Professor at the University of Utah; opinions are my own. Written some books about marriage & divorce. NAGA winner. Pot-bellied pig owner. No Substack.

Joined October 2014
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I'm pleased to announce the publication of Professors Speak Out: The Truth About Campus Investigations. Its participants tell stories about Twitter mobs, trumped up charges, & institutional bad faith from folks like @LiamOMaraIV, @PsychRabble, @eweissunburied, & @natehoneycutt.
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Quantitative types only: can anyone make an intelligent case for why either fractional polynomial regression or LASSO regression exist? It appears that fractional polynomial regression has been used in a single empirical paper. Did I miss something? jstor.org/stable/26538632?ca…

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Do the “universities are hotbeds of Marxist indoctrination” people have a favored explanation for why all of these alleged vipers dens of anti-capitalism primarily produce graduates that staff the Fortune 500?
When a large majority of graduates have a better opinion of socialism than capitalism, I think whether their professors identified as Marxist is missing the point. It's obviously leftist economics and history they were taught. Is that strictly "Marxism"? Choose your Scotsman.
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Thread, & some qualifiers. 1, these numbers cry out for denominators. 2, the presence of these terms may reflect Mellon’s priorities, not those of grant recipients. More than once I’ve added gratuitous boilerplate to mollify a journal or foundation.
On the academia is full of Marxists debate: it’s illustrative to look at Mellon, the largest source of academic humanities funding by orders of magnitude. Projects tagged w/ Marxism in their grant database? 0 Gender studies? 46 Black studies? 25 Social Justice? 42 Latinx? 451
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RIP Rep. Barney Frank, a modern icon of liberalism.
Barney Frank was one of a kind. For more than three decades in Congress, he fought tirelessly for the people of Massachusetts, helped make housing more affordable, stood up for the rights of LGBTQ Americans, and helped pass one of the most sweeping financial reforms in history designed to protect consumers and prevent another financial crisis. Barney’s passion and wit were second to none, and our thoughts are with his family today.
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$22,567 per day. That’s what Perry County, TN will pay Larry Bushart for every day it kept him in jail over a Trump meme. He lost 37 days of his life and his job, and missed his anniversary and the birth of his grandchild. All for speech the First Amendment protects. Proud that @TheFIREorg helped Larry fight back and win, and even prouder that the First Amendment still has teeth.
May 20
Last year, the police jailed Larry Bushart for 37 days on a $2M bond for posting a meme after Charlie Kirk’s murder. With our help, Larry sued Perry County, TN, and its sheriff for violating his rights in retaliation for his protected speech. He has received a $835K settlement.
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Thread, with an interesting result about marriage intentions. Question: are there differences between lottery players and non-players? NB @BradWilcoxIFS
May 18
Newly published: men who win the lottery are more likely to get married and have children. Women who win the lottery aren't. As in the Baby Boom: there was good income for young men (but not women) which boosted marriage and fertility.
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For what it's worth, here's what @claudeai thinks 86 means.
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Who's lamenting the falling teen birth rate? This seems like a strawman to me.
🧵In an upside down world, we are currently lamenting the fact that the teen birth rate is low, that teens are not having sex, and that teens are drinking less (as if these bad things). The only drinking teens do is binge drinking, btw. Yes, phone isolation is a problem but. . .
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It would be terrible. A huge proportion of women would not be able to find mates, they would end up bitter & then take out their bitterness on the world. Anything outside a 50/50 ratio is a recipe for trouble. x.com/lost_nomad__/status/20…

Of course, I don’t approve of this negativity toward men. It’s repulsive But the effect of having a gender skew toward female might be positive. Is there a reason to believe we wouldn’t all be happier with, say, 55% women and 45% men?
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"Although we tend to worry more about girls’ disadvantages in math and science, boys’ disadvantage in reading is much larger and more consistent."
"For reading and science as personal strengths, they found larger sex differences in more gender equal nations - an example of a common phenomenon known as the gender-equality paradox, and a decisive refutation of the social-constructionist view." stevestewartwilliams.com/p/t…
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The UK trend seems like an obvious Brexit hangover, but what's happened with South Korean men?
Replying to @MichaelAArouet
An ongoing ad global pattern
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I did not realize that Egypt, India, and Malaysia were hard into "late-stage feminism." Birth rates are declining everywhere.
Replying to @deumcole
You cannot have widespread late-stage feminism AND high birth rates. It's not complicated. Economic conversations are tertiary at best.
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Budget modelers going to be the last ones still paying federal income tax
Thank you so much to the Clark County Sheriff’s office for taking me out for a ride along. It’s an honor to get a chance to see what you’re up against firsthand. In DC, I’m working to provide tax relief on the first $100,000 of federal income tax for law enforcement. We need to think creatively about how to support law enforcement and first responder health and wellness. Read the full story: tinyurl.com/4ncmssvj
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All true, although this development was first reported by sociologists Suzanne Bianchi et al. 20 years ago.
New newsletter: MODERN FATHERHOOD WOULD BE UNRECOGNIZABLE TO A 1950'S DAD Compared to their Boomer parents, childcare time among Millennial dads has more than doubled. Compared to their Silent Generation grandparents, it’s nearly quadrupled. You will be hard-pressed to find any part of day-to-day modern life that has changed more in the last half-century than the way today’s parents—and fathers, in particular—spend their time. The new American dad is more present and more exhausted—but also, more satisfied with life. What's behind this half-century transformation? Today's piece combines history, economic analysis, and gorgeous charts galore from @AzizSunderji
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Nicholas H Wolfinger retweeted
Interpersonal trust may be the most necessary ingredient for a functioning democracy. Younger generations seem to lack it. 41% of the Silent Generation said that others can generally be trusted. It's 30% of Boomers and Gen X. 23% of Millennials. 13% of Gen Z.
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All causality in the social sciences is this complicated (& therefore not conducive to a clearcut political narrative). There are studies showing that the effect of marriage on prosperity is a product of both causality and selection.
Yes @MattBruenig, successful men marry more. But marriage also drives success—it's both. New @VanderbiltU study: ✔️ Marriage-seeking men work harder ✔️ Married men work harder & earn more ✔️ Declining marriage = 1/2 the drop in male work since 1970
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I don't know whether the central claim is true, but do know that the authors claimed to analyze public-use sex data from the 2024 General Social Survey when no such data exist. 1/2
A paper published today argues that women's liberation led to collapsing fertility around the world. Using US data, the authors show 58% of women's sexual relationships are with the most promiscuous 10% of men. But most of these relationships are short term and childless. 🧵.
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Also, those claims about top percentile promiscuity are based on tiny Ns. For the survey years indicated, exactly 46 men are in the top percentile of promiscuity. Yep, they each had a gajillion partners, thereby confirming that promiscuous men are promiscuous. 🤷‍♀️ 2/2
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Nicholas H Wolfinger retweeted
This is an utterly insane graph. The NIH annually awards about $40 billion in healthcare and research funding. I, personally, have been paid my salary by NIH grants. The Trump admin is devastating that ecosystem, which our scientists rely on for stability and basic success.
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