🌩️ CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK — Wed 10 June 🟡Low-end thunder risk focused on East Anglia & SE England; broader Marginal risk across central Britain & Scotland. ☔ Best CAPE (400–700 J/kg) plumes over the east, where a convergence zone (UKV) triggers storms through the afternoon. Stronger deep-layer shear in the south lets cells organise better than yesterday. ⚠️ Main threats: ⚡ Frequent lightning in stronger cells 🧊 Small hail 🌬️ Gusty, locally squally winds 🌧️ Torrential downpours, surface-water flooding risk ⚙️ Parameters: MUCAPE 400–700 J/kg (E Anglia/SE), 850–500 lapse ~28–30°C, DLS 30–50 kn (south), LLS modest, low-level convergence focus over the east. 📍 Focus: East Anglia/Lincs → SE England, scattered Midlands & central Scotland. Peak 13–18 BST.

There’s a growing likelihood of a heatwave across much of Europe next week where temperatures could exceed >40°C. In terms of the UK, it’s less clear cut on whether we’ll be tapping into the hotter air to our south. Chart: @GJauseau

Stunning drone video shows a tornado in Ipava, Illinois, barreling straight into solar panels and sending them flying.

A mostly fine and warm day developing for most in the UK today with the exception of Scotland where showers will whip through on a brisk breeze, these may push into Northern England at times. Temperatures will range from 12c in the far North, to 22c in the South.

For next Friday afternoon and evening, there are early signs of a potentially active thunderstorm setup across parts of the UK. CAPE values are currently forecast to range between 1,000–2,500 J/kg, particularly across eastern areas. These values would be supportive of strong to severe thunderstorms, although additional ingredients will be needed before any significant severe weather risk can be established. One of the main uncertainties is the cap. Across southern areas, model guidance suggests a fairly strong cap which could suppress thunderstorm development unless it can be broken. Further north, particularly around the East Midlands, the cap appears weaker, increasing the likelihood of convective initiation. The exact positioning remains uncertain and will likely change over the coming days. Lapse rates within the 850–500 hPa layer are forecast to be relatively steep, supporting stronger updrafts and more vigorous thunderstorm growth. Combined with moderate to high PWAT values, any storms that do develop could be capable of producing torrential rainfall. Overall, there is growing model support for a plume-type thunderstorm setup next Friday, with the potential for thunderstorms to become fairly widespread. However, the strength and placement of the cap remains a key limiting factor. Confidence remains low given the lead time, but the signal for a notable thunderstorm event is beginning to emerge. It's important to stress that this could still change significantly over the coming days, and the signal could easily fade away. However, based on the current UKV convective parameters, the ingredients are there to at least warrant close monitoring, with trends over the coming days likely to determine whether this develops into a more notable setup.

A rainfall radar in June that’s more akin to Winter than summer. What a wet, horrible and soggy day

Today’s verification(Technically yesterday now 🤣): Better late than never due to an impromptu trip to watch Disclosure Day. Model largely performed well again with the bulk of the activity in East England

Sunny sights in between the stormy skies

Quite an active storm is moving through Grantham currently. Plenty of lightning with this one

Hail, Heavy rain and thunder from this cell moving across my house in Dunstable atm.

Activity has already started! Several showers are already turning thundery across the East.

Verification: The Models increase in the low risk area this morning largely justified and overall verified well. Pleased with the Hour-by-Hour hit rate as storms largely fired in the low risk zones. Tomorrow the highest risk area will likely be East Anglia again, but more on that shortly.

FastNet, a Machine Learning Weather Prediction (MLWP) model developed with @turinginst combines machine learning with physics-based modelling. It is unlocking new forecasting capability, improving prediction of challenging features like daily temperature cycles and enabling earlier insight for heatwave decisions.

Amazing photo of Mammatus!!

June in Aberdeenshire Scotland..... Hail, Thunder, Huge amounts of hail and lightning. wish i was there @Petagna @UKStormUpdates @BBCScotland @TorCastAi @Arab_Storms @DundeeSat