投机/赌博是关于人性阴暗面的博弈 赌博者的心路历程，往往从对美好的向往开始，由贪婪的介入，最终迷失，徘徊在毁灭的边缘 参与赌博的人，最开始通常是理性的：“我赚多少就收手”“亏多少就走人” 但随着游戏进行，数字和金钱的浮动会让参与赌博经验不丰富的人心态漂移 他开始逐渐想要更多，或者希望“要是没输过这一把打平就好，就当没来过” 然后再加注，或者填更多的钱进场 ---- 先说赢钱 你觉得在赌场里赢了钱就是好事吗？不是的，赢到钱只是这游戏的刚刚开始 赢钱会摧毁你的多巴胺回路，让你对金钱的概念与正常世界混淆，本来你一个月辛辛苦苦赚两万块，在赌场里原来只需要猜对一下就可以了，如此简单的游戏 只要通过赌博赢到钱，恶魔的种子就种下了，恶魔不在乎那一点小几率你赢走的好处，因为他一定会在未来十倍百倍地收回所有的成本 去观察绝大多数游戏，内部都有类似的成瘾赌博机制的设计，武器强化的概率、材料合成的概率、抽奖概率等等 只需要一次10%甚至50%概率，1:1赔率的胜利，人脑的神经回路就足以永久性摧毁 因为钱代表着可能性，一切无穷的可能性和享受，你越重视钱，这个回馈给你的反应就越强烈，在你心里的种子就扎根越深，除非你是不在乎钱的人 不过，不在乎钱的人，压根不会进入赌场，这就是最大的吊诡 而如果你又连胜，你会逐渐增强自信，随着胜利越来越多，人不会越来越警惕，而是越发狂热，越发不把概率当回事，觉得自己永远都是概率正确的一方 人越觉得平安无事，恶魔的脚步就近了，清算的时刻就近了，你觉得越安全，就越容易放松资金控管，等到再给你一个看上去很好的机会，你一把压上去，全盘输光 比如百家乐的平局是1:9赔率，这一台已经25次都是庄闲压根没有平局了，你开始压平，压了十次到35次，依旧没出平，你还要继续压吗 如果不压，你之前的沉没成本全部白费，“万一下一次出了岂不可惜”，那你就会拿着剩下的资金继续压，直到所有资金耗干，你打了一盒从头到尾都没有平局的台 而如果你坚持撤出，下一局就给你开平，让你在错失和后悔里自责，【这就是为什么前两天我写不要自责】而你的自我责备又是这种子的养分，会增大赌瘾在你心里的影响 “下一次坚持自己的判断就好了” 真的吗？在赌场里坚持判断？你确定？ --- 再说输钱 输掉你本来预设的钱之后，两种走法，第一种是永远再也不来，接受这个损失，恭喜你你从赌场全身而退了，这里对你来说就是个骗局，没有吃到你自以为的奖赏是神给你的恩赐 第二种是，你觉得“我不能输钱”“我至少要把输掉的赢回来”，恭喜你进入了堕落的深渊 那么你继续充值，在这个过程里，赢钱的路径在上面推演完毕了，而你一定会输光，答案就在刚才结尾的，“下次我要相信自己” 相信自己是自我毁灭的必经之路 你只能相信概率，而不应该相信自己，相信自己是一种狂妄的自大，你在赌场里除了简单地押大小，你并没有做任何对社会有益的事情，凭什么你能拿到钱 因为钱只是在无数的赌徒之间，被命运安排着流转而已，和你所谓的“自我”“能力”“感觉”毫无关联 在一次又一次地输钱之后，窟窿越来越大，以前本来很小的微不足道的损失，可能是一顿饭，可能是一个月的工资，逐渐扩大到一年的工资，五年的工资，十年的工资，一辆车，一套房... 微小的痛苦，在你自己不服输不认输的，自以为是“我要对身边人负责”，而实际上是“不承认自己是输家”“承认自己输了很丢脸”的维护自我ego的路上，不断扩大，不断自我繁殖增长 你所有的自责和痛苦，都驱使着你把更多的钱押进来，为了搏那一点虚无缥缈的可能，而一切只是为了回到原来最初的起点，最初那个从来没赌过的自己 反而是对钱越在意，越想承担责任的人，越容易在这种自我亏损的负面循环里无限沉沦 最后被赌场的概率榨干，成为一具身上背着千万负债，身无分文的行走着的干尸 ---- 如果来赌，就要接受自己本身的无能为力，要明白自己只是尽自己所能，尝试去搏一点微小的概率偏移 作为参与赌博的人，我们为世界创造的价值为0，参与赌博的最终结局也一定是0，而作为被抽水的参与赌博的人，综合收益是负 你只是参与赌博，你只是执行了赌博的动作，但这不代表着你对赌博的结果和过程有任何影响，你的影响是0 赌局不在乎你，赌场也不在乎你 「然而，敬虔加上知足的心便是大利了； 因為我們沒有帶甚麼到世上來，也不能帶甚麼去。 只要有衣有食，就當知足。 但那些想要發財的人，就陷在迷惑、落在網羅和許多無知有害的私慾裏，叫人沉在敗壞和滅亡中。 貪財是萬惡之根。有人貪戀錢財，就被引誘離了真道，用許多愁苦把自己刺透了。」 提摩太前書 6:6-10

BTC和黄金的底部关联也印证了这个猜想，该现象总在周期末期出现。道理也很简单，投降时刻总是以流动性拐点为界。 某种意义上，4000的黄金和60000的比特币一样，走到了空头市场的最后阶段。

黄金在触及夏季次低点后（$4000/oz）进入最后疲软阶段，预计在9/10月完成宏观底部。 如下半年（大类资产）同步去杠杆触发无差别清算，可能会引发金价最后一跌。一个担忧是近期“财政扩张 巨头融资 大型IPO”对储蓄池的争夺愈发激烈，导致久期供给问题不但没有改善，且又要面临： 1）日、德长端收益率-期限溢价再次定价； 2）美联储换届而货币政策悬而未决； 这让目前压舱石科技-半导体处在非常脆弱境地。时逢中期选举将近，需提前警惕科技-半导体无差别去杠杆，引发黄金、比特币的最后一跌。 因此，2026下半年不宜再看空黄金，而应考虑积累准备。

Bitcoin's story have been changed from "transaction" to "digital gold" But actually that's not big problem. USDC USDT did transactions work well and nobody wanna use 10m per block for daily transactions. But Bitcoin also didn't stick to "digital gold" story too long. Now Coretards saying "Bitcoin is a public ledger which anyone could put any data on it as long as they paid the fees" So Bitcoin did a switch from "everybody currency " to "digital gold" to "public database" Well... if I wanna public database why wouldn't I use ETH

My bank just debanked me today. They froze all my funds and said they are "ending our partnership." I can't withdraw anything, can't transfer funds out, nothing. They said I have to wait for a letter once their review is complete, which will take around 10 business days after the investigation finishes. If I didn’t have accounts in my girlfriend’s name and a stack of Monero, I’d be completely fucked. American banks can trap your money and leave you helpless. STACK monero:native

The end of Bitcoin’s bear market may take a little longer than many expect. Like it or not, this signal has been highly accurate, and we need to keep watching it closely. I’ll record a video for everyone with a real overview of what we’re seeing and the story the data is telling. Stay tuned.

Yeah have been thinking about this for a while In the end I decided not to buy BTC until a final result comes out about BIP-110

Strategy's Junk Bond Yield

Which should tell you something (

When the annual change in the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread turns positive, Bitcoin tends to weaken. And this change is rising again! This indicator measures the extra premium investors demand to buy high-risk U.S. corporate bonds compared to Treasuries. When it rises on an annual basis, the signal is simple. The market is demanding more return to take on risk. This usually reflects worsening credit conditions, lower appetite for speculative assets, and a less favorable environment for BTC. Bitcoin does not react only to the halving or narratives, it also reacts to liquidity, credit, and global risk perception. As long as this YoY spread continues to push higher, the market tends to become more defensive. Come explore our huge collection of macroeconomic charts at Alphractal.com

Good morning. Just a daily reminder that these garbage JPEGs are in your Bitcoin node and your node is still keep downloading them. Thank you.

现在be like:

“行业在收窄，职业身份变得更羞于启齿，而更深层的问题则是：这个行业是否已经被证伪？自己这些年的职业经验是否正在快速贬值？要不要及时止损，转向其他行业？当然，事实上已经有大量的人主动或被动离开了。” 因为这个圈子从一开始就是黑产，比特币从一开始就是诈骗犯毒洗钱反政府抗监管，说什么金融技术吹什么区块链革命都是台面上装一装的，核心到底是啥心里都清楚 本来就是黑产，CEX至今也没有多少传统金融的正规监管，当然我们币圈人也习惯了，甚至1011哪怕明摆着是CZ玩当机了我也会说如果你亏依旧是你自己的问题 那现在比特币被收编了，华尔街正规etf来了，链分析机构都把BTC渗透成筛子了，干净的币和黑产币分得门儿清，诈骗VC们的故事讲了一轮又一轮，在这一轮终于因为SOL的meme彻底叙事破产，什么区块链革命，咱们就纯发币美其名曰注意力经济，发币炒K割人就完了 如果你真问比特币/区块链能做什么，那就是反政府抗监管，无法被监视黑产洗钱无法控制的价值转移，本来也就是做这个的，赋予个人自由那是往好听了说 现在正规化了，可不自然就觉得行业没希望了吗，徐护士这种人家之前要跟他对瓶吹敌敌畏的韭菜割多了，喊一喊合规，那是老板要上岸，这个圈子里韭菜喊合规纯粹是找死 现在合规咯，你们开心了吗 当然也和比特币越做越大有关系，越来越大被人盯上之后就要被管起来了，被管起来的东西还有什么alpha

The risk of strc Will we see that day coming?

i mean, it wasn't all marketplaces but at this time and age, if i see a deepweb market place taking bitcoin for whatever I'll assume it's run by feds or idiots

Bitcoin's cyclical nature has often been called into question, yet it has not been invalidated so far. As a result, this bear market may not be all that different from previous ones. 💥 One characteristic shared by every bear market is that they have all eventually put LTHs under significant pressure. Today, the LTH realized price stands around $49,500, while the Short Term Holder (STH) realized price is hovering near $72,500. 👉 In every previous bear market, the STH cost basis eventually fell below the LTH cost basis. We are getting closer to that point, and if it were to happen again, it would suggest that the bear market still has several months left to run.

No, I'm 100% correct that issuing MSTR stock and buying BTC with the proceeds is always dilutive to BPS when mNAV<1.0-- not just some weeks lol. There's no good theoretical reason for mNAV to ever be positive again for BTC treasury companies (unless attached to an operating biz with strong free cash flow, which is not Strategy) and so I believe that inevitably ii) will have to take precedence over i). What you've done in the past is irrelevant today since debt and preferred levels are much higher now and basic mNAV was not broken back then. You're now stuck financing future BTC purchases at junk bond interest rates (I know STRC is a preferred, but you get what I mean), and the market has been demanding higher and higher effective dividend yields for STRC, even though SOFR has fallen over the past 6 months. Market is telling you that STRC is extremely risky. I wouldn't be able to sleep at night if I had my retirement savings in it. I hope I'm wrong and wish you and your shareholders the best

I would not recommend putting your monero directly into a KYC exchange. I'd recommend using the BTC atomic swap if you must offramp with kyc, but honestly I'd try to offramp without kyc and there are options and also plenty of markets that will sell goods (use a PO box w fake name ideally) for monero directly. The IP leak just like if you use a good VPN should make it so you're good to go. Also, keep in mind thos Chainalysis approach will not work at all after FCMP upgrade this year. If the case studies are like 1 example with IP leak, an example with Japanese retards using tradfi on and off ramps, and an example of using a KYC exchange directly from your wallet, that's pretty damn good for monero's street cred given that every digital criminals operation is using it.

If #BIP110 doesn't win, you will all be locked out of the "Core devs" group forever, and they will do whatever they want to #Bitcoin, and you won't stop them.

Code is written by human. Bitcoin "needs" to be "updated". So those saying "everything will be fine on Bitcoin" are ignorant.