Inquisitive and harmless wyvern. Interested in human nature and patterns of history. Otherwise known as Paul Cossins.

Joined June 2014
5,920 Photos and videos
63
59
1,176
148,857
Ukraine war now longer than WW1. Mobile land wars have a high burn rate and often end in a few weeks or even days. Static wars have lower burn rates. WW2 had long static periods. Guerilla wars have the lowest burn rate and drag on for decades.
Ukraine's fighting against Russia has now raged longer than First World War, and military experts point to clear parallels between the two conflicts @VerityBowman dives into the topic below 👇 telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2…
3
7
55
4,119
Interesting to look back at the era when Arabs and Israel, India and Pakistan, fought conventional wars. Over in at most weeks. Generally both sides were running low on equipment by that time.
2
1
12
828
The mobile phase of the Korean war lasted about one year. It took three massive powers (US plus allies, China, USSR) to sustain this burn rate. Then, tired out, they settled into a slower burn rate with two years of static war.
10
532
Jun 12
One lesson of the war is that Iran's missile capabilities survived the 6-week air campaign. Tunneling works! Also used by Hamas and Hezbollah. Not sure if Taiwan also uses it, but they should. Would another 6 weeks of air strikes have destroyed the missile launchers?
⚡️NEW: Iran's Missile Cities shocked the United States and Israel during the war - FT For 40 days, U.S. and Israeli aircraft bombed the mountains surrounding the missile city of Yazd All of the munitions proved ineffective against the granite rocks of the mountains One resident of Yazd said “Iran kept launching missiles until the final moments before the ceasefire”
1
20
1,301
Whyvert retweeted
Think of this. He murders his girlfriend in 1963. He is tried, convicted and sentenced to life with a chance for parole after the jury deadlocks on the death penalty. He spends 21 years in prison and gets out in 1984. The year after his release he meets a new girl who is a drug addict and prostitute. They become roommates. He stabs her within the year and dismembers her corpse while high on crack cocaine. He admits to the murder, but claims it was in self-defense. For some odd reason, the charges are downgraded to manslaughter even though the autopsy results found 33 stab wounds. Only 12 years are added to his revoked life sentence. He applies for parole 15 times over the next 34 years, but is denied until 2019 when he is released due to his advanced age of 81 years. He quickly finds another roommate, a 68-year-old lesbian woman. Less than three years later, he murders this roommate and (again) dismembers her corpse. He pleads not guilty, claiming another female associate did it. This case finally makes it to trial in 2026 - a full four years after the murder. Think of the waste. The two unnecessary deaths, the unnecessary trials, the wasted prison space - all for a guy who should've been put to death sixty years ago after his first murder. And now we are having to waste space again in a prison for some 88-year-old serial killer psycho. It's just absurd.
ALERT: Elderly New York City transgender serial killer who rode around with his girlfriends' severed leg in his electric wheelchair will serve the rest of their life behind bars. 88-year-old Harvey Marcelin was sentenced to life without parole for the murder of his girlfriend, Susan Leyden, 68. Marcelin, who identifies as female, savagely chopped up Leydan with a reciprocating saw in his apartment in 2022. Marcelin then took Leydon's remains and dumped her torso on a street corner and rolled over to a 99 Cent store with the severed leg in his wheelchair. Marcelin has spent more than 50 years in prison, dating back to 1963, for killing 2 of his girlfriends before being let out on parole in 2019 after he promised to stay out of trouble.
86
1,068
7,199
335,497
Jun 12
New study of gender role beliefs (GRB) across the world (using mainly the World Values Survey). Over the last 30 years, people in Europe, Latin America, and Japan adopted more egalitarian gender ideas. People in Africa, Middle East, and Asia did not. A diverging world.
9
20
109
18,723
Jun 12
Link: Demographic processes constrain global growth in gender egalitarianism academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/a…
1
9
835
Jun 12
A major problem with the idea that liberal, progressive, feminist ideas will spread across the world (the arc of history) with modernization is that it ignores differential fertility. Those who have more babies will in the end prevail.
2
3
14
1,249
Jun 12
A decade ago there was a feminist theory that while the first half of "the gender revolution" (women's work) decreased fertility, the second half (men doing more housework and childcare) would increase marriage and fertility. Totally wrong. E.g. many citations:
8
18
270
7,014
Jun 12
Men do more housework and childcare than ever, but marriage and fertility is down.
3
2
54
1,327
Whyvert retweeted
Last year a Scottish girl was filmed defending herself from a hostile man. The police insisted this was "misinformation", and charged the girl. A Bulgarian man has now been found guilty of assaulting a 12 year old, with the judge finding he made "sexual remarks"
61
460
3,321
287,353
Whyvert retweeted
Smart people know how the economy works. So much so that economic knowledge is an excellent IQ test. Lin, C.-A. and T. C. Bates (2022). "Smart people know how the economy works: Cognitive ability, economic knowledge and financial literacy." Intelligence. doi.org/10.1016/j.intell.202…

We Asked AI To Simulate What Would Happen If AOC Was Forced To Learn Economics Made with @grok.
3
18
1,782
Whyvert retweeted
On his Substack, Bryan Caplan still sticks to the claim below, which he first made ten years ago. I find it to be a ridiculous exaggeration.
16
9
147
11,630
Whyvert retweeted
Philosophy is as male-coded as Football. Across 4.1M listed interests on Keeper, men are 5x likelier to list Philosophy — tied with Gaming, Politics, and Football. The women's list starts at 9x (BTS, a South Korean boy band) and goes to 26x (Acrylic Nails).
60
48
534
134,078
Whyvert retweeted
Average SAT by major at Columbia. Classics improbably edges out Math and Physics for the top spot at 1529. Sociology is on the bottom (1422), though "Ethnicity & Race Studies", "Public Health", and "Human Rights" aren't too far in front. The within-school spread is 100 points or so — around half of a standard deviation of the SAT-taker population.
102
95
973
397,747
Whyvert retweeted
A recent survey of ~1,500 professors found 22% identify themselves as "political activists" (including 40% of education faculty members). These #'s have increased since 2006 (e.g. the % "political activist" grew from 14% to 22%).
Last year, I wrote a series on what I call the "scholar-activist" career pipeline. In short, a bunch of universities carved out huge hiring programs for this type of scholar. But I didn't coin the term. I use it because that's how these scholars describe themselves 🧵
2
13
52
5,360
Jun 10
An arch covered in vegetation, on a structure built from melted-down steel from vehicles and weapons of the Global War on Terrorism. Much modern art is oriented more to words than being a real object. That vegetation in the air will soon go brown.
Today, we took the next step in our design process & unveiled the initial design concept to the world. Thanks to our Honorary Chair, President George W. Bush, for helping us mark this special milestone. Missed today's live event? Watch here: bit.ly/4exaCTo @TheBushCenter
1
1
11
1,415
Jun 10
We used to build public memorials from granite, bronze, or marble because those material last. They continue looking good indefinitely. Steel rusts and vegetation dies.
1
10
621