“It’s all in the land”… 18.6 year real estate cycle … Gann student … EV Lithium … Carlton FC …Tweets are my own opinion and not advice

Joined April 2012
613 Photos and videos
Luke Cashmore retweeted
I'll just post my Senate submissions here, given Labor is refusing to do so: Link to my first submission saying the new CGT tax rate is 50%, highest in the world, economy wrecking 147% above world average. All the calculations are transparently provided: docs.google.com/document/d/1…

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Luke Cashmore retweeted
That’s genuine analysis from David M, 60 per cent increase in CGT tax from 56,000 runs on historical data, in contrast to the gaslighting and dishonesty from Jim C on this giant CGT tax grab! x.com/David_McMahon75/status…

I’m seeing lots of assertions that the CGT policy changes won’t affect the average share market investor. This is dead wrong. I simulated 50,000 different 20-stock portfolios using actual historical share price returns on 26,000 stocks. The typical investor is far worse off.
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There’s a rather large amount of Oil and Gas no longer required …
China Petrol Car Sales Trend: 2017: 23.6m (historical peak) 2018: 21.4 2019: 19.6 2020: 17.8 2021: 17.1 2022: 14.8 2023: 13.9 2024: 11.4 2025: 10.9 2026(e): 7.2 >16.4m annual loss since 2017 is larger than the annual passenger car markets of the US and Japan combined
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Luke Cashmore retweeted
Geoff, don't forget every Fortescue, every Northern Star, every PLS. These multi-billion-dollar companies started as penny dreadful exploration companies led by a leader with a dream to create something big. All within the last 20 years. How many jobs have been created? How much tax has been paid along the way? All of this is about to disappear offshore! Why invest in Australia if the incentive is gone? Australia deserves better. @GeoffWilsonWAM
Australians deserve better. Wake up @AlboMP and @JEChalmers . Reverse this madness before the damage is permanent. Spot on @leighjasper. Doubling CGT to a world-high 47% isn’t ‘closing loopholes’ it’s economic vandalism that smashes aspiration, kills startups, and exports our best talent and future companies to the US and Asia. Every founder now rethinking Australia. Every high-skilled job at risk. The innovation machine is being deliberately broken. This isn’t a budget. It’s a declaration of war on mobile capital and the next Atlassian, Afterpay, Aconex or Canva #AussieDreamKiller #ScrapTheCGTHeist #LaborTaxRaid
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Luke Cashmore retweeted
2026 will be the biggest annual decline in China's ICE vehicle sales! Two or three more 2026-size declines and ICE will be no more!
China Petrol Car Sales Trend: 2017: 23.6m (historical peak) 2018: 21.4 2019: 19.6 2020: 17.8 2021: 17.1 2022: 14.8 2023: 13.9 2024: 11.4 2025: 10.9 2026(e): 7.2 >16.4m annual loss since 2017 is larger than the annual passenger car markets of the US and Japan combined
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Luke Cashmore retweeted
EVs cut down the EU’s oil imports ✂️ And the region can manufacture as much as 4.6 million EVs annually, nearly DOUBLE the current demand of 2.5 million. In 2025, EVs avoided 67 million barrels of oil imports worth €4.1bn 🇪🇺 ember-energy.org/latest-insi…
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Luke Cashmore retweeted
Jun 13
Big news for the lithium market: China just announced a major plan to scale electric heavy-duty trucks, aiming for 40% market penetration and a fleet of over 1.6 million vehicles by 2030. Given the massive battery size needed for these trucks, this is a huge long-term demand flag
China has set out a plan to scale up electric heavy-duty trucks, targeting 40% market penetration and a fleet exceeding 1.6 million vehicles by 2030 bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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Luke Cashmore retweeted
If Space X was Australian every single one of those employees would be taxed at 47%! Their reward for taking the risk and the effort to becoming successful! Fortunately for them they aren’t in Australia. The Australian Labor Gov thinks it’s their right to this money! 47% of $2T certainly pays off their $1T debt bill pretty quickly! Unfortunately for them Australia will never have a Space X and the gov will miss out of 23.5% of any CGT that would have come in to pay off the debt! Time to leave Australia any aspiring entrepreneurs @GeoffWilsonWAM
Elon Musk criou, em um único dia, 4.400 novos milionários. Quase 400 deles ultrapassaram os US$ 100 milhões. Não são banqueiros nem investidores de risco. São funcionários da SpaceX: soldadores, técnicos, mecânicos e até funcionários da cantina. Durante vinte anos, a empresa pagou gente de todos os níveis com ações, não só com salário alto. Quem produziu colheu. Juan Hernandez, imigrante mexicano, aceitou um emprego de soldador por US$ 28 a hora em 2015, sem nem saber direito o que era a SpaceX. Recebeu uma pequena participação de US$ 10 mil e pôde comprar mais por desconto em folha. Hoje sua fatia vale US$ 880 mil. Trevor Hise ignorou os conselhos dos pais para pegar um emprego “seguro” na General Electric. Escolheu a SpaceX, ficou 12 anos e acumulou mais de 100 mil ações. Ao preço da listagem, são US$ 13,5 milhões. Aos 37 anos, ele já pode se aposentar. Palavras dele: “A magnitude disso é ridícula.” O detalhe mais eloquente veio antes mesmo da abertura de capital: mais de 100 funcionários se uniram discretamente para contratar uma gestora de fortunas capaz de cuidar de até US$ 5 bilhões. Muitos nunca tinham precisado de wealth manager na vida. Há décadas os IPOs de empresas de tecnologia enriquecem programadores. Desta vez, o dinheiro chegou ao chão de fábrica. Isso é capitalismo de verdade: quem arrisca, quem trabalha e quem entrega valor colhe frutos proporcionais. A esquerda odeia esse tipo de história. Porque ela prova que a verdadeira ascensão social não vem de dividir a miséria alheia, mas de criar riqueza que eleva quem tem coragem de construir.
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Luke Cashmore retweeted
RECORD BREAKING WEEK: #EVs Capture Two-thirds of 🇨🇳 China’s Car Market in Record-Breaking Week Higher #EV penetration > more #batteries > more #lithium demand Long-term demand story for lithium KEEPS GETTING STRONGER 💪🏼🔋📈 @ElevraLithium $ELV #NAL $LAC scmp.com/business/china-evs/…
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Luke Cashmore retweeted
The US government, citing national security authorities, has issued an export control directive to suspend all access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 by any foreign national, whether inside or outside the United States, including foreign national Anthropic employees. The net effect of this order is that we must abruptly disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all our customers to ensure compliance. Access to all other Claude models is not affected. We apologize for this disruption to our customers. We believe this is a misunderstanding and are working to restore access as soon as possible. Read our full statement: anthropic.com/news/fable-myt…
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This legislation aligns perfectly with “friend-shoring” — shifting supply chains away from China toward reliable allies. Potential upsides for ASX-listed lithium companies (e.g., Pilbara Minerals, Mineral Resources, or developers/explorers) include: • Increased U.S. diplomatic and financial support for Australian projects. • More opportunities for offtake agreements, joint ventures, or direct U.S. investment/equity stakes in Australian lithium assets. • Help diversifying buyers away from heavy dependence on Chinese processors/refiners. • Tailwinds for building or expanding processing capacity in Australia or allied networks.
Jun 11
House passes DOMINANCE Act to reduce U.S. reliance on Chinese critical minerals - mugglehead.com/house-passes-…
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Labour destroying this country FAST 💨
CGT: Australia's Great Mining Giveaway: 86% Foreign Owned. 47% Taxed at Home. x.com/goodfoodgal/status/206… I'm going to explain why we are the Lucky Country's Last Generation. Singapore's Lee Kuan Yew once said: "Australia was indeed a lucky country with an embarrassment of riches" and was "A relaxed, not an intense society." We no longer own the majority of those "embarrassment of riches", and that "relaxed not intense society" has allowed our politicians to adversely tax our own population while making it progressively easier for foreigners to have the windfall profits, and progressively own Australia's assets. To illustrate, let's look at how the proposed CGT system works with our mining sector. Firstly let's totally stun you by looking at the ownership of Australian mining companies....Treasury's own figures confirm our miners are 86% foreign owned... WTF! australiainstitute.org.au/po… If you look at every $100 generated by mining company, $30 goes in wages and production, $30 is swiped by state and federal governments (eg royalties), $15 goes to foreigners, $15 goes to suppliers and businesses, and finally $10 goes to Australian shareholders. That's before we are taxed. Yep, $10. And now the government wants to slap you with the full blown capital gains tax of 47% on that measly amount of capital gain. Now those fellas overseas are not going to be paying that, they are probably paying nothing. And it doesn't stop there, while most Australians pay around 45c per litre in fuel tax, mining companies usually pay nothing, a tax break worth over $3.5 billion to the mining industry each year. A mining industry that is not predominantly owned by Australian companies. As a proportion of total employment in the country it's about 2%, so they're hardly big employers, compared to over 2 million in health related jobs. In fact if you look outside of the royalties paid by the miners, as a proportion of overall tax take very little comes from them. Over the last decade the mining industry paid $254 billion in tax, while total government revenue reached almost $6.8 trillion. So proportionally they pay sweet bugger all. Who pays the majority of tax? You do, predominantly income tax. Now they want to shaft you with unprotected capital gains tax as well. Part of the reason that all this happens is that we are led by people in the video below. Our politicians tend to be lifelong political hacks, union hacks, occasional lawyers, but almost never successful business people, engineers, doctors, or other technocrats that actually do things to create value. Almost never. In comparison,China and Singapore go to a great deal of trouble to make sure that their government executive has technocratic skill, as you can see here x.com/toy59496/status/205992… All of that mining revenue has not produced a sovereign wealth fund for our descendants, or even a budget surplus for us, but is simply used up on social spending like NDIS. It's a non renewable resource and when it's gone it is gone, and it shows our great contempt for the next generation, and future generations, who will see us as the self-centered halfwit generation who sold them down the river while letting foreigners bask in the bounty of the time. I don't think this is assisted by having a country where a third of the population were not born here which must at some level weaken our collective intention to look after the integrity of our future generations. If it goes crap they'll just move back. Usually they have somewhere to move back to... We do not. So now the government wants to tax us more, so we have almost the highest tax rate in the world on income, and with what pitiful residual we get to keep to invest, we then get the highest capital gain tax rate in the world. While foreigners who not only own 86% of our mining companies pay nothing for their capital gain. Obviously that ownership will increase and it is probably so high already because of these asymmetric taxation incentives. I mean how much is left not to own? Ultimately the good decisions of many of our potential adversaries is infinitely wiser than our own. We will lose the economic war. Because we are led by people like our finance minister below.
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Luke Cashmore retweeted
I've been getting questions on the #lithium price pullback and market balance.. so here are some broad thoughts and analyses: Demand: - Iran war is massively stimulating switch to EVs. EV sales 90-160% in many countries YoY Apr 2026. Last year's headlines were doom & gloom about "slowing EV sales". In reality, BEVs PHEVs were 20.7m units, pretty healthy. This year I forecast a re-acceleration in EV sales - lithium use 210kt LCE YoY. - BESS growth is pretty insane. Last year installations/shipments were ~320/500GWh. This year it's looking like ~500/850GWh. FYI 850GWh --> ~600kt LCE used in those cells so this segment alone might consume 30% of lithium supply this year. - E-Trucks: Grew 180% (!!) YoY in China last year. More broadly, the Class 4-8 segment represented 5% (86kt LCE) of lithium supply last year and it's just starting to go up the steep part of the S-curve globally. If your analyst doesn't have this in his model, he's missing 150kt LCE use this year. - Overall, global lithium demand grows from 1.5Mt last year to 2.0Mt in 2026, a 500kt LCE jump. Supply: - Mine restarts: To this year's supply, Bald Hill adds 8kt LCE. Ngungajoo adds 10kt. Finniss adds 10kt. Small-ish vs the demand growth. - Mt Holland "doubling capacity": Won't happen until 2028. - CATL Jianxiawo mine: Even if it turned on today, it'd produce only 30kt this year. Less considering ramp-up. And there's a cow or two to relocate if recent videos are to be believed. 😉 - Supply growth has been severely constrained in the last two years as companies could not get financing, or built slower. This WILL be felt in 2026 and 2027. Market Balance: - I see a deficit this year growing to 2030. Much of this is based off BESS growth to 1.76TWh ( 17% from my prev forecast) as countries realize they want to reduce natural gas imports dependence. I'm also pounding the table on E-Trucks here. Watch this space. - I respect Benchmark's gutsy call for a 2027 surplus. I disagree though. They have been pretty conservative on demand forecasts and I think this year will surprise many analysts.
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Luke Cashmore retweeted
That's the direct link to my 24 minute podcast saying we have highest CGT rate in the world at 50%, and 147% above the world average; government has stuffed it up really bad, hurts youngsters the most etc: youtube.com/watch?v=vuXKinA9…
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Albo is gone !!!
I don’t think Albo is coming back from this one… @PaulineHansonOz One Nation just raised 1.674m and about to hit 1.8 mill!
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This new CGT hurts young people the MOST …
Will Labor's tax changes make it even harder for young Australians to buy a home? Economist Derek Francis thinks so, saying the Treasury has significantly underestimated the impact on investors and future wealth creation. Karl Weekly live at 5pm tonight.
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Guess what’s Labours next target ?
This is what gets me. The new CGT laws make it borderline irresponsible to invest in anything outside of PPOR and super.
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Luke Cashmore retweeted
Jun 9
JUST IN: SpaceX plans put AI data centers in space next year
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Luke Cashmore retweeted
Here’s a rough size comparison between @SpaceX’s new AI Satellite vs. Starlink V3, V2, and V1.5 satellites. Elon Musk says AI Satellites are much simpler to design and build than Starlink Satellites.
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SpaceX is positioning itself as the power grid for AI, in space. The race for AI compute just left the planet. Literally.
Okay this is genuinely insane. SpaceX just unveiled a satellite whose only job is to run AI. Not internet. Not GPS. Just compute, floating in orbit. It's called AI1, and the reason behind it breaks your brain. AI data centers on Earth are hitting a wall, not a chip wall, a physics wall. They need staggering amounts of power and water just to stay cool, and we're running out of grid and land to build them. So Musk's answer is: stop building them on Earth. In orbit, the sun never sets. Free power, 24/7. No water for cooling, you just radiate heat into the vacuum of space. The two things choking AI on the ground barely exist up there. And here's the wild part: Musk says it's easier to build than a Starlink satellite. Strip out the complex antennas and it's "a lot of solar cells, a radiator, and some laser links." One AI1 carries the compute of an Nvidia GB300 rack, the same hardware data centers fight over down here. AI1 is just the first one. The plan is a constellation of up to a million of them. And the timing isn't an accident, SpaceX goes public this week at a ~$1.75 trillion target. This isn't a rocket company anymore. It's positioning itself as the power grid for AI, in space. The race for AI compute just left the planet. Literally. @SpaceX
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