🚨AMAZING: You need to hear this grandmother. Her speech couldn’t be more real it’s coming straight from the heart, not from carefully crafted notes. “Thank God for this President.” “His people came to my house to interview me about the murder of my grandson. It felt like nobody cared. I’ve been out here advocating after a murder.” “We marched and rallied, and nobody heard me. Democrats were mad at me, until this Republican sent his people to interview me in my home. Have you ever heard of such a thing? Then they invited me twice before Congress to testify for the beautiful bill that’s going to change crime in the district.” “I love him. I don’t want to hear anything about that racist stuff. And don’t look at me on the news hating on me because I’m standing up for somebody who deserves to be stood up for. Get off the man’s back and let him do his job. He’s doing the right thing, so back up off of him.”

🚨 BREAKING: This Venezuelan man is going viral for explaining to everyone why Maduro NEEDED to be toppled The Democrats are clueless. “Venezuela has already been invaded.” 🔥🇺🇸 He knows his country. The people are ecstatic.

Buffett didn't retire. He spent two years demolishing and rebuilding Berkshire from scratch. Wall Street completely missed it: 74% of Apple. Sold. 677 million shares. Liquidated. $130 billion. Converted to T-bills. Tomorrow Greg Abel inherits: $381.7 billion cash fortress (That's 5% of ALL U.S. Treasury bills) $15 billion per year in risk-free income (More than BNSF Railway earns) Zero concentration risk (The hardest decision already made for him) But here's what nobody is talking about: The Japanese carry trade. Buffett borrowed ¥1.3 TRILLION at 1.6%. Bought $31 billion in trading houses yielding 4% . Currency-hedged. Self-funding. Net profit: $677 million per year. For doing absolutely nothing. This is the most sophisticated financial engineering of his 60-year career. Then on December 8th, the real signal dropped. Todd Combs left for JPMorgan. 23 days before the handover. After 15 years. The stock-picking era at Berkshire is over. What Abel actually inherits: An operating company, not an investment fund. A $50B deployment capacity per opportunity. A free call option on market collapse. A Japanese income machine running on autopilot. Sum-of-parts: $1.05-1.15 trillion intrinsic. Market cap: $1.08 trillion. Fair value with embedded optionality. PREDICTION: By February 2026, the 10-K will confirm: Japanese dividends exceeded $800M. No Apple rebuy occurred. Abel's first acquisition target is identified. The Oracle didn't step down. He rebuilt the entire machine for a world without him. And handed his successor the most deliberately engineered corporate handover in history. The fortress is complete. Tomorrow we find out if it holds. Read the full deep dive story about Oracle of Omaha here! - open.substack.com/pub/shanak…

Nice take .... agree with most of it. I want a crash scenario with a massive geopolitical risk (China/Taiwan with a splash of Russia). Value, Defensive, Beaten up dogs will lead the way. Fed will cut 150-200 bps but housing will get smacked along w/the market. SPX -5% yr after being down 10-15%, NDX -10%. Metals will be up 5-10%. Oil will be the best sector followed by Defense and Healthcare. Quantum who -75%. AI flush .. generational buys.

Sorry I couldn't get it to be horizontal but sure reminds me of $PLTR before it went parabolic ... let's go $PATH

Why I Think Michael Burry Is Shutting Down Scion Now Let’s put a few things together…Burry’s liquidation letter, his depreciation thread on the hyperscalers, and his “me then, me now” Big Short meme and he’s basically spelling out one story. He thinks we’re in an earnings inflated, AI driven bubble that a value investor can’t sit inside without eventually getting crushed. In the letter he says it plainly “My estimation of value in securities is not now, and has not been for some time, in sync with the markets.” That’s not a I’m tired of running money line. That’s a man saying, I can’t reconcile what I see in the numbers with the prices the market is willing to pay. When someone like Burry reaches that point, the logical move isn’t to keep collecting fees and hope it mean reverts. It’s to get out of the structure that forces you to play the game at all. Then you look at his post on depreciation. He’s saying the biggest beneficiaries of the AI boom that includes META, GOOG, ORCL, MSFT, AMZN of juicing earnings by quietly stretching the useful life of servers and GPU rigs that are really on a 2–3 year technology cycle. Extend the life in the accounting model, and you cut today’s depreciation expense. Cut depreciation, and EPS looks 20–30% higher than it would under a stricter assumption. He’s saying that the market is paying premium multiples on numbers that are, in his view, structurally overstated. Put that together with the “me then, me now… it worked out, it will work out” post, and he’s clearly casting himself as the same guy who sat in front of a wall of subprime prospectuses in 2005. Back then, he saw engineered AAA paper built on bad collateral. Now he sees trillion dollar market caps built on AI capex and accounting choices he thinks will blow up 2026–2028 as the depreciation math reverses. SO WHY SHUT DOWN SCION NOW? MY HIGHEST PROBABILITY READ IS THIS He expects a major repricing in the very stocks that dominate the indices and he doesn’t want to live through the last, craziest stretch of the bubble with other people’s money tied to his name. If he’s right about the under depreciation, then over the next few years earnings growth for the hyperscalers should slow sharply or even go negative just as the AI narrative cools and the cycle matures. When that happens, multiples compress, passive flows that are overweight those names work in reverse, and the broad market takes a hit because the “Magnificent Few” are the market. From his perspective, that looks less like a normal correction and more like the equity version of the housing unwind: a long stretch of fake comfort, then a sharp break when the math can’t be hidden anymore. Closing the fund accomplishes a few things at once. It lets him step aside before that break, so he’s not fighting client redemptions or daily benchmarking while he’s trying to hold deeply contrarian positions. It frees him to short or sit in cash on his own terms, without regulators and LPs looking over his shoulder. And it sends a signal: if valuations are this disconnected from what he thinks the true earnings power is, the most honest thing he can do as a fiduciary is hand back the money and say, I don’t want you in this. So, in my view, he’s not walking away because he’s done with markets. He’s stepping off the stage because he thinks the show has turned into something he’s seen before: a late cycle mania, powered by flattering models and aggressive accounting, that ends with a long, grinding reset in stock prices especially at the top of the index. @michaeljburry

From My Perspective: The Fed Just Revealed Its Outlook Without Saying It Here’s what I believe is actually happening and why Miran’s comments make it obvious once you connect the dots. When you listen to Miran closely, it’s pretty clear to me the Fed didn’t stop QT because they suddenly turned dovish. They stopped because the system was getting close to something breaking. Bank reserves were running low, the RRP was basically drained, and funding markets were giving off those little warning signals that usually show up before something bigger snaps. I think they paused QT because the plumbing was getting fragile not because they wanted to ease. But here’s the part that stands out: instead of letting that move loosen financial conditions, they changed the composition of the balance sheet so conditions stay tight where they want them tight. They’re letting mortgages run off and refusing to buy new MBS, and they’re rolling the cash into T-bills. To me, that says they want reserves to stabilize (so we don’t repeat 2019), but they also want mortgage spreads wide and long term yields firm. They want the banking system steady, not the whole financial system running hot. And this is where I think their economic outlook shows through. Everything they’re doing implies they expect growth to slow. Not crash…but slow. Normally, that slowdown would drag long term yields lower and ease financial conditions across the board. But the Fed does not want that right now, because it would unlock a housing bounce, narrow credit spreads, and pour fuel on risk assets at exactly the wrong moment. So instead of letting the market run with the easing narrative, they’re quietly leaning on the long end. And the wild part is the Fed doesn’t even control longer term rates. The market does. The Fed only nudges the overnight rate. The 2 year, the 10 year, mortgages, all of that trades on growth expectations, inflation expectations, and supply and demand. And there is a massive supply wave coming: roughly $9 trillion in Treasuries and over a trillion in commercial real estate refinancing between now and 2026. That supply alone can keep long term yields elevated even in a slowdown especially if the Fed refuses to touch duration. So when Miran says this move is “not dovish,” I believe him. They stopped draining the pool so the water level wouldn’t fall dangerously low but they didn’t turn on the hose. They’re still keeping the deep end roped off. From where I sit, the roadmap looks like this….short term rates fall as the economy softens…long term yields stay sticky because of supply and the Fed’s refusal to buy duration…the curve steepens…and risk assets get mixed signals, some relief at the front end, but no fireworks across the board. In other words, the Fed is preparing for slower growth and shaping what that slowdown looks like before it hits. That’s how I see it. @DiMartinoBooth @SantiagoAuFund @GeorgeGammon @DowdEdward

THE LOS ANGELES DODGERS ARE BACK-TO-BACK WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS!

The NYSE welcomes @andrewrsorkin to celebrate the release of "1929: Inside the Greatest Crash in Wall Street History—and How It Shattered a Nation." @VikingBooks | @nytimes | @dealbook

SHOHEI OHTANI'S SECOND HOMER OF THE NIGHT TIE GAME! #WORLDSERIES

Subprime Lender PrimaLend Enters Bankruptcy After Bond Default

Carvana $CVNA is currently the biggest house of cards on the market. The drastic rise in its stock price is mainly due to financial engineering, such as its PIK-interest debt. All notes that were exchanged during the restructuring in 2022/2023 will see mandatory 9% cash interest later in 2025. This means that the positive cash flows that propelled the stock to dangerous levels since the crash should go back to what they were historically by early 2026. Furthermore, Carvana remains a used car seller that relies on gimmicky marketing strategies to gain customers, thus clearly not deserving of a P/E higher than 80, around 7x more than its more established peers, AutoNation and CarMax. More on that here: seekingalpha.com/article/483…