A man blinded by a flag about to step off into emptiness might be Banksy's best work ever.

Evan Greenberg didn’t hold back in Chubb’s $CB Q1 call. While the numbers were stellar, his warnings on "dumb" market behavior are a must-read for any $FFH.TO holder. 1/ The Headline Strength Chubb delivered core operating income of $2.7 billion. The numbers that matter: an 84% combined ratio and 21.5% growth in tangible book value. Greenberg noted, "Our results speak to the strength and resilience of our company in a period of elevated uncertainty".  2/ The "Dumb" Property Market Property pricing in shared and layered markets is softening at a pace Greenberg described as "frankly, I'll only describe as dumb".  • The Math: "Pricing overall is off 25% in the quarter, heading to 30%".  • The Reality: Loss costs are moving at 4% to 5%.  • The Action: Chubb purposely shrank this book, noting that market pricing for business they passed on was down 30% to 40%.  3/ Structural Decay: MGAs & Capital This isn't just a cycle; it's a structural issue with how capital is deployed. Greenberg flagged that capital is showing up in "volume-based incentive system, MGAs, the majority of them". He warned, "the loser at the end of the day is the ultimate risk taker, who puts up the capital".  4/ AI: "The Arms Race is On" Connecting to the broader tech shift, Greenberg highlighted how AI (specifically models like Anthropic’s Mythos) changes the cyber landscape.  • Vulnerability: "The threshold for vulnerability has been lowered" because AI can read code and find flaws faster than suppliers can patch them.  • Defense: "It is about hygiene and services to monitor... the arms race is on".  5/ Geopolitics & Energy Shortages For those tracking industrial supply chains, Greenberg’s macro view was sobering. He noted that war in the Middle East adds pressure to "global supply chains and financial valuations... and a growing energy shortage to name a few". He was blunt on the impact: "It isn’t going to be 0. That’s for sure".  6/ The Bifurcation: Casualty remains Firm Unlike property, casualty is rational. Pricing was up 9.6%, with rates up 8.4%. Greenberg observed, "the cohorts that need price, you’re getting price in excess of loss cost". He also noted a "terribly illogical" gap where "Admitted [market], much, much more discipline. E&S less so".  7/ Investment Tailwinds The "higher for longer" environment is a massive win. • Portfolio Yield: 5.1%.  • New Money Rate: 5.5% as of March 31.  • Cash Flow: Record adjusted operating cash flow of $3.8 billion.  8/ Read-through for Fairfax ($FFH.TO) • Discipline over Volume: Expect Brit and Allied World to show shrinking premiums in large-account property. As Greenberg says, "inadequate pricing in property tends to reveal itself pretty quickly".  • Casualty Strength: $FFH’s casualty-heavy units (C&F, Allied) should still see rate-on-rate strength. • Reserving: Chubb saw $21M in unfavorable long-tail development. It’s a rounding error for them, but it’s the metric to watch across the industry as social inflation persists.  Bottom Line: In a "dumb" market, the best underwriters are defined by what they don't write. Chubb is leaning into its "operating discipline" to provide resilience. I expect the Fairfax team to be reading from the same playbook this quarter.

A parasite that has been eating people for 3,500 years is about to be wiped off the planet. It infected 3.5 million people in 1986. Last year, it infected 10. And I have not seen it make a single front page. It is called Guinea worm. You drink contaminated water from a pond in a poor village. A year later, a worm up to three feet long starts coming out of your leg through a burning blister. There is no pill that stops it and no surgery that works. You wrap the worm around a stick and pull it out slowly, over days or weeks, inch by inch. If you rush, the worm breaks inside you and causes a fresh infection. Guinea worm is ancient. Preserved worms have been pulled out of Egyptian mummies from around 1000 BCE. The Ebers Papyrus, an Egyptian medical scroll from 1550 BCE, describes pulling the worm out with a stick. For three and a half thousand years, that was the best humans could do. Then in 1986, public health workers decided to kill the parasite off. They had no vaccine and no drug. What they had was cheap cloth water filters and a small army of volunteers willing to walk from village to village for decades. The plan was simple. Give everyone who drinks from a pond a cloth filter to strain out the tiny water fleas that spread the parasite. Then send volunteers walking house to house, year after year, teaching people how to use the filters and keeping anyone with an emerging worm out of the water. It worked. From 3.5 million cases a year to 10. Four were in Chad, four in Ethiopia, two in South Sudan. The other four countries where the worm used to be common, Angola, Cameroon, the Central African Republic, and Mali, had zero human cases for the second year in a row. The World Health Organization has already certified 200 countries as Guinea worm free. Six are left. The last hurdle is dogs. Cameroon had 445 infected animals last year and Chad had 147, so a lot of the remaining work is on animals, not humans. Strays get leashed, and crews treat ponds to kill any remaining worms. The campaign keeps watching until the number hits zero. When Guinea worm hits zero, it becomes the second human disease ever erased from the planet. The first was smallpox. It will also be the first parasite humans have ever wiped out, and the first disease ever ended without a single dose of medicine. Volunteers walked village to village with cloth filters for 40 years. Now a plague from the age of the pharaohs is about to be gone.

Prem Watsa called Henry Singleton “the Michael Jordan of buybacks.” Then he bought back over 1M of his own shares in 2025. $1.6 billion worth. 5 things making it hard for me to not buy $FFH: (1) The float is bigger than the company. 39B of insurance float on a Market cap: of 35B. Customers pay Fairfax to hold their money. (2) The earnings floor nobody talks about. 50B in bonds, mostly government, earning 5%. That’s 2.5B a year that shows up no matter what. (3) The buyback is accelerating. Over 1M shares retired in 2025. 131K more in the first six weeks of 2026. He just sold half of Poseidon for 1.9B. That’s more cash coming for buybacks. Every share he retires makes your slice of the pie bigger. (4) The bet that tells you everything. In 2020 the stock was C$400. Prem was out of cash. So he used derivatives to make a C$850M bet on his own stock at C$481. The world thought Fairfax was cooked . That bet is now up C$3.2B. Every buyback makes it worth more. It compounds on itself. (5) My floor math. Bonds give me 4%. Buybacks give me another 4%. That’s 8% a year doing nothing. But that 8% assumes the entire insurance business earns zero. It won’t. Real earning power is 5B on a 35B company. That’s 14%. The business grew book 20% last year. It’s trading at 1.2x real book. This is not the 2010 Fairfax that tested everyone’s patience. This is a monster hiding in plain sight.

In his latest annual letter, @ChrisBloomstran shared his new intrinsic value estimate for Berkshire Hathaway. Class A: $855,396 Class B: $570 This would put Berkshire's total intrinsic value (by market cap) at $1.23 trillion.

Agree, if this was just KW, it could be perceived as a cyclical bet. But layered with WEF, Eurobank, Atlas, Fairfax India, Recipe etc., Fairfax $FFH.TO is building a network of capital allocation platforms, effectively becoming an allocator of allocators. What really jumped out on the CC was the tone. The focus wasn’t on stretching for yield, it was on financial strength, earning the cost of capital, and the long-term benefits of capability. That reinforces the idea that this is architecture, not opportunism. If we are reading it right, that structure reduces single-point failure risk and compresses the left tail. Compounding doesn’t fail from volatility; it fails from permanent impairment. Protect the downside, preserve liquidity, and you’re positioned to deploy when dislocations appear. Fairfax is in the box here. So many levers. It never ceases to amaze me how active, yet disciplined, their capital allocation pace is even in relatively benign times 👍

How much did Fairfax earn in 2025? Yes, it was a record year. Accounting dil EPS = $214/sh. What matters for investors, economic earnings, were a stellar ~$269/sh ($214 $55). Much better. $FFH.TO Excess of FV over CV increased $1.5B, or $69/sh pre-tax or $55/sh after-tax.

Heartbreaking article people should read. theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/0…

“Look at market fluctuations as your friend rather than your enemy; profit from folly rather than participate in it.” — Warren Buffett. What has changed in Fairfax’s business in the past 24 hours? Nothing. (Like $BRK, most analysts struggle to understand $FFH.TO business model.)

Buffett, in final interview as CEO, says Berkshire has the best odds of any company for lasting a century cnb.cx/4sgXC9n

My year-in-review post on Fairfax should be out in the next couple of days. As a tease, below is the introduction. Stock is up 500% in 5 yrs (C$). For those who have not been paying attention, this is what a compounding machine looks like. $FFH.TO $BRK $MKL

Asheef Lalani (@BrownMarubozu) joined @KYRRadio this week. He says when premiums keep growing, insurance float isn’t debt—it’s free, permanent capital.

Since many were moved by the article about Charlie Munger’s final weeks, myself included, I think it’s worth sharing a little-known anecdote about his qualities as an investor, shared by @MohnishPabrai: Mohnish had spent weeks studying $CACC, a company offering high-interest car loans to high-risk borrowers. At dinner, he gave Charlie a five-minute pitch. Charlie listened, then simply said: “We don’t want to own that kind of business.” For Charlie, the issue was clear: the business wasn’t "Win-Win-Win". A company needs to benefit its stakeholders, its customers, its owners, and the broader ecosystem, or it’s not worth pursuing. In this case, $CACC's business model thrived when customers failed: repossessions were common, and profits came from high interest on loans to people who couldn’t afford them. Charlie’s mental model was simple: long-term value is easier to sustain when all stakeholders are aligned in keeping the value intact. If that alignment breaks, sustainability becomes a struggle. This mental filter saved Mohnish weeks of work, as he reflected later. Charlie, as Warren Buffett once said, had 'the best 30-second mind in the world.' He could instantly spot the flaw. This is just one example of his brilliance. While the article about his passing was deeply moving, I prefer to remember Charlie as the relentless learner who, through sheer intellectual rigor and humility, became the legend we remember him as today.

A #CosmicVision mission, the @ESA_LISAmission will be first gravitational wave detector in space. LISA will study these ripples in the fabric of space-time emitted during the most powerful events in the Universe, such as pairs of black holes coming together and merging. 1/ #CM25

$FFH.TO 2nd qrt earnings report beat again. $61.61 in per share earnings, with book value up $99 for the year so far and is now $1,158 per share.

Charlie Munger: "What really works in life is win-win [deals]. That requires some sensitivity to the other fellow's way of thinking and his needs. Win-win is the only formula that really will work on and on and on." "Costco is into win-win — and that's what really works."

On Sunday I traveled to the middle of the desert to capture this: The ISS against our sun. What I didn't expect: the sun producing a magnificent flare at the same time A once-in-a-lifetime shot I'm thrilled to share with you. See the uncropped shot or get the print in the reply

Every machine in a Hospital that diagnoses your body without cutting you open is based on a principle of Physics, discovered by a Physicist who had no interest in Medicine. If you think the world doesn’t need Basic Science, or that somehow Science has failed you, think again.

I wrote a new piece on how much progress has been made in treating childhood leukemia. The answer is: quite a lot! Before the 1970s, fewer than 10% of children diagnosed survived 5 years after diagnosis. Now most are cured and around 85% survive that long.

Arguably the best resource on any company ever created before it started a historic run. $FFH.TO