble by investing in one of the world’s most fragile and unstable states. While many Western partners adopted a more risk conscious approach, Türkiye moved decisively, constructing its largest embassy in Africa in Mogadishu and establishing its most significant overseas military and security training base in Somalia. This long term investment strategy enabled Ankara to cultivate influence across multiple layers of Somali society and institutions.
Today, Türkiye’s sustained security, political, and financial investments are translating into growing leverage on the ground. Having invested heavily over more than a decade, Ankara has little incentive to loosen its strategic foothold or reduce its role in shaping Somalia’s political and security trajectory.
Regarding the ongoing dialogue between the federal government and the opposition, Türkiye appears focused on facilitating an outcome rooted in political understanding and consensus. Its apparent objective is to support a negotiated settlement capable of enabling broadly accepted elections while safeguarding economic stability and preventing disruption to the functioning of state institutions. At the same time, Ankara is likely seeking to preserve the confidence of both the government and opposition, avoiding the perception of aligning too closely with either side.
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