#Bitcoin Is the simulation going to repeat itself? Notice how in each cycle, $BTC has been bottoming slightly higher, taking the 0.768 Fib as the cycle low reference. While Bitcoin’s upside has seen diminishing returns, each bear market has also suffered a smaller drawdown. Patterns break at some point. So far, the 4-year cycle is undeniable, even though people are already saying that this time it will finally be different. Maybe it is.. Who knows? But if the simulation repeats, then $40k–$50k should be the ultimate target, IMHO.

When the parabola breaks, you wait. Gold as example.

I like what I see. This is still how I'm playing it. I would avoid waiting for a market crash as any kind of reference for timing or reason to wait. Remember, while some things are definitely inevitable, inevitability is often a terrible trade/investment strategy. In the end it's all about timing. It can take decades for inevitability to arrive. I bring this up because this seems to be what everyone is afraid of, and quite frankly I see no reason not to be bullish on metals and miners right now. Even if the market were to crash in the near future, it doesn't even matter. We knowingly have a plan for that too. We know what the response would be. We know everything we need to know already. In terms of both price and timing, the weekly 50ema & 200ema on physical gold are still the "must buy" retracement markers which I've literally spent years talking about. Years. That's because I knew when the bull market finally came, we'd have to deal with these types of situations and 'uncertainties' and I wanted everyone mentally prepared well in advance. If gold were to ride along/under the W50ema rather than bounce from it, you're in an accumulation phase rather than a pivot low. That's the only other nuance you need to understand. The plan is unchanged. The strategy is unchanged. The precedent is unchanged. The macro is still in play. The drivers behind the bull market are strengthening, even if they're temporarily and naturally offset for a moment. The plan was never to check golds performance along the way against some sloping trendline. This is no longer the type of analysis that will get you anywhere. The plan has always been to buy major retracements using the weekly 50/200ema as the definitive guide with a clear understanding of what each of them meant in terms of expectations. Today, gold is slightly below the W50ema. So what? That doesn't mean it's headed towards the 200. It's not unusual in a bull run to see it skirt a little below like it is now. This is normal. I've talked about this a lot in the past too. We also predicted that many new precedent would be set during this bull run. We've been vindicated so far. Some of the new precedent you could argue is actually the lack of prior precedent being true this time around. Things are absolutely different this time. Make no mistake. I would like to compile all of the things I'm seeing the share in the near future. I'm still very interested in the gold/oil ratio and what it's been able to tell us historically vs what's happening now. I'll have to write a standalone update about all of that later. I feel like I'm zeroing in on something but it's too early to say. The miners are in the process of back testing their new precedent of breakout distance from moving averages just as gold dips a bit below the W50ema all of which is in confluence. Some are already there, some need a little further to go. It's not uncommon for me to post around this point in time of a cycle... The deja vu of explaining these conditions is strong. So once again we have confluence of miners backtesting critical support of their recent moving average breakout levels with gold skirting the weekly 50ema all while being oversold and scary to buy. Those of you who've followed me long enough know what this means already... That we're likely to see confluence across the mining sector retracing these backtests and all completing before the next mega rally. To clarify... This mostly applies to flagship names retesting their distance from moving average price supports. At least 90% or so of them need to complete this backtest before we can proceed again. All looks good to me. I saw an email from Don Durrett recently, suggesting that his followers not be traders in this bull market. For 95% of you, this is spot-on advice. It's best to continually invest on major dips with a multi-year investment strategy. That's where you're at today, if you're a bull. I personally see no reason to sell, but do see reasons to add new tranches. I can't speak to whether we get an immediate pivot bottom here or run boringly sideways for a few weeks. To get a pivot you'd need a little more fast and hard selling. But we're back into a buy zone regardless. #gold #silver

"This cycle will be nothing like the 1970s!" 🤡

#Gold (1d) I think the bottom is in for gold. We haven’t been this deeply oversold in gold since October 2023. Sentiment has been reset. second chart, could take us back down to $3,600 if things unfold worse than expected. Ihope, that this remains purely theoretical.

Precious metals are approaching a major buying window. The biggest long-term gains come from buying when sentiment is washed out and the charts look worst. That's the lowest risk. But you must know what you're buying and its real value.

Silver dropped almost 50% from June 1968 to November 1971, and then rallied ~420% into February 1974. Silver then dropped ~43% into 1976 and then rallied ~1150% by January 1980. Silver dropped 60% from March to October 2008 and then rallied ~490%. Gold dropped almost 30% in late-1973 and then rallied almost 100%...and then dropped ~25% and then rallied another 45% all by January 1975. Gold dropped 50% in 1975 and 1976 and then rallied ~770% by Jan 1980. Gold dropped ~26% in 2006 and then rallied 90%. Gold dropped ~35% in 2008 and then rallied 180%. This sell-off since January 2026 is now the third largest silver has ever had within the context of a bull market, and for gold it's the the fourth largest...almost on par with the 1973 correction and nearly on par with the Great Financial Crisis. In terms of time from top to bottom, this is more akin to the 1973 correction (about 20 weeks) or 2006 (about 20 weeks). All of these drops led to enormous V-bottom rallies, some so rapid that if they repeated today it would mean $8000 gold by October.

Gold <200-DMA. Silver <200-DMA. Gold Miners Bullish % Index = 0.00. The only other time miner sentiment hit absolute zero was the Dec 2015 bottom — right before lift-off. Peak pessimism, meet contrarian. In Gold We Trust. 🥇 #gold #silver #goldstocks ht @Brien_Lundin for the chart!

RT @ColinTCrypto: Bitcoin Corollary Bear-Market-Continuation Indicators It's somewhat easy for me to conclude, with a high degree of cert…

Silver is washed out. The last two times it got this oversold, it marked major bottoms: 2023 and 2025. Bullish Miners % Index is currently at ZERO.

Who wants to be the guy that steps up and sells into a reading of zero. Many did today. We will pour one out for the homies.

The Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index drops to zero. Yes, you read that correctly. Historical 👀🔥 Total capitulation.

$GDX - Flash Update At an interesting confluence level ( Green 63-period average. Ichimoku cloud, Blue falling wedge support band which all sit at the 38% Fibonacci retrace level). See full post free here👇 open.substack.com/pub/sahara…

a quick look at silver: Day 28 of DC2. Silver continues to look for a DCL as price drops lower and begins to crawl along the lower Bollinger band. At the time of this post, the RSI(5) is now below 10; a level not seen in 4 yrs as a closing print. At 28 days, silver is in the timing band for a DCL. With a lower cycle low today, this will be the 17th day that silver has remained below the 10 dma. Continue to watch for a swing low as the first step of a potential DCL. For bears, the message is the same as yesterday, enjoy the show, but stay near the exits as the indicators are at extremes. Steady as she goes, captain. #Silver

What will happen in the coming days, I have no idea, but I assume that in exactly one week the metals will start rising again 😎 #Silver #Gold

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Silver testing the lower band of a 4-month channel for the 3rd time. Silver tested $89.50 around mid May and here we are again around $67. Silver testing our conviction once again. Those hanging by a thread got flushed out last Friday and next comes a psychological warfare. Only those who could handle extreme pressure are going to survive - this is not just an ordinary market. Extreme pressure is usually exerted before very big moves...

$SILJ will likely have a bounce back this week, the significance of it will tell whether it’s a dead cat bounce or a sentiment change.

RT @garysavage1: This half 8 year cycle low has certainly taken longer than I anticipated but I'm not in the camp this is the end of the bu…

RT @ColinTCrypto: $BTC bear markets generally take a long time to form. They are boring at the bottom and people give up. There's usual…