why smart people believe stupid things:

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷Scoop: CIA Director Ratcliffe told President Trump and other officials that intelligence gathered by the U.S. raised serious doubts about Iran's willingness to make the nuclear concessions the U.S. is seeking in any final deal. My story on @axios axios.com/2026/06/15/us-iran…

.@VP on the Memorandum of Understanding with Iran: "All of these things come along with benefits if Iran delivers, and nothing if Iran doesn't deliver... Most importantly, they're going to have a verifiable commitment to not building a nuclear weapon."

Trump 1.0 built an Iran Sanctions Wall that blocked Rob Malley and team Biden from reentering the fatally flawed JCPOA. Trump 2.0 should remember: economic normalization and IRGC-backed terrorism are incompatible. As long as the regime funds and arms terrorists, there is no path to serious sanctions relief or investment.

The narrative about a supposed $300 billion “Iran investment fund” is being deliberately distorted by grifters to generate clicks and controversy. In reality, this is not an unconditional handout. It is a conditional incentive or, in simpler terms, a “carrot.” Under this approach, Iran would first have to fully dismantle its nuclear program, completely end its support for terrorist groups, and carry out meaningful internal reforms. Only then would the United States help organize a group of investors to pursue commercially attractive opportunities in Iran. The aim would be to create deep economic ties and mutual interdependence that make future conflict far more costly for all sides and demonstrate that choosing peace delivers greater long-term benefits than continuing to back terrorism. The only people who could possibly oppose this plan are those who are either financially benefiting from prolonged conflict or are individuals of severely low intelligence… or perhaps both.

It seems the current MOU is quite similar to what the US rejected in Pakistan. The question is why Trump rejected the interim deal back then. One possibility is that the Trump administration thought the Iranian regime would crumble in a few weeks under the economic blockade. A more likely possibility is that Trump delayed it as much as possible to ensure the end of the second phase of discussions falls after the midterm election. This can be achieved with only one extension of the 60-day period, so if the nuclear talks fail, Democrats won’t use it as ammunition against Republicans.

نه اسرائیل نابود شد، نه آمریکا شکست خورد، نه آن قدیمی را خاک کردند و نه جدیدشان را رونمایی! چهل و هفت سال با شعارهای پوشالی، کمر به نابودی ایران و ایرانی بستند و دست آخر با حقارت تمام، به تفاهم‌نامه‌ای کشانده شدند که بند بندش، آرمان‌ها و ایدئولوژی و تمدن وهم آلودشان را خاکستر می‌کند! شما ماندید و همین آوارگان و آویزان‌های خیابانی‌تان! شما ماه‌هاست مرده‌اید فقط دفنتان نکرده‌ایم!

Those on X attacking Trump's MOU with Iran as some sort of "surrender" have NO IDEA what they are talking about and haven't spent 5 minutes doing their own research. This is an interim step to re-open the Strait. All the US has "given up" is lifting the blockade. The purpose of the blockade was to open the Strait. Mission accomplished.

This is desperation messaging aimed at calming a radicalized base. Tehran is spinning an MOU as if it were a final deal. Baghaei claims it forces the US to lift all primary & secondary sanctions (statutory sanctions require either renewable presidential waivers or actual congressional repeal) plus UN/IAEA restrictions, but that’s the endpoint of a full agreement, not what a memorandum delivers.

VP JD VANCE: “I’d caution Lindsay Graham and anybody else not to believe the hardliner propaganda in Iran”

JD Vance on Iran: We are extending an open hand to Iran. If they want to change their relationship with us, we will change our relationship with Iran. That's the offer.

The "deal" is a ceasefire extension of another 60 days with Iran agreeing for the first time to not weaponize the Strait of Hormuz and with U.S. sanctions in place against both IRGC and China. There are different interpretations of this, but "capitulation" or "end of the war" aren’t accurate ones.

Refuel energy markets. Rest and rearm the military. Develop a plan to support Iranians to cripple the regime. Enforce sanctions with relentless pressure. Don’t get played at the negotiating table. Test Tehran early. Give little. Demand results. Walk away fast. Hit harder.

Just the beginning of a legendary night at the People’s House. 📸🇺🇸

Some friendly thoughts among the celebrations. I've a whole lot of questions during the next 60-days of negotiation on a deal. This is the MOU, the precise language of which still has not been released to the public. Just as I have questions about why Phase II of the deal with Hamas, which was supposed to disarm Hamas, has not. Instead, Hamas has rearmed and is brutalizing the Palestinians in Gaza in horrific ways and consolidating power. We cannot ignore that. Reagan was right. Trust but verify. Except with the Iranian regime and its terror proxies, if you understand their ideology, it's never trust. Nobody has yet to explain how this or any deal can possibly work, over time, not only given 47-years of experience with this enemy but its theocratic ideology. An MOU or final deal simply cannot and will not change it. If people disagree explain why. Sorry. How many more people have to die to prove the point? This isn't about support or opposition to the administration, which is the only administration that brought us to the precipice of victory; this is about all of us openly discussing it and trying to draw a rational conclusion. And I cringe when Israel's PM is berated for standing up for his country. The leftwing press here and overseas lap it up. When Hezbollah and Iran, together or separately, fire missiles or commit other acts of violence against Israel, they will undoubtedly be hit hard in response. And should be. Just as we would not tolerate any kind of violent military act against our country. Soft peddling violations of any deal and Israel's sovereignty will not fly. No matter who the president is. But I suggest, as I've repeatedly said, that the nature of the enemy will not change, making it impossible to fit into a Western diplomatic construct that sticks over time. No such magic language exists. Again, if people disagree, explain why. As I also said months ago, so much of this reminds me of how North Korea ultimately acquired nuclear missiles. But this is even worse. The Iranian regime and its proxies have already killed and maimed thousands of our fellow countrymen.

1/6 An American @POTUS just told Israel to lower its sword. @realDonaldTrump on his 80th birthday. With the enemy cornered. Half the Jewish world feels betrayed today. I don't. And if you feel abandoned, confused, even gutted — hear me first: you're not naïve. You're paying attention. I feel it too. I'm just not going to stop there. Let me tell you what history is going to say about this moment.

My statement on today's agreement between the United States and Iran.

An agreement to completely have the Strait of Hormuz "open" while other matters are "discussed" with Iran for the next 60 days, just signals to me that U.S. administration is setting the stage for an intervention in Cuba and/or stabilizing things especially for the Europeans, South Koreans, Japanese, and Gulf countries on energy markets.

The US-Iran conflict hasn’t been resolved. A hot war has potentially been paused, but a very Cold War continues. The core sources of tension (nukes, missiles, proxies, and even Hormuz) have yet to be negotiated. This isn’t the birth of a new Middle East.