History, geopolitics, social issues. Peels apples with scalpels. Quiet civil conversations. Mostly somewhere in the moderate middle. Mute button enthusiast.

Joined August 2011
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Some of you may wonder about the name of this profile - Chamberlain's Ghost. Just briefly, when this war started in early 2022, I strongly expressed the view that Ukraine should seek a settlement with Russia as soon as possible. This was long before we all learned about the abortive Istanbul negotiations. For this I was pilloried by friend, family, acquaintance and stranger alike. I was labelled 'Putin's shill', 'Munich appeaser', 'Neville Chamberlain' and and many other things besides. But I was right then and I am still right now. The only solution to this war for Ukraine was and still is a negotiated peace. The only difference now from then is that now the terms will be worse, many people have died and a great deal of destruction has been done. This was, in the greater sense of matters, an avoidable war. People did not need to die and a country did not need to be wrecked. But in substance ideology preceded pragmatism.
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Let's hope.
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Each side calls the other a liar. But everyone is expected to believe that an agreement is at hand?
"The terms that Iran leaked out to the Fake News have NOTHING to do with the terms that were agreed to, in writing..." - President Donald J. Trump
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He's right. But what to do? The best way was not have had a war but there's no winding the clock back now.
Withdraw all forces from Persian gulf, lift all sanctions on Iran, give Iran $12B immediately and $12B more in 60 days, give Iran $300B in construction, let Iran control/toll Strait of Hormuz. US gets promise to discuss Iran nukes. This is not a deal. It is a US surrender.
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Chamberlain's Ghost retweeted
(1/8) [ANALYSIS] Assessing the Strategic Impact of Ukraine’s Deep-Strike Campaign Against Russian Oil Infrastructure. Ukraine’s deep-strike campaign against Russian #energy infrastructure has attracted considerable attention since 2025. Refineries, storage facilities, export terminals, and logistics hubs have repeatedly been targeted, generating significant media coverage and reinforcing the perception that Russia’s economic foundations are increasingly vulnerable. However, a closer examination of the data suggests that the campaign has had limited strategic impact on one of Russia’s primary centers of gravity: its ability to finance the war through mineral-resource exports. This analysis evaluates that claim by examining the contribution of different export categories to Russian federal revenues and modelling the impact of refinery disruptions using average data from 2022–2025 as a baseline. This leads to a straightforward conclusion: while the campaign has imposed operational costs and temporary disruptions, its direct impact on Russia’ war-financing capacity remains limited. Even under conservative assumptions, the effect is approximately 1% of federal revenues after accounting for crude-oil substitution. Furthermore, rising oil prices in 2026 are likely to more than offset these losses. This raises an important question: if the campaign is not materially impairing Russia’s ability to finance the war, what possible purpose does it serve? The answer appears to lie primarily in the political and operational domains rather than the economic one. Read on Substack: open.substack.com/pub/delwin… #Oil #UkraineRussiaWar #Strategy
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⬇️ I treat it with caution for now, but nonetheless.
According to reports from Iran, the proposed deal may be even more scandalous than what was reported last night. Iran’s Mehr News Agency, citing a source close to the Iranian negotiating team, claims the draft Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between the United States and Iran includes: • An immediate and permanent ceasefire on all fronts, including Lebanon • A U.S. commitment not to interfere in Iran’s internal affairs • Removal of the naval blockade within 30 days • Withdrawal of U.S. forces from areas near Iran • Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days under Iranian arrangements • Suspension of sanctions on Iran’s oil and petrochemical exports • Full access to Iran’s financial assets • 60 days of negotiations toward a final nuclear agreement • Release of $24 billion in frozen Iranian funds, with half of the amount released before talks even begin • Iran’s missile program and support for proxy groups would not be part of the negotiations • The final agreement would be endorsed by the UN Security Council • The draft is still awaiting review and approval by Iranian authorities If accurate, this would amount to massive upfront concessions to Tehran in exchange for promises and future negotiations.
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As always, a very interesting view by Kevin.
Replying to @RSA_Observer
This Christian disorientation stems from the divine ambiguity embedded in their trinity. Emphasizing Jesus Christ as god gives the narrative of Jews as Christ-killers real traction, especially in the Gospel of John. Emphasizing Yahweh as the primary god makes the idea of the Jews as the chosen people and god's favourites a coherent position. Yahweh migrated from the south as an Israelite god of war, one of many in the Canaanite pantheon. At the time, El was the leading, fatherly god, the patriarch of the Divine Council. Eventually, El gave his son Yahweh dominion over the Israelites as their war god. As the Israelites faced strife and defeat, they had to inflate Yahweh's power. Over the years and battles, he became increasingly conflated with El. Yahweh's amalgamation with El included taking El's wife Asherah in a move thick with Oedipal tensions. The question then becomes: if the tribal god of Israel was promoted to the title of universal god, did he maintain a dual role as the war god of Israel? The Dispensationalists answer yes, and their theological argument follows from this premise. The unresolved conflation of the Israelite tribal war god with the universal creator means that both emphases remain live options within Christian theology. The antisemite who calls Jews Christ-killers and the philo-Semitic Dispensationalist draw from the same unresolved god. Those who identify more with the universalist El reject Jewish particularist privilege, while partisans of the youthful Yahweh warrior god embrace it and mirror Mike Huckabee's rhetoric. Now we are seeing a geopolitical echo of this ancient dynamic in how Israeli interests are increasingly conflated with those of the United States — an example of ancient mythic structures re-emerging in the present.
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The evangelical Christian right's unalloyed and fervent belief that God demands they support Israel is just as deranged as the lunatics who believe that Jews should be persecuted "because they crucified Christ". They are two sides of the same coin of complete insanity.
WATCH: U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee says Israel is "successful" not because of military, economic, or political factors, but because God directly favors and protects it.
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Reuters reporting suggests that a memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran is close and that the outstanding issue is how much the US will release to Iran upon signing of the MoU. Interestingly, the reporting also claims that the entire nuclear issue will be deferred to the 60 day discussions. I guess I need not point out that especially with the midterms approaching, any likelihood of the US re-engaging militarily with Iran after the 60 days is probably very low if not nil and that there is a very real prospect that in the end the entire nuclear issue will remain unresolved. Not that the Israelis will not try to force the issue in some way or another, including by possibly restarting the conflict. Links below. reuters.com/world/middle-eas… reuters.com/business/finance…
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I wonder if this ⬇️ has anything to do with Trump now suddenly reversing direction again and calling off any further strikes on Iran?
This is a significant operational achievement for Iran. The AR-327 radar at Bahrain’s highest point is a very important piece of the regional missile defense and battlefield awareness architecture. What you need to realize to see the significance of this hit is this: Radars are the easiest thing to target bc they’re fixed addresses that emit such powerful electromagnetic signals. This makes very vulnerable. And because they are so operationally important, they have to be very strongly defended by interceptor systems. There is almost certainly a multi-layer ballistic missile defense-in-depth to defend this particular radar. Now if you recall, the Iranians managed to hit at least 14 US radars across the region, include four AN/TPY-2 (THAAD) and at least one AN/FPS-132. This happened in the first two days of the war when the Iranians fired off hundreds of missiles. In that case, they were able to defeat the interceptors and hit the best-defended hard-kill targets like radars because of the size of the salvos. Now they’ve bagged a big radar kill. The math shows that, even with a CEP of 5m, Iran would’ve needed something like a salvo of 12 missiles. So the possibilities are: (1) they did fire a dozen missiles at this radar, (2) they fired a hypersonic missile with terminal maneuvering that could not be intercepted, (3) the interceptor inventories are running so low that US policy has shifted from firing 10 interceptors at each inbound missile to firing far fewer; maybe as few as just one or two. Regardless of which of these hypotheses is correct, this is a very serious setback for the US. It may explain why the Iranians did not attack high value targets like warships or try hard to get birds on the apron (my Ben Gurion nightmare). They went after the eyes. There may have been more hits. So the kinetic aspect of this war of position is a counter-radar war, a two-sided one. Maybe this is why Trump taco’d on his latest threat. He was probably told by the military that had he kept going, the US would get blinded before Iran does.
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Looks like July 4th, but it's Tehran. There will be a response. Let's see what it is, but I think it's going to be very severe.
🚨BREAKING: Over 200 Missiles Target Tehran as US Launches All-Out Attack Reports indicate a major strike involving over 200 missiles hitting Tehran. Intelligence sources say the U.S. has vowed to completely destroy Iranian bases in an all-out assault. President Trump is not holding back. The regime’s provocations have triggered a full response.
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Okay, well here it is again. It seems to be a matter of 'If at first you don't succeed, try and try again.' But hopefully Trump also understands that if he does not now succeed in making the Iranians 'cry uncle', that any remaining small prospect of any sort of acceptable deal is stone dead. And equally, the result will be an even worse strategic position for the US and Israel. So it's all or nothing now.
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Midterms
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Attacking civilian water infrastructure is both criminal and stupid.
The U.S. attacked two water reservoirs in Iran, depriving tens of thousands of people of drinking water
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Ukrainians wish for a - IMO fanciful - "European shield" to protect them against Russia. ⬇️ "60% of Ukrainians are ready to support a ceasefire along the current front line [but only] if European troops guarantee the country's security, while 33% are against it, according to a KIIS survey. Respondents were offered four scenarios for ending hostilities. In all cases, it was assumed that a ceasefire would be implemented along the current front line without officially recognizing Russia's territorial acquisitions. ▫️Scenario #1 - "No security guarantees". Hostilities cease, but Ukraine receives neither security guarantees nor increased supplies of money and weapons. Supported by 31% of respondents, rejected by 61%. ▫️Scenario #2 - "Symbolic presence of European troops". European troops are deployed in Ukraine, but far from the front line and will not participate in battles if Russia attacks again. Supported by 41%, rejected by 49%. ▫️Scenario #3 - "Our own forces Allied resources". Allies provide Ukraine with increased support in terms of money and weapons. Supported by 53%, rejected by 37%. ▫️Scenario #4 - "European shield". European troops are deployed near the front line and will participate in battles if Russia attacks again. Supported by 60%, rejected by 33%." -Resident
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Dubowitz should go read the reactions of the Iranians when they discovered that the US and Israel planned to foist Ahmadinejad on them. The only people who think that the US or Israel are interested in Iranian democracy are the fools who believe the rubbish that people like Dubowitz peddle.
Will President Trump finally recognize that there is no acceptable deal to be had with a jihadist theocracy committed to mass martyrdom and mass destruction? He needs to—and soon. The alternative is clear: maximum support for the millions of Iranians who want to bring down the regime and are already back on the streets. Their numbers will grow. Trump should stand with them.
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Europe: "We're collectively rearming to prepare for war with Russia." Also Europe. ⬇️
Europe's most ambitious €100B sixth-generation fighter program just officially imploded. Macron and Merz have finally conceded what analysts have known for years: Dassault and Airbus were never going to agree. What killed the Future Combat Air System? Well, it wasn't a lack of engineering talent. It was a clash of egos... national egos and industrial intellectual property control, to be exact. Dassault absolutely refused to compromise on the lead development role, while Airbus fought fiercely for an equal technology transfer split. 1/2
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There's a lot going around by way of analysis of the US-Iran-Israel conflict. But there's (only) one really important point. For the first time Iran has struck Israel not in defence of itself but in aid of its proxies; it has drawn its own red lines. The Iranian state is not what it was before the war and nothing in the Middle East will again be the same as it previously was.
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"The Russian budget has seen its first significant benefit from rising oil prices due to the war in Iran. The Ministry of Finance reported today that state oil and gas revenues in May amounted to 679 billion rubles, 175 billion more than planned." - Faridaily, 03 June
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Why does everything have to become a damned race issue? Frankly I thought she conducted the interview in a shockingly bad manner. She kept on interrupting him and talking across him. She wasn't interviewing him so much as trying to argue with him. And like him, love him or hate him, the man is still the POTUS and deserves the minimum courtesy of trying to finish his point. That he got up and walked out hardly surprises me. The rain didn't help either. And yeah, it's Trump and Trump's version of reality. We all know the disconnect. But still. She was downright rude at points.
This interview hurt my soul. The mistreatment of black women and journalists by this President is down right embarrassing and unacceptable. Kristin Welker is neither crooked or stupid. She is a history making journalist who has earned the right to be respected. The President should apologize immediately.
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